Exports will be the engine driving GDP growth to 7.0%

Faced with the economic recovery, instead of striving for GDP growth of about 6.5%, the Prime Minister directed and managed socio-economic development, striving to achieve an annual growth rate of 6.5 to 7%.

“With the growth momentum of exports and imports of goods in the first 6 months of 2024, this goal is not too far-fetched,” Ms. Dinh Thi Thuy Phuong, Director of the Department of Trade and Service Statistics (General Statistics Office) hopes.

Ms. Dinh Thi Thuy Phuong, Director of Trade and Service Statistics Department (General Statistics Office)

The Government is striving for economic growth this year to reach an annual growth rate of 6.5 - 7%, instead of 6.5% as the target set in Resolution 93/NQ-CP dated June 18, 2024. What is your comment on this?

Vietnam's economy is highly open, GDP growth rate depends on many factors, including import-export results.

In the first 5 months of 2024, foreign trade activities have flourished. I think this is one of the reasons why the Government aims to strive for a GDP growth rate above the target assigned by the National Assembly, that is, 6.5% when issuing Resolution 93/NQ-CP dated June 18, 2024 on key tasks and solutions to promote growth, control inflation and stabilize the macro economy.

But after the results of production, business, public investment, foreign investment attraction..., especially the positive results from import-export activities in the first 6 months of 2024, the economic growth scenario for 2024 was updated.

Regarding import and export activities, some international organizations forecast that in 2024, global trade will increase; world consumer demand will recover; global inflation will continue to decrease to the target level... In particular, the World Bank (WB) forecasts that in 2024, global trade growth will reach 2.5%; the World Trade Organization (WTO) forecasts that world trade in goods will increase by 2.6% compared to 2023, due to increased demand for goods trading... In particular, markets that account for a large proportion of Vietnam's export value, such as the United States and the EU, are gradually controlling inflation, helping to increase purchasing power.

With the above positive trend, I believe that there is a scientific basis to strive to achieve the highest GDP growth target this year, under conditions where there are no adverse changes in the world and domestic markets.

In contrast to the first 6 months of 2023, the picture of foreign trade activities in the first 6 months of 2024 can be said to be quite bright?

One of the bright spots of the Vietnamese economy in the first 6 months of 2024 is the positive results in import and export turnover of goods. Specifically, the total import and export turnover is estimated at 368.5 billion USD, up 15.7% over the same period in 2023. Of which, exports are estimated at over 190 billion USD, up 14.5%; imports are estimated at 178.45 billion USD, up 17% over the same period in 2023.

Not only did import-export turnover hit a record (in the first half of the year), but Vietnam also had a trade surplus of goods estimated at 11.6 billion USD. This is the largest trade surplus in the first 6 months of the year ever, excluding the first 6 months of 2023 (trade surplus of 13.44 billion USD).

However, it must be emphasized that in the first 6 months of 2023, the large trade surplus was due to a decrease of 18% in imports (only reaching 152.6 billion USD), so the trade surplus warned of a decline in production activities. In the first 6 months of this year, although imports are estimated to increase by 17%, the trade surplus is still estimated to increase by 11.6 billion USD compared to the same period in 2023, reflecting a strong recovery in domestic production activities.

That's the general situation, but can you analyze more specifically about goods and export markets in the first half of this year?

By item, out of 45 main export items, in the first 6 months of 2024, 38 groups of goods increased compared to the same period in 2023 and accounted for 91.9% of the total export value. Of which, some key export items increased sharply compared to the same period last year, such as electronic computers and components estimated to increase by 28.6%; phones of all kinds and components estimated to increase by 11.3%; machinery, equipment, tools and spare parts increased by 16%.

Some of Vietnam's advantageous agricultural and forestry export items increased compared to the same period in 2023, such as coffee estimated to increase by 34.5%; seafood estimated to increase by 4.9%; vegetables and fruits estimated to increase by 28.2%; rice estimated to increase by 32.0%... Import turnover of some items serving the processing and production of some key products is estimated to increase highly, such as electronics, computers and components increased by 26.7%; machinery, equipment, tools, and other spare parts increased by 14.6%; phones of all kinds and components increased by 21.9%; textile fibers increased by 20.4%; textile, garment, and footwear materials increased by 17.5%; fabrics increased by 10.8%; cotton increased by 9%...

By market, the value of Vietnamese goods exported to a number of markets, in the first 6 months of 2024, is estimated to have grown quite strongly compared to the same period last year, in most of Vietnam's key markets, such as China, up 5.3%; the United States, up more than 22.1%; the EU, up about 14%...

With this positive signal, how do you predict import and export activities from now until the end of the year?

In my opinion, in the last 6 months of the year, if the world and domestic markets do not have any adverse changes, import-export activities are expected to continue to grow.

Many large enterprises maintain the trend of production recovery in the first months of 2024. In particular, textile and garment enterprises receive enough orders until the third quarter and the end of 2024, so they should invest in more machinery, equipment, production lines and recruit more workers to increase productivity, serve the production of export goods, contribute to increasing capacity, reducing product costs, and enhancing competitiveness in the export market.

The continued growth of import and export activities is also reflected in the Vietnam Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), which has increased continuously for the past 3 months and reached 54.7 points in June. There are 4 factors that influence the PMI, including new orders, output, employment, delivery times and inventories.

According to S&P Global, Vietnam’s new export orders increased, helping to push manufacturing output in June to its highest level in nearly six years, both in the domestic and foreign-invested sectors.

Although the export turnover has increased continuously, it is very positive, but in reality, Vietnam has not yet exploited the full potential of the world market. In your opinion, what needs to be done to maintain the export growth rate?

The above results were achieved thanks to the efforts of the Government, which has strongly directed ministries, branches and localities, and the determination of enterprises to take advantage of opportunities from free trade agreements (FTAs), increase trade promotion and promote Vietnamese products to the international market, while affirming the quality of Vietnamese goods that are trusted by the world.

However, in the coming time, it is necessary to implement a number of groups of solutions synchronously, flexibly and effectively to maintain export growth. In particular, the most important group of solutions is to consolidate traditional markets, expand new markets such as UAE, Africa, Latin America, Halal market...; effectively implement 16 signed FTAs ​​and promote the signing of new FTAs.

In addition, timely information is needed for businesses about adjustments to policies and regulations of countries on the export and import of goods, especially key agricultural products such as rice, coffee, etc. Relevant agencies and business associations must proactively handle, guide and support businesses in carrying out procedures, providing documents and information to meet the new regulations of partner countries.

China is our country's largest import-export market, Vietnam has the advantage of being adjacent to the "billion-people market" with dozens of international border gates. Therefore, it is necessary to improve efficiency and regulate the speed of customs clearance of import and export goods at the border gate area between Vietnam and China, at the same time promote a rapid and strong shift to official export instead of informal trade as before, because the other side has also changed its import-export method.

Source: https://baodautu.vn/xuat-khau-se-la-dau-may-keo-gdp-tang-truong-70-d219960.html