After many consecutive months of decline, since September 2023, import-export turnover has gradually recovered. Notably, in November, Vietnam's total import-export turnover was estimated at 60.88 billion USD, up 5.9% over the same period last year. This is the third consecutive month that this figure has increased.
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Exports are regaining growth momentum. Illustrative photo: VNA[/caption]However, in the first 11 months of 2023, the total import and export turnover of goods still decreased by 8.3% compared to the same period last year, estimated at 619.17 billion USD due to the decline in the first 8 months of the year. It is likely that Vietnam's total import and export turnover in 2023 will have negative growth despite the recovery in the last months of the year.
Exports regain momentum, imports begin to recover
Regarding goods exports, the export turnover of goods in November 2023 is estimated at 31.08 billion USD, up 6.7% over the same period last year. Of which, the domestic economic sector reached 8.49 billion USD, up 13.5%; the foreign-invested sector (including crude oil) reached 22.59 billion USD, up 4.4%. This is a very positive bright spot when the domestic enterprise sector achieved a high growth rate, 3 times higher than the foreign-invested sector.
In the first 11 months of 2023, the total export turnover of goods was estimated at 322.50 billion USD, down 5.9% over the same period last year. Of which, the domestic economic sector reached 85.94 billion USD, down 2.2%, accounting for 26.6% of total export turnover; the foreign-invested sector (including crude oil) reached 236.56 billion USD, down 7.1%, accounting for 73.4%. Although still down compared to the same period last year, the decrease in export turnover in 11 months has narrowed significantly compared to the decrease of 11.6% in the first 6 months of this year.
In the structure of Vietnam's export goods, there are 33 items with export turnover of over 1 billion USD, accounting for 93.1% of total export turnover, of which 7 items have export turnover of over 10 billion USD, accounting for 66%. Many key export items have positive growth rates compared to the same period last year such as: Electronics, computers and components reached 4.9 billion USD, up 20.2%; Phones of all kinds and components reached 4.7 billion USD, up 3.9%; Machinery, equipment, tools and spare parts reached 4 billion USD, up 5%; Wood and wood products reached 1.2 billion USD, up 1.6%; Means of transport and spare parts reached 1.1 billion USD, up 2.9%; Seafood reached 800 million USD, up 1.4%; Iron and steel reached 586 million USD, up 25.4%.
Regarding goods imports, the import turnover of goods in November 2023 is estimated at 29.8 billion USD, up 1% over the previous month. Of which, the domestic economic sector reached 10.6 billion USD, down 0.4%; the foreign-invested sector reached 19.2 billion USD, up 1.7%. Compared to the same period last year, the import turnover of goods in November increased by 5.1%, of which the domestic economic sector increased by 4.2%; the foreign-invested sector increased by 5.6%.
However, similar to exports, in the first 11 months of 2023, the total import turnover of goods decreased by 10.7% over the same period last year to 296.67 billion USD, of which the domestic economic sector reached 105.94 billion USD, down 8.8%; the foreign-invested sector reached 190.73 billion USD, down 11.7%.
In the structure of Vietnam's imported goods, the group of production materials is estimated at 278.18 billion USD, accounting for 93.8%, of which the group of machinery, equipment, tools and spare parts accounts for 45.6%; the group of raw materials, fuels and materials accounts for 48.2%. The group of consumer goods is estimated at 18.49 billion USD, accounting for 6.2%.
One of the positive points of import turnover in November 2023 is that imports of raw materials for production continued to increase compared to the previous month. Specifically, machinery, equipment, tools and spare parts reached 3.6 billion USD, up 0.9%; plastics reached 1.1 billion USD, up 21.1%; chemical products reached 750 million USD, up 15.9%; plastic products reached 750 million USD, up 15.2%; chemicals reached 700 million USD, up 2.4%; other base metals reached 688 million USD, up 4.5%; raw materials for textiles, garments, footwear and sandals reached 650 million USD, up 30.9%; iron and steel products reached 650 million USD, up 30.4%; rubber reached 299 million USD, up 53%. This sends a positive signal about the recovery prospects of domestic production.
Notably, compared to the same period last year, many items also had a significant increase in import turnover, of which electronics, computers and components increased by 40% (reaching 7.9 billion USD); plastics increased by 13.6%; chemical products increased by 12.3%; plastic products increased by 13.9%; chemicals increased by 7.8%; textile, garment, footwear and sandal materials increased by 30.7%; iron and steel products increased by 28.9%; rubber increased by 24.7%.
In the 11 months of 2023, there were 43 imported items with a value of over 1 billion USD, accounting for 92.2% of total import turnover, of which three imported items were over 10 billion USD, accounting for 43.3%. Of these, electronics, computers and components reached 79.2 billion USD, up 4.1%; pharmaceuticals reached 3.3 billion USD, up 7.3%; cashew nuts reached 3 billion USD, up 17.6%; electric wires and cables reached 2.3 billion USD, up 4.9%; other base metal products reached 2.1 billion USD, up 11.1%; other petroleum products reached 1.6 billion USD, up 13.1%; glass and glass products reached 1.5 billion USD, up 4.9%; liquefied gas reached 1.5 billion USD, up 2.7%.
Due to a stronger decrease in imports than exports (exports decreased by 5.9%, imports decreased by 10.7%), Vietnam's trade balance in 11 months continued to have a trade surplus of 25.83 billion USD, more than double the level of 10.3 billion USD in the same period last year.
Regarding the import and export market of goods in the first 11 months of 2023, the United States is Vietnam's largest export market with an estimated turnover of 88 billion USD. China is Vietnam's largest import market with an estimated turnover of 99.6 billion USD.
Prospects remain difficult
In the context of low global economic growth, weak global consumer demand, increasing protectionist barriers, and continuing military conflicts in many places, Vietnam's import and export situation will continue to face many difficulties in the coming time. Due to economic difficulties, consumers in major economies that are Vietnam's export partners such as the United States and the European Union (EU) tend to cut spending on purchasing common and luxury products, causing a decrease in order volume.
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Unloading containers at Hai Phong port. Photo: Tuan Anh - VNA[/caption]In addition, China’s reopening has also created a lot of competitive pressure on many Vietnamese export products. Meanwhile, our businesses are still facing many difficulties due to a decrease in foreign orders, low purchasing power in the domestic market, high input costs, and limited access to credit.
In that context, to reduce difficulties for export enterprises, the Ministry of Industry and Trade advocates promoting negotiations, signing new agreements, commitments, and trade links, including completing and implementing the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with Israel, signing FTAs and trade agreements with other potential partners (UAE, MERCOSUR, etc.) to diversify markets, products, and supply chains.
On the other hand, the Ministry will support businesses to take advantage of commitments in FTAs, especially the CPTPP, EVFTA, and UKVFTA agreements, to boost exports through disseminating information on rules of origin and issuance of certificates of origin, opportunities and ways to take advantage of opportunities from these agreements.
The Ministry of Industry and Trade will coordinate with the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development to negotiate with China to open more export markets for other Vietnamese fruits and vegetables such as green-skinned grapefruit, fresh coconut, avocado, pineapple, star apple, lemon, melon, etc.; Improve efficiency and regulate the speed of customs clearance of import and export goods at border gates between Vietnam and China, especially for seasonal agricultural and aquatic products; quickly and strongly shift to official export.
In addition, the Ministry also advocates strengthening early warning of trade defense lawsuits; guiding businesses on how to respond to lawsuits; promptly informing businesses and associations about market needs and new regulations./.
Yellow River
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