Assoc.Prof.Dr. Nguyen Thuong Lang: It is forecasted that import and export in 2025 will exceed 1,000 billion USD.

The growth momentum of import and export in 2024 is very large. It is forecasted that by 2025, with favorable weather conditions, Vietnam's import and export turnover could exceed 1,000 billion USD.

Associate Professor, Dr. Nguyen Thuong Lang - Senior Lecturer, Institute of International Trade and Economics, National Economics University, had an interview with reporters of Industry and Trade Newspaper about this issue.

How do you evaluate the picture of import and export of goods in 2024?

Import and export in 2024 will reach an unprecedented record in 40 years of renovation. This is certain. Import and export will likely reach 780 - 800 billion USD. This is within reach. To achieve this figure, there are many efforts from businesses and the Government.

Import and export in 2024 will surpass the target. Photo: MH

Firstly , on the business side, due to the fear of falling behind after the Covid-19 pandemic, Vietnamese businesses are struggling to rise up, invest more, recover strongly and bring import-export growth to nearly 15%.

In addition to the efforts of enterprises, import-export activities are also supported by the very harmonious policies of the State, Government, Ministries and branches. At the same time, with favorable conditions from the market and weather, in which, the increase in international market prices is beneficial for Vietnam's export goods, especially the prices of many agricultural, forestry and fishery products.

Second , the change in the global political structure, especially the fluctuations in the world market related to the US-China competition, has led to favorable conditions for Vietnamese goods. These are unexpected advantages.

Third , some barriers on green, organic, net emissions, these standards at first we hear feel very difficult, but when we start doing them, Vietnamese businesses can do them.

It can be seen that with the integration of many factors and these are also the growth drivers of import and export that Vietnam has fully exploited. Import and export in 2024 is considered a very beautiful picture, unprecedentedly beautiful in 40 years of innovation, in terms of structure, scale, market and even the position of Vietnam's trade has fundamentally changed.

Many opinions say that the majority of Vietnam's export turnover is still from foreign-invested enterprises. What is your comment on this?

Vietnam's exports rely on foreign investment. But foreign investment in Vietnam today is very carefully selected in terms of quality, which makes the competitiveness of Vietnamese goods increasingly improved.

Economist, Associate Professor, Dr. Nguyen Thuong Lang

Currently, the capacity of domestic enterprises compared to foreign-invested enterprises (FDI) is not equal to ours. Because FDI corporations have a long history of research, network building, development of modern business models and move at a very fast pace. Vietnamese enterprises will certainly have to learn a lot.

However, we must also frankly admit that Vietnamese enterprises have gradually approached the world's leading importers and exporters, multinational corporations, and although we have not learned thoroughly, there are certain values, we have participated in the chain and tried to go from low to high stages.

In particular, Vietnamese enterprises have also increased cost savings, invested in digital transformation, and green transformation. For small and medium enterprises, this is implemented quickly. This is an advantage.

The coordination mechanism between enterprises and the Government is increasingly closer. The Government accompanies enterprises; enterprises also rely on the Government and other resources. Previously, this was quite separate, but now the cooperation is quite close. Wherever the Government goes, enterprises follow, wherever enterprises go, the Government leads the way. These two things combine to create consensus. As we often say, "One tree cannot make a forest, three trees together can make a high mountain".

With the import-export results achieved in 2024, what is your forecast for this activity in 2025?

The growth momentum of import and export in 2024 is very large, it is forecasted that by 2025, with favorable weather conditions, Vietnam's total import and export turnover could exceed 1,000 billion USD.

So what is the reason for this number? I think that the Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) that we are exploiting have come into effect, Vietnamese businesses are moving strongly. There are many potential and emerging products, such as more than 10,000 OCOP products of localities. If we standardize, complete, and professionalize, combined with the e-commerce platforms that we have built, then a breakthrough is within reach. Not to mention that after many years of learning, Vietnamese businesses have also "caught up" with e-commerce platforms and digital technology, thereby creating a breakthrough in online import and export activities.

In particular, by 2025, when FTAs ​​go into depth, import and export activities will be increasingly expanded, and the scale advantage will be even greater. Therefore, import and export in 2025 will certainly be better and higher than this year.

Is the figure of more than 1,000 billion USD too optimistic, sir, especially in the context of the volatile market and the policies of the re-elected US President that are expected to impose high taxes on global trade, affecting Vietnam's import and export activities?

I think that Vietnam's current warning mechanism is very good, so businesses have avoided trade defense lawsuits. Along with Vietnamese businesses diversifying their markets and developing in chains, Americans will also be willing to share risks when buying Vietnamese goods. They also think of ways to easily import Vietnamese goods.

On the other hand, I believe that US President Donald Trump's policies towards Vietnam will not be treated as harshly as China. If Vietnam's foreign policy is skillful, we will not only avoid risks but also stand before great opportunities in our import-export activities.

The forecast of import and export reaching 1,000 billion USD, we made the forecast 4 years ago. Of course, the opportunity does not come naturally. On the business side, it is necessary to promote exports both directly and online.

In addition, it is necessary to innovate the business model in the direction of saving costs, taking advantage of more technological advances, investing in research and development, investing in chains, professionalizing, carefully studying customer needs to be able to build strategic partnerships with customers, only then can we make great strides. At the same time, Vietnamese enterprises must connect with each other, accumulate and diversify the market.

On the part of the Ministry of Industry and Trade, in the new period, it is also necessary to build a trade strategy in the era of growth. For example, promoting green exports. It is necessary to propose new directions for development, find ways to bring import and export activities along a more specific, clearer, more effective, and faster roadmap. There needs to be a master plan for import and export activities in the new development period with stronger, sharper, more pointed, and higher quality products.

Thank you!

Source: https://congthuong.vn/pgsts-nguyen-thuong-lang-du-bao-xuat-nhap-khau-nam-2025-se-vuot-con-so-1000-ty-usd-365702.html