America through the lens of the 2024 presidential election

This US presidential election seems to be not very smooth, containing almost all the coincidences and anomalies of history.

The US Presidential Election Law is quite massive and complicated in both the process and the relationship between the popular vote and the electoral vote. The number 60 of the 2024 election is associated with the meaning of a natural and social cycle.

This year's US Presidential election contains almost all the coincidences and anomalies of history... (Source: BBC)

Many stories are repetitive and unusual.

Just like 56 years ago (1968), a Republican candidate ran for re-election after losing the previous election. After 68 years (1956), American voters once again chose between two candidates facing off for the second time. Some US Presidents and presidential candidates have been assassinated, such as John F. Kennedy in 1963, Robert F. Kennedy in 1968 and Ronald Reagan in 1981. This time, former President Donal Trump has been assassinated at least once. Just recently, on September 15, the Republican candidate was attacked with a gun while playing golf in West Palm Beach, Florida, but luckily he was still safe.

In American history, there have been at least four presidential candidates who overcame scandals to win the election (Andrew Johnson in 1828, Richard Nixon in 1972...). This time, Mr. Donald Trump is involved in 4 criminal cases, if elected, there will be one more case. Previously, there were 2 incumbent US Presidents who decided not to run for re-election (Harry Truman in 1952, Lyndon Johnson in 1968) for different reasons. President Joe Biden is the same, but there are only more than 100 days left until the election, putting his replacement at a disadvantage in the final stages of the race.

If Kamala Harris is elected, it will be the first time the US has a female White House occupant. However, between now and the end of the 2024 presidential election, who knows what may happen, like the 2020 Capitol Hill riot. The presidential election process has revealed many major problems in American society.

The tense showdown and division of America

At the beginning of the live debate, the two presidential candidates shook hands in a friendly manner, but the atmosphere was still one of fierce confrontation, from style, language to basic contents of America. The debate showed that the two candidates, and more broadly the Republican and Democratic parties, expressed differences in vision for both domestic and foreign policies.

The issue that Americans are most concerned about and also the focus of debate is the economy and social life. Ms. Kamala Harris affirmed that the "greatest unemployment since the Great Depression" forced President Joe Biden to "clean up the mess left by Donald Trump"! In return, Mr. Donald Trump criticized high inflation under President Joe Biden as a "disaster" for the economy. The two candidates also have opposing views and attack each other on abortion, immigration and its impact on the economy and society.

The former President and current Vice President also clashed on foreign policy, especially issues related to hot spots and great power competition. Mr. Donald Trump strongly asserted that if he were in power, “the conflict in Ukraine and the Middle East would not happen” and that if elected, he would help end the conflict immediately. For the former President, Beijing is the top rival and he is “the only one who can confront China”. But the most important thing, how, he ignored.

Most Americans view the foreign policies of Presidents in terms of their interests; especially the ability to manage major-country competition and its impact on employment, consumer prices, and tax spending on support and handling external conflicts and disputes. On this issue, Donald Trump is slightly better.

The highlight of this debate was that the two candidates took advantage of the opportunity to criticize harshly, focusing on the weaknesses of their opponents rather than presenting their own new messages and directions. The economy was the central issue, the top priority, but neither Donald Trump nor Kamala Harris presented any clear policies.

This is understandable, because proposing new policies and guidelines, specifically, is difficult and can easily cause conflicts. Winning the hearts of some voters can lead to losing votes from others. The main purpose of direct debate is to criticize opponents and gain the support of voters, especially the moderate group that does not have a clear point of view.

According to the general assessment, the current Vice President was more confident, proactive, expressed his message and had appropriate strategies, causing the former President to not take advantage of his experience and fall into self-defense against his opponent's attacks. The results of a CNN poll right after the debate showed that more than 63% of Americans surveyed said that Kamala Harris performed better.

The live debate, perhaps the only time, easily highlights the contrast between the two candidates, so it is very important, attracting 67.135 million Americans to watch, far surpassing previous times. However, experts say it usually does not affect the final result much. The presidential election, the live debate and the attitudes of voters show that the number one power also has problems, America is deeply divided.

At present, the balance is somewhat tilted towards the incumbent Vice President, but the support rate of the two candidates is not too different. (Source: Foreign Policy)

Unpredictability and the world's perspective

At the moment, the balance is tilted towards Vice President Kamala Harris, but the two candidates' support rates are not too different. "Thirty is not yet Tet". More than 50 days are enough time for Mr. Donald Trump and his team of advisors to find a way to turn the situation around. Moreover, there are many factors, both internal and external, so the election results are difficult to predict.

Four major issues could have a strong impact on the election results. One is the sudden and widespread Russia-Ukraine conflict in the Middle East. Two is the major terrorism and riots in the United States. Three is the increasingly fierce confrontation between the two poles, between the unipolar and multipolar world orders, one led and dominated by the United States, the other led by China and Russia. Four is the difficult and declining US economy.

The first three issues are more or less related and may impact the fourth. The Biden administration will try to keep these mutations from happening until Election Day. But that is not entirely up to the US. In addition, the election results are also related to the interests and views of major ethnic communities in the US. Therefore, polling and forecasting data may be reversed, and it is not known what will happen.

Not only Americans but also the international community is paying close attention to the election on November 5. Because the US is the number one power and has influence in many fields and regions. Because of relations and interests, the perspective of each alliance and each country on the election results is different. Many Western countries and the European Union are concerned that if Donald Trump wins, they will limit aid to Ukraine and demand that they shoulder their own work, share and contribute more to the US "umbrella".

In fact, Donald Trump does not like Russia and President Vladimir Putin. His concern is the interests of the United States; the statement that taxpayers will not spend money on an irrelevant place (Ukraine) is a way to gain support from voters. In the live debate, the issue of Asia was barely mentioned, but the region is still a concern, a place where America's strategic interests compete.

It can be said that no matter who is elected President, the US will still pursue the policies of the Republican or Democratic Party. The new President can adjust policies at the tactical and strategic levels, but the basic national goals such as maintaining the position of the number one power, the leading role, influence and strategic interests of the US globally will remain unchanged.

Each country and organization can look forward to the favorable points in the policies of the US presidential candidate. But fundamentally, the decision is still to maintain independence, autonomy, multilateralization, diversification of relations, to proactively respond to all fluctuations.

Source: https://baoquocte.vn/nuoc-my-qua-lang-kinh-bau-cu-tong-thong-nam-2024-286386.html