The race to find a potential candidate for the seat of Speaker of the US House of Representatives

After Mr. McCarthy lost his position, the Republicans in the US House of Representatives faced a headache of who could take on this difficult position.

Kevin McCarthy was removed from his position as Speaker of the House of Representatives in a vote on October 3, when eight far-right Republicans chose to side with Democrats against him. Congressman Patrick McHenry was appointed interim House leader while Republicans searched for a replacement.

Republican pollster Whit Ayres said it would be a difficult process, with no candidate standing out enough to end the party's infighting or provide a way out of upcoming budget negotiations.

Congressman Steve Scalise (left) and Mr. McCarthy at a press conference on Capitol Hill in December 2022. Photo: Reuters

"As long as the far-right Republicans continue to make it difficult for anyone who sits in that seat, it's going to be a tough position. I don't think anyone wants to take that position in the current climate," Ayres said.

Steve Scalise , the majority leader and the second-most powerful Republican in the House, is theoretically the frontrunner to replace Mr. McCarthy. With a more conservative stance than McCarthy, Mr. Scalise could win support from the far-right Freedom Caucus and other conservatives who are unhappy with the former speaker.

However, Scalise announced in September that he was undergoing treatment for multiple myeloma, a condition that has improved significantly, but could still make it difficult for him to perform his duties.

Matt Gaetz, the far-right congressman who led the effort to oust McCarthy, publicly endorsed Scalise to become the new House leader. He said Scalise should not be denied because of health issues.

But some Republicans may not see Mr Scalise as their top choice. Other hard-line conservatives like Rep. Andy Biggs want Tom Emmer , the deputy majority leader and the third-most powerful Republican in the House, to replace Mr McCarthy.

Emmer, a Minnesota Republican, has twice served as chairman of Republican House campaigns. He has strong relationships with dozens of Republicans he has helped elect. And as deputy majority leader, he has a knack for bridging the party’s factions, making him popular on all sides.

"He's a voice, he's got good relationships. And he doesn't lie to us," Gaetz once said of Emmer.

However, Emmer could also face criticism as Republicans fared poorly in last year's midterm elections, which left them with just nine seats ahead of Democrats and a slim majority in the House.

Emmer also said he has no intention of taking on the position of House Speaker, according to Politico . "I fully support House Speaker McCarthy. I'm not interested in infighting," he said.

Congressman Tom Emmer at a press conference in Washington on April 26. Photo: Reuters

Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik of New York is also a potential candidate for Speaker of the House. Stefanik is the fourth-ranking Republican in the House and emerged as a brand of the MAGA (Make America Great Again) movement during former President Donald Trump's presidency.

Unlike McCarthy, Scalise or Emmer, who declined to name the Republican presidential candidate they supported, Stefanik has been a vocal supporter of Mr Trump in the 2024 race.

That could help her win support from the party’s right wing, but it’s unlikely she’ll win any Democratic votes to become speaker. If she runs, she’ll need nearly all Republicans in the House to back her to become the new speaker.

Additionally, Republican Congressman Jim Jordan of Ohio could also be a name mentioned in the House speaker election. Jordan is the former head of the far-right Freedom Caucus and currently chairs the powerful House Judiciary Committee.

He led the effort to defend former President Trump during the first impeachment proceedings. Jordan may be one of the few candidates who can actually satisfy the party’s far right. But other moderate Republicans are likely to be wary of him.

Other names that could be considered as House Speaker candidates include House Rules Committee Chairman Tom Cole, Louisiana Congressman Garret Graves, and House Finance Committee Chairman and Speaker pro tempore Patrick McHenry.

The most unlikely candidate is former President Donald Trump . Two Republican congressmen, Troy Nehls and Greg Steube, have announced that they will nominate him for speaker of the House at the scheduled session on October 10.

The US Constitution theoretically allows Mr. Trump to replace McCarthy, because there is no provision that the Speaker of the House must be a sitting member of the House.

However, on October 4, Mr. Trump expressed that he was not interested in becoming Speaker of the House and was "fully focused" on the 2024 presidential election. History also shows that 55 people who have held the position of Speaker of the House in the past 234 years in the US were all congressmen.

To become Speaker of the House, Mr. Trump will likely have to win enough Republican votes in the House, while some Republicans have expressed dissatisfaction with him and want the party to move away from "Trumpism". These lawmakers believe that Trump's negative influence is the reason why the Republican Party failed to create a "red wave" in the 2022 midterm elections and did not win an overwhelming majority in the House as expected.

Former US President Donald Trump in New York on October 3. Photo: Reuters

Nicole Narea, an analyst at Vox , predicts the process of finding a new House leader will take time, especially since it's unclear who can win over moderate Republicans as well as far-right members of the party.

The new House Speaker will also immediately face headaches to deal with, such as fierce Republican disputes and negotiations over a long-term government budget bill, after the 45-day agreement expires, according to Narea.

Thanh Tam (According to Vox, Fortune, Newsweek, Hindustan Times )

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