USD exchange rate increase: Challenge for import-export businesses

In the first months of this year, the USD price at commercial banks was adjusted to increase sharply. On April 9, 2025, the USD exchange rate at commercial banks exceeded 26,000 VND/USD for selling. On April 11, 2025, although the USD exchange rate decreased, it was still at a high level (25,920 VND/USD for selling). Financial experts predict that the USD price will increase by about 10% this year due to developments in US tariffs.

From the second quarter of 2025, import-export enterprises in Ha Tinh have accelerated their business, accordingly, the demand for import and export of goods is increasing. Recently, the sharp fluctuations in the USD exchange rate have affected the operations of these enterprises.

The recent increase in USD exchange rate has caused difficulties for Sao Mai Joint Stock Company (Cam Xuyen Industrial Park).

According to records, for large raw material importing enterprises, the increase in exchange rate will cause enterprises to compensate for additional costs. As for exporting enterprises, the increase in exchange rate will benefit; however, the profit from the increase in exchange rate also depends on the percentage structure of exported goods of the enterprise. That is not to mention the case where the increase in exchange rate will cause foreign partners to reduce import output from Vietnam, so the orders of exporting enterprises in Ha Tinh will decrease, so the benefit from the exchange rate will be limited.

Sao Mai Joint Stock Company (Bac Cam Xuyen Industrial Park) specializes in manufacturing packaging for export to the Korean market and Southeast Asian countries. Recently, the company has continuously encountered difficulties due to fluctuating exchange rates.

Ms. Tran Thi Khuyen - representative of Sao Mai Joint Stock Company said: "To maintain the production line, the company has to import plastic pellets from Korea with an output of about 125 tons/month. We import 60% of raw materials, so when the USD price increases, it leads to increased costs. On the contrary, companies exporting packaging to other countries, when the USD exchange rate increases, will earn more domestic currency. However, in the context of increasing exchange rates, these countries also reduce packaging import orders from our company, leading to a decrease in export orders. Accordingly, the export output in the first quarter of 2025 of Sao Mai Joint Stock Company generally decreased (reaching 20 million bags, down 15% compared to the same period last year), revenue of 81 billion VND (down 25 billion VND compared to the same period last year).

To cope with the situation of high USD exchange rate, Sao Mai Joint Stock Company has researched and decided to reduce the import of raw materials from 60% to 40% and increase the purchase of domestic raw materials from 40% to 60% to reduce costs. In addition, the company continues to invest in automatic production lines to increase labor productivity, reduce production costs, reduce product prices, and increase competitiveness in the market. At the same time, when export orders are on a downward trend, businesses are stepping up their search for domestic consumption partners to maintain a stable production chain and ensure jobs for workers.

Fiber manufacturing enterprises in Ha Tinh mainly import raw materials, so when the USD exchange rate increases, it will cause quite a lot of pressure.

Currently, Nghe Tinh Fiber Joint Stock Company (located at Nam Hong Industrial Park, Hong Linh Town) is also under pressure as the USD exchange rate increases.

Accordingly, this enterprise imports about 95% of cotton from the US, Brazil, India... to serve the yarn production line, so the increase in USD exchange rate will lead to additional costs. On the contrary, although the high exchange rate will increase the company's export revenue, the proportion of the company's export goods only accounts for 50% of the total consumption market structure, so it cannot compensate for the difference in raw material import costs.

Faced with the increase in USD exchange rate, Song La Xanh Packaging Joint Stock Company (Duc Tho Industrial Park) promptly researched and reduced the amount of imported plastic from the Korean and Singaporean markets to 10%; instead, the company increased the purchase of domestic raw materials to 90% of output.

According to Mr. Phan Tri Nghia - Chairman of the Board of Directors and Director of Song La Xanh Packaging Joint Stock Company: In the past time, the company has researched and promptly adjusted the structure of imported raw materials to make the most profit. In addition, the company focuses on applying technology, reducing costs in production to reduce product prices, creating competitiveness in the market. In parallel with exports, the company focuses on the domestic market with a revenue target of over 200 billion VND in 2025.

Production activities at Song La Xanh Packaging Joint Stock Company (Duc Tho Industrial Park).

According to an officer of a local commercial bank, in general, the increase in exchange rate also causes difficulties for import enterprises in financial planning because they cannot accurately forecast production costs, specific product prices, etc., thereby affecting the cash flow of USD loans at the bank.

Not to mention that the current USD loan interest rate at banks has also increased compared to 2024 (in 2024, the USD loan interest rate is 4.1%/year, while this year it is 4.5%/year - PV), which has put more pressure on import enterprises in the area such as: Hung Nghiep Formosa Ha Tinh Iron and Steel Company Limited, Vinatex Hong Linh Joint Stock Company, Havina Hong Linh Company Limited...

Recently, the leader of the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) said that the exchange rate issue is of concern to all businesses after US President Donald Trump announced the tax decree. The leader of SBV assessed that the complicated and unpredictable exchange rate developments were clearly evident after the US President announced the tax decree, especially when trade partners retaliated, the financial and monetary market will certainly be complicated every day, every hour.

Regarding the management orientation, the leader of the State Bank of Vietnam said that he will closely monitor market developments to operate tools and solutions with reasonable doses, especially considering harmonizing the exchange rate trade-off with the goal of reducing interest rates.

On April 11, 2025, Vietcombank listed the selling exchange rate at 25,920 VND/USD.

According to the Department of Industry and Trade of Ha Tinh, in the first quarter of 2025, the province's total export turnover reached 376.44 million USD, reaching 15% of the annual plan and decreasing by 37.7% compared to the same period in 2024; the total import turnover of the province reached 698.58 million USD, increasing by 5.82% compared to the fourth quarter of 2024.

Source: https://baohatinh.vn/ty-gia-usd-tang-thach-thuc-cho-doanh-nghiep-xuat-nhap-khau-post285828.html