(Dan Tri) - Experts warn of a lost decade for the world economy and Vietnam's economy. New growth drivers suggested by experts include green growth, digital economy...
Warning of a lost decade
Presenting a speech at the plenary session of the 2023 Socio-Economic Forum held on the afternoon of September 19, Dr. Can Van Luc - Director of BIDV Training and Research Institute - said that Vietnam's economy has maintained its growth momentum and is a bright spot "in the gray picture" of the global economy (according to the IMF). The country's credit rating and international position continue to improve.
Major balances are ensured, especially indicators of public debt, foreign debt, and budget deficit are all below and quite far from the limit allowed by the National Assembly; bad debt is controlled, exchange rates are quite stable, and inflation is controlled at an average of 3 years (2021-2023) of about 2.8% (below the target threshold of 4%).
However, the current economic context of the world and Vietnam is slowing down. The world economy, after a strong recovery with a growth rate of 6% in 2021, will decrease to 3% in 2022 and is forecast to grow at around 2.1-2.4% this year, before increasing again to 2.4-2.7% in 2024.
Mr. Can Van Luc presented his paper (Photo: Quochoi.vn).
Vietnam's socio-economy from 2020 to present has also faced a number of difficulties, challenges and limitations.
The challenges include: Risks and challenges from the international context still exist and may last; international trade activities are still difficult and are still decreasing, although the decrease has slowed down; business activities still face many difficulties but have gradually improved; credit growth is low, bad debt is high due to the weak capital absorption capacity of businesses and the economy; State budget revenue after 2 years of good growth has begun to decline from the beginning of 2023, mainly due to the decrease in foreign trade, policies on deferral and reduction of taxes and fees are applied more in the last 6 months of the year.
Economic growth is forecast to reach 5-5.5% this year, 6% next year and 6.5% in 2025. The driving force for Vietnam's economic growth from both supply and demand is growing slowly. The construction and industrial sectors have never grown below 2%.
"If we do nothing, this will be a lost decade. Every 10 years, the growth rate slows down by 1 percentage point," Mr. Luc raised the issue.
Commenting similarly to Mr. Luc, Dr. Vu Tien Loc, National Assembly Delegate, Chairman of the Vietnam International Arbitration Center, said that the three growth drivers of the economy over the past 30 years have been likened to a three-horse carriage including export, investment, and consumption and are in need of breakthrough development.
Vu Tien Loc predicts that the recovery of the Vietnamese and world economies will be U-shaped with a very long bottom, known as the lost decade.
Looking for new growth drivers
In the current context, restoring existing growth drivers and finding new ones is both an urgent and strategic issue for Vietnam.
According to Mr. Can Van Luc, to regain rapid and sustainable growth momentum, the National Assembly and the Government need to implement many policies and solutions to both ensure macroeconomic stability, enhance resilience, consolidate traditional growth drivers, and create enough space to effectively exploit new growth models and drivers, both in the short and long term.
The research team proposed two main groups of solutions: Group of solutions to strengthen existing growth drivers; Group of solutions to promote and exploit new growth drivers. Mr. Luc also mentioned new drivers coming from 7 new areas including digital economy, green growth,...
As for Dr. Vu Tien Loc, he said that Vietnam has the advantage of a medium-sized economy. He mentioned the issue of enhancing endogenous capacity in symbiosis with the global economy. He recommended that there should be a policy to promote the connection of FDI enterprises with Vietnam, ensuring deep roots in the economy, and mutually beneficial symbiosis with Vietnamese enterprises.
In addition, it is necessary to strengthen the capacity of public-private partnerships in industrial development projects, continue to improve the legal framework on public-private partnerships, and complete the Law on Industrial Development to submit to the National Assembly in the coming time; there should be a national program on improving labor productivity and pay more attention to this issue.
Regarding digital transformation, green transformation, and energy transformation, Dr. Vu Tien Loc said that these are projects with great potential. Investing in this field will pave the way for new investment flows into Vietnam, which will hit many targets with one arrow, activating a new wave of investment and growth in Vietnam in the direction of ensuring better quality.
Regarding the private sector, he said institutional reform in the private economic sector is very important. Thereby, it will stimulate resources for Vietnam's economic development in the coming time.
Dantri.com.vn
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