IMF forecasts global economic growth in 2025

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently improved its forecast for global economic growth in 2025 by 0.1 percentage points.

According to the IMF's latest Global Economic Prospects report, global economic growth is expected to be 3.3% in 2025 and 2026. In October 2024, IMF experts predicted that global economic growth would be 3.2% in 2025.

“ Global economic growth is expected to be stable, but not outstanding ,” IMF experts said.

The IMF report explained that the improvement in the US economic growth forecast offset the decline in economic growth rates in other major countries.

In the medium term, the IMF forecasts global economic growth to decline by 3% compared to 2025-2026. Meanwhile, in the short term, experts predict that the US economic growth rate will accelerate and growth will slow in most other economies.

Global economic growth is expected to be 3.3% in 2025 and 2026. Photo: Pixabay

“ Increased protectionist measures, such as in the form of tariffs, could increase trade tensions, reduce investment, reduce market productivity, and disrupt trade flows and supply chains that could be affected in both the short and medium term ,” IMF experts said.

Regarding global inflation, the IMF forecasts it will fall to 4.2% in 2025 and 3.5% in 2026. However, IMF experts emphasize that in countries with advanced economies, inflation will return sooner than in emerging market and developing countries.

In the bad debt scenario, the IMF forecasts that public debt could reach 115% of global GDP in the next 3 years. The risk of debt default remains a constant challenge that has not been completely resolved in many low-income countries.

Notably, the continued and complicated development of armed conflicts is the biggest constant risk to the world economy. Along with that, extreme weather phenomena such as droughts, storms, and floods cause serious consequences, threatening the stability of supply chains, food security, economic security, and creating fluctuations in the prices of essential goods.

According to a recent United Nations report, global economic growth is forecast to remain at 2.8% in 2025, unchanged from 2024, held back by the two leading economies, the US and China.

In addition, IMF experts believe that the average price of a barrel of oil will be 69.76 USD in 2025 and 67.96 USD in 2026. At the same time, according to the October 2025 forecast, the price of a barrel of oil will be 72.84 USD.

In its latest Global Economic Prospects report, the World Bank (WB) said that global GDP growth will reach 2.7% in 2025 and 2026, equal to the level achieved in 2023 and 2024.

However, this increase is 0.4 percentage points lower than the average of the period 2010-2019. The economic decline reflects the prolonged damage caused by negative factors in recent years such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Source: https://congthuong.vn/imf-du-bao-tang-truong-kinh-te-toan-cau-nam-2025-370173.html