According to data released by the International Trade Administration (ITA) on Monday, non-citizen air travel to the United States fell nearly 10% in March compared to the same month a year earlier. Goldman Sachs estimates that in a worst-case scenario, the impact this year from reduced tourism and boycotts could be as high as 0.3% of gross domestic product, or nearly $90 billion.
Foreign tourists have been a driving force in the U.S. economy in the years since the pandemic. But many potential visitors are rethinking their vacation plans amid rising geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainty, according to Bloomberg.
Tourists take photos in front of the New York Stock Exchange headquarters, USA
PHOTO: AP
International visitors spent a record $254 billion in the U.S. last year. Looking ahead to 2025, the outlook is positive: ITA projected in early March that the U.S. will welcome 77 million visitors this year, just shy of the 2019 record, before hitting a new high in 2026.
Those estimates, however, came just before stories of detentions at US airports that left travelers from countries like France and Germany stranded began making headlines. Major public institutions in Canada are advising employees not to travel to the US.
Nearly $20 billion in retail spending from international tourists in the U.S. could be at risk, Bloomberg Intelligence analysis shows.
Early signs of a sharp decline are already emerging. Airfares, hotel rates and car rental costs fell in March, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly report on consumer prices released April 10. Economists at Goldman Sachs and HSBC Holdings Plc said lower demand, including from foreign tourists, may have played a role.
Omair Sharif, president of Inflation Insights, noted that the drop in hotel room rates was driven by a nearly 11% drop in the northeastern U.S. in particular, likely due to fewer Canadians traveling there.
Travel to the United States is about to enter its peak summer season. However, Canadian flight bookings to the United States were down 70% in September compared to the same period last year, according to OAG Aviation Worldwide. Meanwhile, summer U.S. bookings for European travelers at Accor SA hotels were down 25%, which CEO Sébastien Bazin said could be due to border detentions creating “bad publicity” and diverting travelers to other destinations.
US tourism could lose tens of billions of dollars in the current context
PHOTO: BLOOMBERG
Despite the deteriorating outlook, Oregon’s tourism board — known as Travel Oregon — is continuing to work to attract foreign visitors, said CEO Todd Davidson. His team just returned from a trip to showcase the state at an adventure tourism conference in Vancouver, and in the coming weeks, they’ll host sales and marketing partners from places like the UK, India and Brazil.
At the same time, they are also considering whether they need to shift their strategy more towards domestic tourists...
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