Although the market has shown more optimistic signs when the selling pressure has disappeared, the general index has gradually recovered, even increased well, but to confirm that it has found a balance point, almost the entire market assessed that it has not. Therefore, the first morning trading session of October continued to be in a state of stagnation.
Along with the general index fluctuating in a narrow range around the reference level, the highlight attracting investors' attention is still liquidity. This is the 6th consecutive session, the trading volume is gradually decreasing compared to the previous session. Even yesterday's session (October 2) was lost with the trading value on the HSX floor reaching approximately 11.5 trillion - the lowest level in the past 5 months. The trading volume in yesterday's session also decreased sharply compared to the average of 20 sessions. The lack of liquidity shows that the two recent increasing sessions lacked the momentum to break out, so the increasing trend is still leaning towards technical recovery.
Macroeconomic factors are supporting the scenario that the market will soon recover, while technical factors need to wait for further developments in the first trading week of October to determine the trend. In terms of macroeconomic factors, the exchange rate is at a high level, although lower than in 2022. However, in 2023, the State Bank's position will be strengthened thanks to the additional foreign exchange reserves in the first months of the year. In addition, low interest rates are a factor supporting the stock market, the possibility that the State Bank will not raise interest rates until the end of 2024.
The sharp decline in the market is mainly due to the impact of negative news on investor sentiment, pressure from margin debt, portfolio restructuring to lock in the net asset value of investment funds, etc. The government is combining monetary and fiscal policies to support the economy. Therefore, ignoring short-term technical factors, this is a good buying opportunity for the year-end target.
With the current developments, the index is likely to have a large fluctuation session this week to confirm whether it can continue to recover or not. Experts from TVSI Securities Company still maintain the view that the index is forming a horizontal accumulation zone around the current 1,150 point area to form a new price base and continue to recover. The strong resistance that the index is aiming for in the forecast recovery phase is the convergence area between the 50-session average line and the short accumulation zone before falling around the 1,200-1,215 point area.
Yuanta Vietnam Securities Company believes that the VN-Index may fluctuate around the 100-session moving average and the market may still be able to return to a downward trend in the next session. In general, investors are still worried about the current market developments and the market is still in the technical recovery phase. It is worth noting that weak demand has prevented the market from recovering strongly, so Yuanta experts are still hesitant about this recovery phase when there is no safe buying point.
Sharing the same view, Vietcombank Securities Company (VCBS) commented that although the general market is still shaking and the short-term trend is unclear, the differentiation is still clearly shown and looking for individual stocks. It is recommended that short-term investors can take advantage of the increasing sessions to restructure and reduce their portfolios, or can disburse to catch the bottom and surf with a low proportion of 10-25% of the account for stocks in industry groups that tend to recover better than the market.
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