The world faces the risk of beer shortage due to climate change

This is the warning recently issued by Mr. Atsushi Katsuki, CEO of Japan's Asahi Beer Company.

In an interview with the Financial Times , he cited an analysis conducted by Asahi Brewing Company that found higher temperatures would significantly reduce barley yields in major producing countries and affect hop quality over the next 30 years.

France's spring barley output could fall 18% by 2050, while Poland's could fall 15% if the Earth warms by 4 degrees Celsius under the worst-case scenario warned by the United Nations, the chief executive of Asahi Brewing Co. has warned.

The Czech Republic, one of the world's largest hop producers, will face a 25% decline in the quality of hops - a key ingredient for flavouring and preserving beer - which will lead to a global beer deficit, he added.

In a milder climate, where global warming is kept below 2 degrees Celsius, barley yields in France are expected to fall by 10% and in Poland by 9%. In the same climate, hop quality would fall by 13% in the Czech Republic, according to Katsuki.

“Even though with hotter weather, beer consumption may increase and become an opportunity for us, climate change will have a serious impact. There is a risk that we will not be able to produce enough beer,” Mr. Katsuki noted.

A study published in Nature Plants in 2018 also estimated that extreme droughts and heat waves caused by climate change could significantly reduce barley yields worldwide. As a result, we could see global beer shortages, a sharp decline in beer production, and high beer prices.

The researchers estimate that unconfirmed climate change could reduce global beer production by as much as 16%. Even if the weather turns out to be slightly less extreme than expected, beer production could still fall by 4% and prices could rise by 15%. It also appears that beer prices will spike the most in “relatively prosperous and historically beer-loving countries like Belgium, the Czech Republic, and Germany.”

“Many foods will see reduced productivity, and luxury goods will change as a result of climate change,” UK author Dabo Guan, professor of climate change economics at the University of East Anglia, told IFLScience .

“Take barley, for example. Only a small fraction of good quality barley is used to make beer, about 17%. The rest is grown to feed animals. And that good quality barley that is typically used to make beer is going to be much more vulnerable to the effects of climate change,” he added.

To find out, the researchers modeled the impacts of extreme weather events driven by climate change on barley production in 34 regions around the world. They then looked at how the resulting barley supply would impact the supply chain and change beer prices in each region.

Scientists spend a lot of time studying how climate change might affect crop yields. And rightly so, with estimates that climate change could cause more than half a million deaths from poor diets by 2050, particularly among poor people in low- and middle-income countries. While the effects of a beer shortage are certainly less dire – climate change could be considered a “first world problem” after all – daily life in the developing world could undergo some major changes if left unchecked.

“When climate change really happens, poor populations in developing countries will suffer the most from food security issues,” Professor Guan explained. “In richer developed countries, we may also experience some hunger, but it seems our way of life will be severely damaged.

“If there is a shortage of alcoholic beverages, we can have social stability problems, such as the “Black Market”. Whenever there is a shortage, illegal activities can often occur.”

Minh Hoa (reported by Lao Dong, Dan Tri)

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