The world is insecure before the turning point to a new situation

It was thought that after 2022 with many unexpected developments and "unthinkable" events, the world in 2023 would be more peaceful and predictable. But 2023 continues to prove that today's world is still full of uncertainties and more and more surprises.

World economic recovery is difficult

On the economic front, the world entered a recovery cycle with optimistic signals at the end of 2022, partly because it had adapted to the shocks in energy and food prices and inflation in 2022, and partly because of the prospect of China recovering from Covid-19, helping to revive the world economy.

However, the reality shows that there has been no miraculous recovery in 2023. Right from the beginning of the year, a series of bank failures in the US and Switzerland pushed global investors and consumers back into a “defensive” position, deepening concerns about a widespread economic recession, especially in the US.

Previous forecasts about China's development trend in 2023 were also somewhat off track. The prospect of China recovering strongly after two years of Covid-19 lockdown after the 20th Congress is unclear in the context of the economy continuing to face difficulties in the real estate market, local public debt crisis, unemployment among young workers, etc., making the economic recovery process difficult.

Although the world has had to adapt to the disruption of the energy supply chain caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the energy market cannot be stabilized, as the conflict suddenly broke out in the Gaza Strip, deepening the inherent instability in the Middle East oil basin. Meanwhile, the food supply chain has not been able to recover as food is increasingly securitized, forcing many countries to reconsider their food import and export policies. Climate change, with the Earth's temperature at its highest in 125,000 years, has made food security concerns even more urgent and serious.

The breakthrough of Artificial Intelligence is one of the most notable technology events in 2023. However, the excitement at the beginning of the year that ChatGPT-4 would drive new economic sectors was quickly replaced by concerns about its negative impacts, especially the possibility that artificial intelligence will replace many intellectual jobs in the future, including high-level workers in the fields of analysis, composition, design, etc. Therefore, instead of quickly taking advantage of and developing artificial intelligence technology, the world is looking for ways to control and build regulations for this cutting-edge field.

Stronger West-East, North-South Movement

In 2023, the world will continue to witness the shift in the balance of power and the "pivot" in many directions, especially the shift from West to East, North to South and the pivot towards the Asian region from many directions. Asia is still leading global growth, reaching 4.7-5%, about 3-3.2% higher than the world average. Many countries continue to issue or update their visions, strategies, and action plans towards the Indo-Pacific region. To date, more than 20 large and medium-sized countries have had strategies for this region, in which promoting relations with Southeast Asia and ASEAN are considered important components.

The year 2023 will see the rise of the South. The main reason is that the North is competing fiercely, causing the global “great rifts” that UN Secretary-General Antonio Guiteres has repeatedly warned about. The polarization between the North raises hopes that the South will be both the engine of world economic growth, contributing to solutions to global problems, and the intermediary to ease the geopolitical competition that has spread globally.

Along with the above-mentioned major shifts are new force combinations or renewals of long-standing force combinations. Many new force combinations, three or four parties with specific goals and flexible forms of grouping, have been and are being formed in the Asia-Pacific region. Some new force combinations appear for the first time in the region, such as the US-Japan-Korea summit at Camp David (USA, August 2023); the four-party cooperation between the US-Japan-Australia-Philippines (dubbed by commentators as the new “Quad”) shows that the US is actively consolidating its position and position in this global growth center.

Meanwhile, China is trying to show itself as a global power by continuously concretizing its initiatives and visions with concrete plans and actions. China's White Paper on "Global Community with Shared Future" issued in September 2023 is the clearest and most specific document on the world order that China desires and calls on the international community to join hands to build. China is trying to prove that it has solutions to global security issues and conflicts based on its own philosophy and culture with Chinese characteristics.

Fierce competition between major powers but not leading to direct confrontation

Competition between major powers, especially between China and the US, continues to be the most important relationship affecting the international economic and political situation in 2023. The "balloon" incident at the beginning of the year dispelled hopes of resuming high-level US-China exchanges to mend the stormy relationship between the two countries over the Taiwan Strait issue in 2022. The US's release of a report showing that the two countries have almost "scrambled" 300 times since September 2021 (an average of one every two days), shows that tensions and the risk of friction between the two countries are at a very high level.

However, 2023 also shows the efforts and determination of the two countries to control competition, not allowing friction to erupt into direct confrontation. Many meetings between foreign ministers, national security advisors and their counterparts between the two countries have taken place both publicly and secretly to maintain bridges and control relations, not allowing competition and confrontation to go too far. Therefore, the high-level meeting between President Xi Jinping and President Joe Biden in San Francisco on the sidelines of the APEC Summit took place as expected, helping the two countries resume defense communication and control strategic competition.

However, US-China competition is still taking place vigorously, especially in new spaces (such as in the air, under the sea), and implicitly in shaping global institutions. While China is trying to shape new institutions such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the BRICS... with multilateral institutions created by the West after World War II, the US seems to be leaning towards "demolishing and rebuilding" new institutions, especially economic institutions. US National Security Advisor Jake Sulivan, in a speech at the Brookings Institution in April 2023, expressed a vision of new overlapping, messy structures like Frank Gehry's architecture, not as neat and orderly as the Breton Woods system after World War II.

2024 big waves, strong winds?

The “multipolar, multicentric” world is taking shape. The transition to the new situation will hardly be easy or smooth. Changing the situation and the balance of power between major countries will inevitably create changes in the calculations and strategies of the countries involved, creating new sets of forces and conflicts of interest. In the process of that transition, new rules and “rules of the game” may be formed, but the old rules and regulations will not disappear.

2024 will be an important turning point in the transition period to a new world situation, in the context of the world economy forecast to slow down, many major countries such as Russia and the US entering important elections, many countries and territories in the region may have power transfers such as Singapore, Indonesia, Taiwan (China).

In such an uncertain world, Vietnam needs to be extremely vigilant and guard against unexpected factors, but also needs to be calm, confident and cautiously optimistic to quickly seize opportunities, even the smallest ones, to consolidate the situation and peaceful environment, promote cooperation to serve national interests and the common interests of the region and the world.

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