Western military experts assess that Russia can maintain its military campaign in Ukraine for another year and still maintain the initiative on the battlefield.
According to Reuters. in the nearly 3-year conflict, both Russia and Ukraine have suffered heavy losses. However, experts at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS-UK) said that Russian forces are currently maintaining a "slow but steady" advance at a time when Ukrainian forces are facing many difficulties and uncertainty about the future of US aid under US President Donald Trump.
"With attrition being a major factor on the ground, Russia has the initiative and Ukraine is fighting defensively on the ground. If Russia wants to prolong the war, I think they have the manpower, equipment and logistics to continue doing so for the rest of the year," said Ben Barry, a land warfare analyst at the IISS.
Russia releases images of Ukrainian tanks destroyed in latest attack in Kursk
In its annual assessment of military capabilities, the IISS said Moscow’s total defense spending was higher than Europe’s total defense spending on a purchasing power parity basis. The report also said Russia appeared to be better able to maintain the size of its military than Ukraine.
“While Russia appears to have been able to maintain its forces, Ukraine, which often keeps casualty figures secret, has suffered severe personnel losses with many infantry units understaffed,” the IISS report said.
Ukrainian forces train in Zaporizhzhia region (Ukraine) on February 5, 2025
Recently, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense launched a recruitment campaign to attract people aged 18-24 to join military service for one year to solve the problem of manpower shortage.
However, Russia is currently facing a serious shortage of tanks and armored vehicles, which means it could suffer significant personnel losses on the battlefield. Moscow lost 1,400 tanks by 2024 and is struggling to build enough new tanks to replace those that are out of action in time. The IISS estimates that Russia has lost a total of 4,400 main battle tanks in the war so far.
“The remaining equipment may allow Russia to maintain its current rate of losses in the short term, but a large number of these platforms will require extensive and costly refurbishment,” according to the IISS. Henry Boyd, a military capabilities expert, said Russia would need to significantly expand production of new armored vehicles or seek imports.
Another issue facing Russia is the direction of its economy. Nigel Gould-Davies, a Russia expert at the IISS, said the Russian economy has suffered from a “fundamental currency imbalance” since the extraordinary military operation in Ukraine in February 2022, stressing that this situation is unsustainable “in the long term”.
Russia and Ukraine have not commented on the IISS analysis.
Source: https://thanhnien.vn/iiss-nga-co-the-giu-the-chu-dong-o-ukraine-them-mot-nam-nua-185250213104455995.htm
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