Resistance from Hungary is a big challenge in the European Union's (EU) efforts to admit Ukraine.
 |
| Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban declared that Budapest would not participate “in this terrible decision.” (Source: AP) |
On December 14, to the surprise of the world, the EU gave the green light to negotiations to admit Ukraine and Moldova. According to Le Figaro (France), this is a “historic decision, moving closer to expanding a bloc that is facing increasing pressure from Russia”.
On social network X, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky welcomed this decision. President of the European Council Charles Michel said, "This is a sign of hope for Ukraine and the continent." Secretary General of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Jens Stoltenberg commented: "This is not charity, but an investment in security."
However, that effort was just a stepping stone to overcome the Hungarian barrier.
Historical coffee cup
In fact, the decision was only agreed upon by 26 EU member states. The meeting in Brussels was not attended by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. He stated in his report that he did not vote. However, the EU will still need the support of Hungarian leaders in March or June 2024 on the conditions that Ukraine must comply with to join the bloc. Currently, 3/7 conditions have not been met. Les Echos (France) commented that the EU's decision is purely political and "enlarging the bloc will be a major challenge for EU governance".
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz reportedly asked his Hungarian counterpart to go out for coffee. “No one heard what they said,” an EU official said. “But it doesn’t seem like Scholz gave any orders to Orban. The Hungarian prime minister left voluntarily and went to his delegation room.”
With Mr Orban literally out, the remaining 26 leaders continued their discussions and the vote went off without a hitch. It was reported that the idea of Mr Orban leaving the room to save Ukraine’s bid for EU membership had been planned in advance. French President Emmanuel Macron acknowledged that the idea was a collective effort. Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas called it “an interesting event for the history books” and one that she would include in her future memoirs, if she ever does.
Meanwhile, Mr Orban posted a video on social media, describing this as “absolutely nonsense, absurd and wrong”. Speaking about the decision to abstain, the Hungarian Prime Minister said he had “spent eight hours trying to convince them not to do this”. According to him, other EU leaders wanted to admit Ukraine “recklessly”, so he agreed with them that he would ignore the danger and leave them to their own devices.
In addition to Ukraine, the EU has given the green light to promote the candidacy of Georgia and Bosnia - Herzegovina. However, these countries are unlikely to join in the near future, especially when Mr. Viktor Orban will hold the rotating presidency of the EU from July 2024. Notably, Le Monde said that although Hungary opposes Ukraine's accession to the EU, it supports the applications of the Balkan countries. Researcher Ivana Rankovic at the Center for Security Policy (USA) commented that since returning to power in 2010, "Mr. Viktor Orban wants to make Hungary a regional power. The Balkan countries can help Budapest do this."
Difficult will be more difficult
In reality, EU membership negotiations will involve a complex array of issues that require careful and technical considerations. It will take Ukraine years to be ready to join the bloc. And Prime Minister Viktor Orban knows he has plenty of other opportunities to stop the process.
If EU leaders thought the Hungarian prime minister might suddenly find himself in a difficult position, they were disappointed. Subsequent talks in Brussels hit a snag when Orban used his veto to block a much more specific and urgent decision to send a €50 billion ($55 billion) aid package to Kiev. It was not the first time the politician has used his veto to win concessions for Budapest, such as exemptions from Russian oil imports, although he has never blocked an EU deal.
“Hungary is respected in the European Council. We listen to Mr Orban, but that respect implies responsibility. I therefore hope that in the coming months… he will behave like a European and not ‘kidnap’ our political progress,” said French President Emmanuel Macron.
In response, Balazs Orban, a political adviser to the Hungarian Prime Minister, said that Budapest was not blackmailing the EU, but rather the opposite. He implied that the country would only start cooperating if the EU released 20 billion euros, which had been frozen due to EU concerns about human rights and corruption in the country. He stressed that Hungary wanted that money before the EU agreed to spend more on Ukraine.
Despite the behind-the-scenes drama, European leaders have insisted that they will tackle the issue of financial aid to Ukraine early next year. They believe they can persuade Prime Minister Viktor Orban to step in or find a way to pass aid without Budapest’s support. Asked how to persuade the politician to change his stance on Ukraine, European Council President Charles Michel said he was open to proposals. The EU has prepared for the worst, allowing all members except Hungary to provide bilateral aid to Ukraine outside the 2024 budget.
In the spirit of “Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst”, can the EU and Ukraine overcome Hungary?
Source
Comment (0)