Will the price of live pigs surpass the 20-year historical peak?

Pig prices have increased 36% compared to the beginning of the year.

In May 2024, the price of live pigs recorded a continuous increase in most localities across the country. Recorded on the last day of May (May 31, 2024), the price of live pigs was commonly at 67,000 - 70,000 VND/kg, an increase of 3,000 - 7,000 VND/kg compared to the end of last month. At the current level, the price of live pigs has increased by 36% compared to the beginning of the year. This is also the highest price since August 2022. The question is, is this increase in live pig prices contrary to the general trend of the market every year?

The average price of live pigs in localities across the country is currently at 68,100 VND/kg.

Speaking to reporters of the Industry and Trade Newspaper, Mr. Nguyen Van Trong - former Director of the Department of Livestock (Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development) - informed that, normally, summer is the low season for pork consumption. Therefore, pork prices during this period tend to decrease, then increase in the last months of the year and before Tet. However, this year is different. Since the beginning of the year, pork prices have continuously increased over the months and gradually approached the mark of 70,000 VND/kg.

The reason for the increase in live pig prices is the shortage of supply due to African swine fever, many households have sold their pigs to “run away from the epidemic”. On the other hand, the price of live pigs has remained low for a long time, making not only small-scale farmers but also large farms not dare to re-herd.

Sharing the same opinion on this issue, Mr. Nguyen Tri Cong - Chairman of Dong Nai Livestock Association - informed that in Dong Nai alone, the pig herd in this locality has decreased by 30%, the epidemic combined with people abandoning their pigsties due to losses last year has affected the productivity of the total pig herd in the province and caused a shortage of pigs.

This imbalance between supply and demand is expected to continue for the next few months, as African swine fever has devastated the sow herd and it will take at least 1.5 years to recover.

Pig price on May 31, 2024 in localities

The price of live pigs has increased, causing the price of hogs to increase. According to traders at traditional markets in Hanoi, the price of hogs is currently at 90,000 - 93,000 VND/kg. According to reporters from the Industry and Trade Newspaper, the price of pork at traditional markets has increased by 10,000 - 20,000 VND/kg.

Meat prices have increased while the weather has entered a hot period, causing consumption of this item to be very slow. Talking to a reporter from Cong Thuong Newspaper, Ms. Thu Hoa - a trader at Kim Lien market - said that before, she could earn 300,000 - 400,000 VND per day at the market, but now she only earns about 200,000 - 300,000 VND per day at the market, many days the market is quiet, even losing money. The price of live pigs has increased, causing the price of pork to increase, but demand has not increased, the market only sees sellers but no buyers, thinning the profits of traders.

Similarly, Ms. Nguyen Thi Nga - a trader at Hoang Mai market - said: "Meat prices are increasing every day but there are few customers. One day I bought one pig and had to work hard all day to sell it. The hot weather makes pork unsold, but if I don't go to the market and buy it to sell, I don't know what to do."

What do experts and businesses think about the price of live pigs?

According to the General Statistics Office, pork prices in May increased by 1.94% compared to the previous month due to a shortage of supply after the African swine fever outbreak in late 2023. As of May 24, 2024, the price of live pigs ranged from 64,000 - 68,000 VND/kg, an increase of 3,000 - 5,000 VND/kg compared to the previous month. Accordingly, the price of animal fat increased by 1.81%; roasted meat and ham increased by 0.56%; other processed meat increased by 0.17%; canned meat increased by 0.16%.

Speaking to reporters of the Industry and Trade Newspaper, Mr. Truong Sy Ba - Chairman of the Board of Directors of BAF Vietnam Agriculture Joint Stock Company - said that the current cost of raising live pigs is 55,000 VND/kg. With the high selling price at this time, farmers earn 12,000 - 15,000 VND/kg of live pigs, each sold live pig (100 kg) gives farmers a profit of 1.2 - 1.5 million VND.

Notably, in a report released on May 29, the General Statistics Office said pork prices increased due to a shortage of supply following the African swine fever outbreak in late 2023. As of May 22, African swine fever had not passed 21 days in 21 localities.

According to Mr. Nguyen Van Trong, according to the report of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, the current number of sows is still 2.9 million, with this number we do not worry about a shortage of supply. However, he is also concerned that this data has not been updated with the actual situation. In fact, it is very difficult to grasp the actual data of the total sow herd in the country because many breeding facilities are still hiding the epidemic, and the reports of localities are still too focused on achievements.

Pig prices have increased, farmers have cut losses and started to make profits. However, experts say that farmers still face many potential difficulties when they are not proactive in the source of animal feed materials and the output is unstable. Small-scale livestock farming still accounts for a high proportion and does not ensure biosafety. Forecasting the supply and demand market, evaluating and analyzing the livestock market still has many shortcomings...

In mid-May 2020, the price of live pigs surpassed a 20-year historical peak of 98,000 - 103,000 VND per kilogram. The reason for the sharp increase in pork prices is believed to be due to a serious shortage of supply in localities due to the previous outbreak of African swine fever. In that context, the authorities made a "wrong move" when calling on farmers to switch from raising pigs to raising poultry.

The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development said that in May 2024, the price of live pigs increased by 3-10% depending on the province compared to the previous month. The question is whether the increase in live pig prices will continue and will live pigs reach the historical peak of mid-May 2020?

Commenting on the trend of live pig prices in the coming time, many experts said that it will be difficult to increase too much when demand is still very weak. On the other hand, in early June, live pig prices are tending to decrease again due to the African swine fever epidemic, people are selling their herds, causing the supply to increase again.

“We expect that from now until the end of the year, pork prices will remain stable and move sideways in the range of 68,000 - 70,000 VND/kg,” Mr. Truong Sy Ba shared, and commented that the price of live pigs may increase again in the end of the third quarter or the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2024, but it will not be able to exceed 70,000 VND/kg. And with a price of around 60,000 - 70,000 VND/kg, in the context of high prices of animal feed ingredients and the current epidemic situation, livestock companies will only be able to cover costs and make a little profit, but there is no such thing as super-normal profit.

Source: https://congthuong.vn/gia-heo-hoi-co-vuot-dinh-lich-su-20-nam-323741.html