US businesses increasingly believe in a 'soft landing' for the world's largest economy

CEOs are feeling more confident about the US economy, but remain cautious about the risks ahead.

US businesses are more optimistic about the direction of the economy. (Source: Shutterstock)

A survey released by The Conference Board on February 8 showed that American business leaders are feeling more optimistic about the direction of the world's largest economy, even as their worries about the upcoming presidential election are increasing.

According to a survey, a measure of CEO confidence has shown that for the first time in two years, optimism has outweighed pessimism.

Specifically, 36% of CEOs surveyed expect US economic conditions to improve in the short term, up significantly from the 19% measured in the fourth quarter of 2023. This number reflects businesses' growing confidence in a "soft landing" for the US economy - something that seemed very unlikely a year ago.

Another indicator in the survey suggests that recession fears are easing among businesses. Only 27% of CEOs believe that U.S. economic conditions will worsen in the next six months, down from 47% who said so in the fourth-quarter 2023 survey.

However, business leaders also expressed growing concerns about how the volatile domestic political situation, with the 2024 US presidential election taking place in November, could impact their businesses.

According to The Conference Board, 51% of CEOs surveyed shared this view. It was the top risk cited by CEOs. Some economists have warned that a contested election would cause unrest, harm markets and the economy, and heighten concerns about social unrest.

“CEOs are feeling more confident about the health of the economy, but remain cautious about the risks ahead,” said Roger Ferguson, vice president of The Conference Board’s business council.

American business leaders have upgraded their assessment of the current state of the economy. About 32% of CEOs surveyed said the U.S. economy is better than it was six months ago, up from just 18% who said so at the end of last year.

Only 22% of CEOs said economic conditions had worsened, down from 32% previously.

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