The Vietnamese pepper market is in the final stages of the 2024 harvest, with stable trading prices at VND143,000 - 145,500/kg. However, with complicated developments in the domestic and international markets, pepper prices are likely to increase slightly in the coming months.
According to records, pepper prices today, October 14, 2024, remained stable compared to yesterday, the lowest level recorded in Binh Phuoc and Chu Se provinces (Gia Lai) at 143,000 VND/kg and the highest in Ba Ria - Vung Tau at 145,500 VND/kg.
World pepper prices also showed positive signs. At the end of the most recent trading session, the International Pepper Community (IPC) listed the price of Indonesian Lampung black pepper at 6,732 USD/ton, up 0.31%, and the price of Muntok white pepper at 9,002 USD/ton, up 0.31%. This reflects that global pepper demand remains high, creating momentum for domestic pepper prices to increase slightly.
However, the domestic pepper supply is facing many challenges. Pepper output in 2024 is estimated to decrease by 10% compared to 2023, to only about 170,000 tons - the lowest level in the past 5 years. Pepper growing areas are increasingly shrinking as farmers switch crops while the pepper supply in the global market is nearly 100,000 tons short of demand.
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| Pepper price forecast for tomorrow, October 15, 2024: Stable before the new harvest, price likely to increase slightly? |
In addition, the impact of El Nino climate change at the beginning of the year has negatively impacted the cultivation and maintenance of pepper gardens of farmers. Following that, the La Nina phenomenon has also had a significant impact on the psychology of farmers, especially at the present time when durian and coffee prices are at high levels. Therefore, pepper replanting is still not attractive enough.
Vietnam’s 2025 pepper harvest is expected to begin in February 2025, 1-2 months later than previous years due to the impact of prolonged drought. This will increasingly limit Vietnam’s pepper supply and push up pepper prices in the near future.
In addition, although China is Vietnam's largest pepper import market, import volume in the first 9 months of 2024 decreased sharply, global pepper consumption demand remains high.
In the context of limited supply, high demand and world pepper prices tending to increase slightly, domestic pepper prices are likely to increase slightly in the coming months.
However, to accurately predict pepper price movements in the coming time, it is necessary to closely monitor domestic and international market developments, especially weather conditions, harvest output, consumption demand and trade policies of countries.
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