Both Ukraine and Russia face a harsh winter war (Photo: EPA).
The harsh winter battle
Al Jazeera quoted experts as saying that this winter could see a prolonged and bloody stalemate on the Ukrainian battlefield, with neither side backing down from attacks and counterattacks, but that could be a premise for negotiations next year.
“Winter only adds to the misery, with neither side likely to make a tactical or operational breakthrough,” said Seth Krummrich, vice president at security consultancy Global Guardian.
Ukraine launched a major counter-offensive in early June, and by some estimates has retaken half of the territory it lost to Russia since the start of the year.
However, Ukraine failed to achieve its strategic goal of cutting Russian forces in half, isolating Kherson, Zaporizhia and Crimea from Lugansk, Donetsk and Kharkov. Senior Ukrainian commanders said the counteroffensive would continue throughout the winter.
Last month, Russia attempted to respond with a new series of attacks in the east, targeting the cities of Kupiansk, Lyman, Avdiivka and Mariinka despite snow and ice.
“When the ground freezes, Russian forces will try to advance, but attacking in such conditions would be disastrous. “They will be stuck in a war of attrition,” said Konstantinos Grivas, a lecturer in weapons systems and geopolitics at the Hellenic Army Academy in Greece.
Neither side could find a technological or tactical advantage to make a breakthrough because defense prevailed, according to Mr. Grivas.
"Firepower and passive defenses such as minefields and trenches seem to have rendered the capabilities of mechanized and air forces useless. If anything serious happens, it will be a collapse due to exhaustion, like a boxing match where a fighter simply cannot take a blow, except for a knockout punch," he said.
Both sides have built strategies to win, but so far none have yielded the expected results.
Moscow had hoped for a swift collapse of the Ukrainian army when it launched its special military operation early last year. When that failed, Russia unleashed some 10,000 missiles on Ukrainian cities in an attempt to break their morale.
Last winter, Russia targeted large-scale power plants in Ukraine. This summer, Moscow targeted port infrastructure to block Ukrainian grain exports.
Ukraine’s Western allies have responded with air defense systems, spare parts and emergency generators to keep Ukraine’s power flowing. They have provided Ukraine with medium-range missiles combined with domestically produced drones to neutralize the Russian naval blockade in the Black Sea.
Ukraine has tried its own offensive strategy, using these long-range weapons to strike deep into Russia’s rear to disrupt the supply of weapons to the frontline, forcing Moscow to move its stockpiles out of range of Ukrainian fire.
Ukraine has also carried out drone strikes on Russian missile production facilities. Ukraine has recently asked the West for F-16 fighter jets. However, experts say these weapons are unlikely to break the deadlock.
“Even if Ukraine had F-16s, it would not be able to use them effectively because they require thousands of hours of pilot training before they can be put into service,” said Andreas Iliopoulos, a former deputy commander of the Greek army. He said the earliest F-16s could be used in combat in Ukraine would be 2025.
Negotiation opportunity
Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly stated his readiness to negotiate with Ukraine (Photo: AFP).
Russia's ability to maintain stockpiles and mobilize its large reserves of manpower has led some observers to suggest that time is on its side.
“Ukraine risks losing a prolonged war of attrition, because it would be an unbalanced war,” said John Mearsheimer, a professor of political science at the University of Chicago.
However, Russian forces were also inevitably exhausted in a protracted war.
While Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said he will not accept any negotiations until Russia withdraws all its troops, Russia has a different view.
"Russia has never refused to negotiate peace with Ukraine. Of course, we should think about how to prevent this tragedy," Russian President Vladimir Putin said at the G20 summit on November 21.
According to Krummrich, Putin once again wants to send a message that Russia wants to end the conflict. Grivas also believes that both sides now want to find a way out of the conflict, but who will propose negotiations first.
A peace deal is unlikely this winter as both sides signal continued fighting, but could happen next year as President Putin appears to be seeking a symbolic victory ahead of elections in 2024.
In addition, the US presidential election is also expected to impact the conflict in Ukraine. Former US President Donald Trump, a leading candidate of the Republican Party, has repeatedly stated that he could end the Russia-Ukraine conflict within 24 hours if re-elected.
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