Domestic coffee prices maintain upward momentum, forecast for robusta price trend?

Robusta coffee prices rose significantly last week on concerns about crops in Vietnam after a weather forecaster from Dak Lak said on Friday that Vietnam’s main coffee-producing region, the Central Highlands, is expected to see more hot weather and less rainfall during the period from March 21 to 31.

Coffee price today 3/24/2025

World coffee prices ended last week, with robusta futures for delivery in May 2025 increasing by 118 USD/ton; arabica futures for delivery in May 2025 increasing by 12.95 cents/lb.

Domestic coffee prices continued to increase by an average of VND2,000 - 3,000/kg last week, while last week they increased by an average of VND1,000 - 2,000/kg. Domestic coffee prices currently fluctuate between VND132,900 - 134,000/kg.

Robusta coffee prices have increased continuously over the past two weeks, by more than 150 USD/ton. Currently, the market is dependent on supply from Vietnam. Vietnamese coffee is "alone" in the world market because Brazil has also run out of goods. Therefore, coffee prices remain high. Information about drought in Dak Lak has raised concerns about the impact on the productivity of the next crop in Vietnam, which has also pushed robusta prices up again.

However, some industry experts predict that there could be a big change after May, when Brazil enters its new harvest. Brazil's Robusta harvest will start around April, with an estimated harvest of 24 to 26 million bags, while the Arabica harvest usually starts later, around mid-year. On both exchanges, the number of short-term contracts decreased, inventories increased, and the harvests in Brazil and Indonesia are approaching, which are factors that will drag down the market in the near future.

During the week, after a two-day policy meeting, the Fed announced that it would keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25 - 4.5% on March 19. This move shows that the Fed wants to wait for further impacts from US President Donald Trump's economic policies. The USD exchange rate this week also partly supported coffee prices.

Domestic coffee prices at the end of last week (March 22) increased by 400 - 500 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. (Source: Coffeeam)

According to World & Vietnam , at the end of the last trading session (March 21), the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London exchange for delivery in May 2025 increased by 18 USD, trading at 5,515 USD/ton. The delivery in July 2025 increased by 22 USD, trading at 5,504 USD/ton. Trading volume was low.

Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange decreased slightly, with the May 2025 delivery period down 1.9 cents, trading at 390.15 cents/lb. The July 2025 delivery period decreased 0.05 cents, trading at 385.30 cents/lb. Trading volume was high on average.

Domestic coffee prices at the end of last week (March 22) increased by 400 - 500 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. Unit: VND/kg

Average price	Medium
USD/VND exchange rate	25,370	+ 20
DAK LAK	133,900	+ 400
LAM DONG	132,900	+ 400
GIA LAI	133,900	+ 400
DAK NONG	134,000	+ 500

(Source: giacaphe.com)

Extreme weather conditions have been a major factor in driving coffee shortages in recent years. In particular, market speculation due to weather events in major coffee-producing countries such as Brazil, Vietnam and Indonesia has contributed to the continued volatility of coffee prices.

However, according to current forecasts, robusta coffee prices may decline in 2025.

Specifically, a Reuters survey shows that robusta coffee prices are expected to end 2025 at $4,200/ton, down 28% from the closing price on February 12, 2025. The main reason comes from the forecast of increased robusta coffee output in major producing countries such as Brazil and Vietnam, leading to more abundant supply.

However, in the short term, coffee prices may remain high due to stable demand and reduced supply. Coffee prices in key regions of the Central Highlands such as Dak Lak, Lam Dong, Gia Lai, and Dak Nong are currently at an average of around VND133,900/kg, up slightly from the previous day. In addition, weather factors, especially the El Niño phenomenon, also affect coffee production, contributing to short-term price increases.

Overall, robusta coffee prices may decline in 2025 due to increased supply, but in the short term, prices may remain high due to factors such as stable demand, reduced supply, and weather effects.

Source: https://baoquocte.vn/gia-ca-phe-hom-nay-2432025-gia-ca-phe-trong-nuoc-giu-vung-da-tang-du-bao-xu-huong-gia-robusta-308644.html