Pig supply will increase again in the coming time. However, due to the complicated epidemic, pig prices may remain high and only decrease again in 2025.
Low demand keeps live pig price from exceeding 70,000 VND/kg
Contrary to the continuous increase in May, entering June 2024, pig price Domestic prices decreased slightly due to low demand, down to below 70,000 VND/kg.
Specifically, on June 28, 2024, pig price In the North, the price fluctuated between 67,000 - 69,000 VND/kg, down 1,000 - 2,000 VND/kg compared to the end of last month. The price of live pigs in the Central and Central Highlands regions fluctuated between 63,000 - 67,000 VND/kg, down 2,000 - 4,000 VND/kg. The price of live pigs in the South fluctuated between 66,000 - 68,000 VND/kg, down 1,000 - 2,000 VND/kg compared to the end of May 2024.
Entering July, the price of live pigs remained below 70,000 VND/kg. Specifically, the price of live pigs in the North on July 10 was around 67,000 - 69,000 VND/kg; the price of live pigs in the Central and Central Highlands regions was around 62,000 - 68,000 VND/kg; in the South, the purchase price fluctuated between 63,000 - 66,000 VND/kg.
At businesses, the price of CP pigs in the North is at 68,000 VND/kg; the price of CP pigs in the North is at 67,000 VND/kg. Currently, the price of pork at traditional markets in Hanoi is commonly around 110,000 - 140,000 VND/kg.
Although the price of live pigs in June did not exceed VND70,000/kg, the current price is VND14,000-16,000/kg higher than at the end of last year. According to many farmers, last year, the price of live pigs sold at the farm was only VND48,000-52,000/kg, causing farmers to lose VND5,000/kg. For each pig sold, farmers suffered a loss of VND5-10 million.
Losses have made many farmers uninterested in restocking their herds. Mr. Nguyen Tri Cong - Chairman of the Dong Nai Livestock Association - said that a preliminary survey of small-scale livestock households and large enterprises showed that they had reduced their herds by 30-40%, in some places by up to 70%.
Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development According to the survey results of livestock trends on April 1, 2024 of nearly 26,300 pig farming households nationwide, 3.07% of households plan to expand production, 88.10% of households plan to stabilize production in the coming time, 5.80% of households will reduce production, and 3.03% of households will no longer raise pigs.
While the small-scale livestock farming model is increasingly shrinking, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, the pig herd tends to increase strongly again due to the strong shift of household farming to semi-industrial farming, linking with businesses; farm farming in a chain combining bio-safety, disease safety and application of advanced technology.
It is estimated that the total number of pigs in the country by the end of June 2024 will reach 25,549.2 thousand, an increase of about 2.9% over the same period in 2023. The output of live pigs for slaughter in the first 6 months of the year is estimated at 2,535.8 thousand tons, an increase of 5.1% over the same period in 2023 (the second quarter is estimated at 1,241.9 thousand tons, an increase of 5.6%).
Pig prices are forecast to remain high.
Although in June, the price of live pigs did not increase as expected by farmers, but in the general picture of the first 6 months of the year, the price of live pigs tended to increase. However, currently, the African swine fever epidemic is complicated in many localities, making the livestock situation unstable, still facing many difficulties, especially for households.
The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development forecasts that pork supply will increase again in the coming time. However, due to the complicated epidemic situation, pork prices may remain high and only decrease again in 2025.
According to experts, pig prices may remain at current levels until the end of 2024 as small-scale farmers have just begun to restock after the African swine fever 2023 and at least until December there will be new supply on the market.
Meanwhile, retailers also believe that in a few months, when students return to school, demand will increase and prices will continue to rise.
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