Coffee prices experienced a volatile trading week.

At the close of trading, Arabica coffee prices increased by more than 3% to 8,474 USD/ton, while Robusta coffee prices edged up 0.4% to 5,353 USD/ton.

The Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV) said that the world raw material market continued to experience a volatile trading week. In the context of the USD falling to near its lowest level in 4 months, the constant changes in tariff policies caused concerns about US economic growth to increase, pushing up the price of precious metals. Meanwhile, the coffee market also experienced many sessions of increase and then decline. At the end of the trading week, the MXV-Index increased by 0.65% compared to the beginning of the previous week, closing at 2,279 points.

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MXV-Index

Precious metals market attracts cash flow

Last week saw a rise in most metals, except iron ore. Unpredictable trade policies, expectations of an early interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (FED) and a positive demand outlook in the market have boosted metal prices.

Closing the week, silver prices increased sharply by 4.26% to $32.55/ounce, 10% higher than the price at the beginning of 2025. Besides, platinum prices also recorded a weekly increase of 3.05% to $966.5/ounce.

Metal price list

Precious metals prices rose as the US officially imposed new import tariffs on major economic partners such as China, Canada and Mexico, raising concerns about the negative impact on global trade. In addition, less optimistic economic signals from the US reinforced expectations that the Fed would soon ease monetary policy, weakening the USD and increasing the appeal of non-interest-bearing assets such as gold and silver.

The latest US economic report showed that the manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) in February fell short of expectations, signaling a slowdown in US industry. At the same time, the unemployment rate rose to 4.1%, higher than the forecast of 4%, while the number of new jobs in the non-farm sector reached only 151,000, lower than the forecast of 159,000.

In the base metals market, copper prices continued to rise strongly, increasing by 3.56% to $10,383/ton. The main driver came from a positive demand outlook as the market forecasts a deficit of 160,000 tons next year.

According to data from the General Administration of Customs of China, copper concentrate imports in the first two months of 2025 reached 4.71 million tons, up 1.3% year-on-year. In addition, concerns about supply disruptions, especially as the US is considering imposing tariffs on this item, also contributed to supporting copper prices.

Iron ore, on the other hand, bucked the trend, falling 1.94% to $100.45 a tonne, hitting a three-week low. The downward pressure comes from China’s production cuts to restructure its steel industry. Data shows that China’s iron ore imports in the first two months of the year were just 191.36 million tonnes, down 8.4% year-on-year, reflecting weaker demand.

Coffee experiences volatile trading week

According to MXV, the coffee market has just experienced a week with three sessions of increase and two sessions of decrease. At the close, Arabica coffee prices increased by more than 3% to 8,474 USD/ton, Robusta coffee prices inched up 0.4% to 5,353 USD/ton.

Industrial raw material price list

Coffee prices rose at the end of the first trading session of the week due to dry weather in Brazil - the world's largest producer of Arabica coffee. According to weekly statistics from Somar Meteorologia, as of February 22, Minas Gerais state - Brazil's main Arabica growing region - received only 11.4 mm of rain, equivalent to 24% of the historical average. This raised concerns about the possibility of a decrease in coffee crop productivity. Due to the extended Carnival holiday in Brazil, Somar Meteorologia did not report rainfall at the beginning of last week.

Low coffee inventories also supported prices. As of February 18, ICE-monitored Arabica inventories fell to a 9.5-month low of 758,514 bags, although they recovered slightly to 809,128 bags on February 29. For Robusta, ICE-monitored inventories fell to a two-month low of 4,247 lots on March 1.

Additionally, as of February 11, producers had sold 88% of their 2024-25 crop, up from 79% at the same time last year and the five-year average of 82%, according to a report from Safras & Mercado. However, the pace of sales for the 2025-26 crop has slowed significantly to just 13%, below the four-year average of 22%, indicating limited new supply and farmers’ reluctance to sell at current prices.

However, the rally was short-lived as the market began to correct over the weekend on forecasts of increased rainfall in Brazil. After a prolonged dry spell, the weather agency said that coffee growing regions in Brazil are expected to receive heavy rains this week, easing drought concerns and improving growing conditions for coffee.

Robusta coffee prices came under further pressure as the General Statistics Office of Vietnam reported that coffee exports in February reached 169,000 tons, up 6.6% year-on-year. In addition, weather forecasts showing daily rains in the largest coffee growing region - the Central Highlands - also significantly impacted market sentiment.

Prices of some other goods