At noon on November 13, banks simultaneously listed the selling price of each USD at 25,502 VND - the highest level in history. Since the beginning of the year, the Vietnamese Dong has lost about 4.5% of its value.
Banks continuously raise USD selling price to the ceiling - Photo: QUANG DINH
USD selling price increased very high
The State Bank announced the central exchange rate of the Vietnamese Dong against the USD on November 13 at 24,288 VND, an increase of 21 VND after just one session.
With a margin of +-5%, the VND-USD exchange rate at commercial banks is allowed to trade in the range of 23,073 - 25,502 VND.
At banks, the USD selling price was adjusted to the "ceiling" level this morning at 25,502 VND/USD - the highest level ever.
Since the beginning of the year, the USD price at banks has increased by nearly 4.5%, the depreciation of the dong has increased significantly compared to the greenback.
The continuous selling of USD at the ceiling price has narrowed the gap between the interbank market and the free market. This morning, foreign exchange offices listed the buying and selling prices of each USD at 25,540 - 25,650 VND, down 70 VND compared to yesterday's session.
Thus, the price of each USD sold on the "black market" is only 145 VND higher than the bank, while at times this gap is nearly 1,000 VND.
Ms. Hoang Viet Phuong - Director of SSI Securities Investment Analysis and Consulting Center - said that there is pressure on the exchange rate in the short term, especially this week due to external factors, combined with sudden capital withdrawal transactions on the stock market.
According to accumulated statistics from the beginning of the year until now, foreign investors have net sold more than VND85,000 billion in the Vietnamese stock market, equivalent to more than USD3.3 billion withdrawn despite the Fed cutting interest rates twice. This is also a record net withdrawal in the Vietnamese stock market in more than 20 years by foreign investors.
"Observing foreign transactions, we can see that net selling has been more regular since mid-month due to a narrowing of the purchase value - the beginning of the index's adjustment period. This partly shows that foreign net selling comes from concerns about exchange rate fluctuations and portfolio restructuring before the US election," said Ms. Phuong.
Will the exchange rate cool down by the end of the year?
Ms. Dinh Ha Anh, an analyst at MB Securities (MBS), said that since the beginning of October, the interbank USD/VND exchange rate has increased. The VND has depreciated about 4% against the USD since the beginning of the year and is approaching the peak of 4.6% recorded in May.
However, MBS experts still believe that the exchange rate pressure will soon cool down because this fluctuation is mainly affected by seasonal factors. In addition, the Fed's continued interest rate reduction cycle and timely intervention measures by the State Bank will also help control the increase in exchange rate pressure.
"We believe that exchange rate pressure will cool down and fluctuate in the range of VND24,800 - 25,000/USD by the end of 2024, supported by factors such as positive trade surplus, FDI inflows and strong recovery of tourism," said Ms. Dinh Ha Anh.
According to MBS experts, the stability of the macro environment is likely to be maintained and further improved, which will be the basis for stabilizing the exchange rate in 2024.
Regarding interest rates, Ms. Dinh Ha Anh forecasts that the recovery of credit growth in the context of production and investment accelerating more strongly in the last months of the year will partly put pressure on system liquidity and may lead to an increase in input interest rates.
"On the contrary, low inflation and the Fed's interest rate cut are expected to create more room for monetary policy easing in Vietnam. Based on the above factors, we forecast that 12-month deposit interest rates of major commercial banks will likely increase by 20 basis points, fluctuating around 5.1 - 5.2% by the end of 2024," MBS experts commented.
Source: https://tuoitre.vn/ngan-hang-ban-usd-gia-cao-nhat-lich-su-khoi-ngoai-rut-rong-ki-luc-chung-khoan-viet-nam-20241113124816826.htm
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