According to a New York Times analysis of primary election data, many voters in Democratic strongholds across the country, from urban centers to the suburbs, did not turn out to vote for Vice President Kamala Harris. That was a lower turnout than President Joe Biden did in 2020. The data paints a picture of a landslide victory for Mr. Trump. The president-elect won the White House not only because he appealed to his supporters and undecided voters, but also because many Democrats stayed away from the 2024 election. In part, that may be because they disliked both candidates. In counties where Democrats won big in 2020, Ms. Harris received 1.9 million fewer votes than Mr. Biden. Meanwhile, in the 47 states that have almost completed their vote counts, counties with a lot of Republican voters will add 1.2 million votes to Mr. Trump’s 2024 tally. The decline is both demographic and economic. The trends are most pronounced in counties with the highest job growth, the most job losses and the highest proportion of college-educated voters. Turnout also fell in traditionally Democratic areas, including areas with large black, Christian and Jewish voters. And the fact that key cities like Detroit and Philadelphia have also seen this trend makes it especially difficult for Ms. Harris to gain an advantage in the battleground states of Michigan and Pennsylvania. These are signs that Democrats need to reinvent their approach to appeal to voters who are tired of the anti-Trump message and have lost faith in both parties. Because clearly in the previous 3 elections in 2018, 2020, 2022, many people still went to vote and brought good news to the Democratic Party.
Alarming numbers
In the battleground state of Pennsylvania, Mr. Trump’s victory was partly due to an unlikely reason: the five counties with the highest percentages of registered Democrats: Allegheny, Delaware, Lackawanna, Montgomery and Philadelphia. Ms. Harris won those counties, but not by enough margin to overtake the heavily Republican areas. Total turnout was down from 2020 in the five Democratic strongholds, partly explaining why Ms. Harris had 78,000 fewer votes than Mr. Biden. Meanwhile, Mr. Trump had 24,000 more votes in those five counties. That left Ms. Harris with virtually no chance of winning Pennsylvania. As of November 10, Mr. Trump was ahead by 145,000 votes. In Wisconsin, turnout was generally high, but heavily Democratic counties could not keep up with heavily Republican counties. In eight counties, including Milwaukee, Madison and the surrounding suburbs, Harris led Biden by about 20,000 votes. But Trump won by about the same amount. In the rest of Wisconsin, Democrats were defeated. In Michigan, Trump’s advantage was largely due to a drop in turnout in Wayne County, which includes Detroit and suburbs like Dearborn and Hamtramck, the most important source of Democratic votes. Although Harris won Wayne County, she won about 61,000 fewer votes than Biden, a 10% drop, while Trump won 24,000 more votes, a gain of about 9%. The change effectively ended Harris’s hopes of winning in Michigan, where Trump led by about 81,000 votes.
"Democratic Doomsday"
There are several reasons for this trend. First, voter turnout may be falling after a record high in 2020, thanks in part to rule changes during the Covid-19 pandemic that increased mail-in voting. Second, some analysts point to a post-pandemic trend in which voters tend to favor newcomers over incumbents, regardless of their political affiliation. This has been seen in countries like Japan, South Africa, South Korea and the UK. Third, the close results in swing states suggest Democrats have a chance to beat Trump again. Some officials say Harris didn’t have enough time to reorganize her campaign after Biden, whose approval ratings plummeted after his 2020 victory, withdrew. Third, many critics of the vice president’s campaign message say she’s wasting her time trying to appeal to Republican voters by campaigning with conservatives and preaching about threats to democracy. Instead, they say she should spend her time talking about how her economic policies will affect a critical but disaffected demographic.Ms. Harris's failure is considered to be an insufficiently convincing message. Photo: New York Times.
According to expert Branden Snyder, some activists in Detroit (Michigan) have questioned Ms. Harris's invitation to Ms. Liz Cheney - a former Republican congresswoman - to campaign together in this city. He said that many progressive voters in the city consider Ms. Harris to be moderate, so they would feel more convinced if a liberal talked about why they should vote for the vice president. Mr. Snyder also added that in the last week before the election, at the home of a middle-aged black woman, he could not find a way to convince her to vote. Black women have long been one of the most loyal groups of the Democratic Party. "When black women do not vote because they think voting will not change anything, that moment is the end of the world for the Democratic Party," he said. Fourth, the difference in the structure of the campaign between the Republican and Democratic parties also needs attention. Harris’s well-funded campaign relied on a traditional approach, placing field staff in offices across battleground states. To some extent, it worked, with Harris outvoting Biden in several battleground states. But that was overshadowed by Trump’s. Trump, meanwhile, took advantage of new federal election rules that for the first time allowed campaigns to work directly with outside groups to drive voter turnout. “Trump has a more aggressive, aggressive approach, delivering a consistently sharp message through rallies, podcasts, and appearances,” said Donna Brazile, a former chairwoman of the Democratic National Committee. “The Democrats seem to be focused on seven battleground states and that’s it.” znews.vn
Source: https://znews.vn/phat-hien-moi-ve-ket-qua-bau-cu-tong-thong-my-post1511106.html
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