El Nino is here

On June 8, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced that the El Nino phenomenon had begun to take place on Earth. El Nino is a climate phenomenon that affects storms in the Pacific Ocean, increasing rainfall and the risk of flooding in the Americas and other regions. Over the past three years, the global climate has been affected by the La Nina phenomenon, causing global temperatures to drop below average.

Scientists say this year’s weather conditions are particularly worrying. According to Reuters, the last time El Nino peaked, in 2016, it was the hottest period ever recorded on Earth.

Meteorologists say El Nino, combined with heat waves caused by climate change, could send the world into record-breaking heat.

Scientists say the El Nino phenomenon could cause Earth's temperature to rise to record levels in the near future. (Photo: Reuters)

Experts are also concerned about what is happening in the seas. The El Nino phenomenon will cause sea temperatures in the Eastern Pacific to rise above normal levels. Already in May, before the El Nino phenomenon began, sea surface temperatures were 0.1 degrees Celsius higher than the record high.

“We are in an unprecedented situation,” said Michelle L’Heureux, a meteorologist with NOOA’s Weather Prediction Center.

According to a study published in the journal Science in May, the impact of El Nino could cost the world economy $3 trillion by disrupting food production, industry and spreading disease.

Countries vulnerable to climate change are starting to take notice of El Nino. Peru has earmarked $1.06 billion to deal with the impacts of El Nino and climate change, while the Philippines, which is regularly hit by tropical storms, has created a task force to deal with the impact of extreme weather events.

What factors create El Nino?

El Nino is a natural climate pattern created by warm water in the eastern Pacific Ocean.

The phenomenon is formed when the trade winds blowing from east to west along the equator in the Pacific Ocean slow down or reverse due to changes in atmospheric pressure. However, scientists have not been able to conclude what triggers this process.

Because the trade winds affect the temperature of the water at sea surface - which is warmed by the Sun - the weakening of these winds causes warm ocean water in the western Pacific to move into cooler basins in the eastern and central Pacific.

During the 2015-2016 El Niño cycle, when the phenomenon was the strongest on record, flounder populations off the coast of Peru plummeted as warm water moved in from the western Pacific. The phenomenon also destroyed a third of Australia’s Great Barrier Reef.

Warm water accumulating in the eastern Pacific also affects the atmosphere through evaporation, creating storms.

"When El Nino shifts the warm water, hurricanes move with it," said NOAA meteorologist Tom DiLiberto.

How El Nino affects global climate

The change in storm activity affects the fast-moving air stream - called the subtropical jet stream. The jet stream, which causes weather changes around the globe, is pushed south and flattened.

“If you change the path of the storms, you change the weather conditions,” DiLiberto said.

Under the influence of El Nino, the southern United States will experience colder and wetter weather conditions. While the western United States and Canada will become drier and hotter.

The number of hurricanes in the United States will decrease due to changes in the Atlantic wind pattern. However, storms in the Pacific will increase and become more severe, directly affecting the region's vulnerable islands.

India was among the places that suffered severe droughts during the last El Nino cycle in 2015. (Photo: Reuters)

Some parts of Central and South America will see increased rainfall, while Australia will suffer severe heatwaves, drought and bushfires.

El Nino will help the Horn of Africa region escape drought after 5 years of being affected by the La Nina phenomenon.

Historically, both El Nino and La Nina have occurred on average every two to seven years. El Nino lasts nine to 12 months. La Nina, which occurs when water in the eastern Pacific Ocean cools, typically lasts one to three years.

Is El Nino affected by climate change?

How climate change impacts El Nino is “a very important topic of study,” DiLiberto said. While climate change may double the impact of El Nino — adding heat to an existing layer and intensifying the rainy season — it’s not yet clear whether it has a direct impact on the weather phenomenon.

Scientists cannot be certain that climate change will upset the balance between El Nino and La Nina, causing one of them to occur more frequently. Scientists say that if ocean temperatures rise across the board, the cycle is unlikely to change, as the mechanisms underlying both events remain the same.

However, if sea temperatures rise unevenly, El Nino could become more severe.

(Source: Zing News)

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