Reporting at the regular Government meeting in September 2023 and the Government's online conference with localities (morning of September 30), Minister of Planning and Investment Nguyen Chi Dung updated the growth scenario for the fourth quarter and the whole year of 2023 based on the results of the first 9 months, forecasting the context and situation in the world and in the country in the coming time.
Accordingly, in scenario 1, economic growth for the whole year is about 5%, then the fourth quarter needs to increase by 7%.
Scenario 2, GDP for the whole year increases by 5.5%, and in the fourth quarter it must increase by 8.8%.
Scenario 3, economic growth for the whole year is about 6% and to achieve that, the fourth quarter needs to increase by 10.6%.
According to the leader of the Ministry of Planning and Investment, growth in the fourth quarter depends heavily on the recovery rate of industrial production, especially the processing and manufacturing industry; the increase in demand in Vietnam's major and key export markets, tourism activities, and domestic consumption at the end of the year and near the Lunar New Year 2024.
The Ministry believes that the scenarios are all very difficult and challenging, requiring the initiative, efforts, and high determination of all levels, sectors, and localities to implement solutions and policies to strongly promote growth.
In particular, effectively promote all resources, take full advantage of opportunities from both outside and inside to strive for the highest growth results in the fourth quarter, especially creating momentum for 2024 and the following years.
According to the economic growth forecast in the three scenarios proposed by the Ministry of Planning and Investment, all are lower than the target set by the National Assembly and the Government this year of 6.5%.
At the Vietnam Economic Forum held on September 19, experts also predicted that this year's GDP would hardly exceed 6%.
To promote growth, the Ministry of Planning and Investment has proposed many solutions. In particular, this agency proposed synchronous implementation from all levels, sectors and localities of issued solutions and policies to support and remove difficulties for production and business; especially policies on tax, fees, currency, trade and investment.
Along with that, focus on promoting the domestic market; support businesses to effectively exploit the domestic market, take advantage of opportunities to boost consumption of goods at the end of the year and Lunar New Year 2024. Support businesses to quickly and promptly meet new standards of export partner countries, promote exports of key product groups, take advantage of export opportunities from signed FTAs, accelerate signed negotiations...
Notably, the Ministry also recommends promoting new growth drivers of the economy, taking advantage of new opportunities from the comprehensive strategic partnership with the US to attract multinational corporations to invest, cooperate to form an ecosystem of chips, semiconductors, component manufacturing, promote innovation, train high-tech human resources, etc.
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