Director of the General Statistics Office proposes solutions to 'unlock' growth

GDP growth in the first quarter of 2025 reached 6.93%, which is considered a fairly positive result, however, achieving the growth target of 8% or more in 2025 is still a challenge. To clarify this issue, the reporter had an interview with Ms. Nguyen Thi Huong - Director of the General Statistics Office (Ministry of Finance).

GDP growth in the first quarter: Vietnam leads the region

- Vietnam's economy has entered the first quarter of 2025 with many positive points, GDP growth reached 6.93% compared to the same period in 2024. How do you evaluate this result?

Ms. Nguyen Thi Huong: The 6.93% GDP growth rate that Vietnam achieved in the first quarter of 2025 is, in my opinion, one of the quite positive results in the region and in the world. This result is also not beyond the predictions of domestic and international economic organizations.

Ms. Nguyen Thi Huong - Director of the General Statistics Office. Photo: NNH

GDP in the first quarter of 2025 increased by 6.93%, the highest increase in the first quarter compared to the same period in the 2020-2025 period. Of which, region I increased by 3.74%, contributing 0.43 percentage points to the total added value growth of the whole economy; region II increased by 7.42%, contributing 2.87 percentage points; region III increased by 7.70%, contributing 3.83 percentage points.

Specifically, in sector I: Agricultural, forestry and fishery production activities achieved quite positive results with an increase of 3.74%, of which agricultural production increased by 3.53% due to a fairly good increase in perennial crops and stable livestock; forestry production increased by 6.67% due to an increase in newly planted forest area and exploited timber; exploitation and aquaculture increased by 3.98% due to a good aquaculture.

This result is thanks to the state's support policies for farmers such as: preferential loans with low interest rates; promoting the application of science and technology, innovation to improve productivity and product quality; promoting trade promotion, expanding the consumption market for agricultural, forestry and fishery products from traditional markets of China, the United States, Japan and the EU to new markets such as Africa, Hala...

Sector II: Industry and construction in the first quarter achieved a good growth rate (7.42%), industrial added value increased by 7.32%, of which manufacturing and processing industry increased by 9.28%; electricity production and distribution increased by 4.60%; water supply; waste and wastewater management and treatment increased by 8.81% and mining decreased by 5.76%. The construction industry has had positive changes with the added value growth rate in the first quarter of 2025 reaching 7.99%.

Manufacturing and processing industry activities have accelerated strongly since February (IIP increased by 19.7% in February, 10.2% in March, and 9.5% in the first 3 months); many localities recorded strong recovery and growth in this industry, especially in fields such as electronics, pharmaceuticals, rubber, plastics, mechanics and food; many processing industries with strong export advantages increased sharply such as: Textiles, footwear; electronics, computers and components; machinery and equipment.

Sector III: In the first quarter of 2025, it grew by 7.70%, making the largest contribution to the growth of the entire economy. Sector III's growth was supported by increased domestic demand and international visitors during the Lunar New Year, while spring festivals and tourism stimulus programs of localities in the first quarter also made tourism activities vibrant.

International visitors to our country increased sharply (29.6%) thanks to the effective implementation of favorable visa policies and tourism stimulus programs, contributing positively to the growth of the trade and service sectors.

Public investment is the growth driver in 2025. Illustrative photo

Overcoming storms, Vietnam's economy still has room to break out

- Besides the positive points, what are the challenges and opportunities that Vietnam's economic growth will have to face in the coming time, madam?

Ms. Nguyen Thi Huong: The world economy in 2025 is forecasted to still face many risks and challenges such as: Geopolitical conflicts and tensions; global supply chains are still weak due to geopolitical instability and supply shortages; inflation is cooling down but still at a high level; risks of rising interest rates and exchange rate fluctuations. In particular, the new US tax policy will impact the world economic situation in general and Vietnam in particular.

Besides challenges, Vietnam's GDP growth in the last months of the year also faces opportunities for breakthroughs. First of all, the Government and the Prime Minister have focused on implementing solutions for socio-economic development, promoting economic growth, maintaining macroeconomic stability, controlling inflation, ensuring major balances; it is forecasted that the next quarters will have good growth prospects.

From a production perspective, the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector is showing a clear growth trend thanks to export momentum, strong application of science and technology and opportunities from Free Trade Agreements (FTAs).

The industry is forecast to maintain a growth rate of 7-9%, with the main drivers being: Exports, public investment and technological transformation. The service sector also tends to grow well thanks to the recovery of tourism activities and import and export of goods and services.

In addition, the trend of shifting global supply chains is creating great opportunities for Vietnam to attract foreign investment in the industrial sector, especially in the processing, manufacturing and high-tech industries.

Digital economy, digital transformation and innovation are identified as new growth drivers, the foundation for increasing productivity and efficiency of the economy. Vietnam is also facing the opportunity to take advantage of new generation FTAs ​​to expand export markets for Vietnam's key and advantageous products to European, Japanese, Hala markets... reducing dependence on the US; deeply participating and enhancing its position in the world supply chain.

Another growth driver from now until the end of the year is: Public investment is being strongly implemented. The government is determined to implement major programs and projects such as the North-South high-speed railway, nuclear power, and attract "eagles" in the technology sector.

- To achieve a growth rate of 8% or more in 2025, it is forecasted that Vietnam must achieve a growth rate of 8.3% in the remaining quarters. To achieve this growth rate, what solutions does Vietnam need to focus on, Madam?

Ms. Nguyen Thi Huong: With the GDP growth target of 8.0% or higher in 2025, in order to create a solid foundation to achieve double-digit growth in the 2026-2030 period, based on the estimated results of the first quarter of 2025, forecasts for the second quarter and the whole year, the General Statistics Office updates the GDP growth scenario for the quarters of 2025 to achieve the growth target of 8% as follows: The first quarter increases by 6.93%, the second quarter increases by 8.2%, the third and fourth quarters are 8.3% and 8.4%, respectively. Overall, growth in the last 9 months of the year must increase by over 8.3%.

Thus, the first quarter growth results, although quite positive, are still creating great pressure on the following quarters, while the world context still has many challenges and risks. The implementation of the 2025 growth target is increasingly difficult and challenging, especially when it is necessary to simultaneously deploy a large amount of work, ensuring the progress of arranging administrative units at all levels according to the direction of the Central Committee and the Politburo.

Although Vietnam's growth potential is clearly shown in factors including: Disbursement of public investment capital and attraction and disbursement of foreign investment capital; digital transformation and technological innovation will open up opportunities for businesses to access and apply AI technology in production activities to reduce costs, improve labor productivity, and increase competitiveness; credit growth strives to reach the target of 16%; consumption is supported by policies to reduce value added tax and trade policies to stimulate domestic consumption; strengthening visa exemption policies for many countries and tourism promotion strategies will help Vietnam develop and attract tourists, especially in the upcoming tourist season...

However, to support the growth target of 8% or more in 2025, in my opinion, Vietnam still needs to focus on restructuring the economy, reviewing internal resources, and from there focusing on building products with Vietnamese brands, products that Vietnam can master from input materials to science and technology as well as output markets. This is not only a short-term but also a long-term strategy, to gradually bring Vietnamese branded products to the world market.

Thank you!

According to the General Statistics Office - Ministry of Finance, in the first quarter of 2025, Vietnam has 43 localities with higher growth rates than the national growth rate and 20 localities with lower growth rates. Some localities with high growth rates in the first quarter of 2025 include: Bac Giang increased by 13.82%; Hoa Binh increased by 12.76%; Nam Dinh increased by 11.86%; Da Nang increased by 11.36%; Hai Phong increased by 11.07%; Quang Ninh increased by 10.91%; Bac Ninh increased by 9.05%; Ho Chi Minh City increased by 7.51%; Hanoi increased by 7.35%...

Nguyen Hoa (performed)

Source: https://congthuong.vn/cuc-truong-cuc-thong-ke-neu-giai-phap-mo-khoa-tang-truong-382474.html