What is the forecast for coffee export prices in 2024?

Robusta coffee export prices hit 28-year high Coffee export prices continue to rise amid concerns about supply shortage

At the end of the year, the world price of Robusta coffee reached a 28-year high due to low inventories and limited sales. Therefore, in 2023, Vietnam's coffee exports will benefit from the increase in the world price of Robusta coffee.

The upward price trend was also reflected on the London exchange. Specifically, Robusta coffee futures for delivery in January 2024, March 2024, May 2024 and July 2024 increased by 21.9%, 15%, 13.6% and 12.8% respectively (compared to November 30, 2023), to US$3,075/ton, US$2,837/ton, US$2,766/ton and US$2,704/ton.


Vietnam's coffee exports in 2023 will reach approximately 1.61 million tons, worth 4.18 billion USD.

Xuất khẩu cà phê sang Bắc Âu - Tiềm năng và thách thức

Vietnam's coffee exports in 2023 will reach approximately 1.61 million tons, worth 4.18 billion USD.

According to the Import-Export Department, Ministry of Industry and Trade, if at the beginning of 2023, the coffee price was at 40,000 VND/kg, then starting from May 2023, the price showed signs of increasing and from the third quarter of 2023, the price of Robusta coffee increased sharply to 67,200-68,000 VND/kg at the end of November 2023 and lasted until the beginning of 2024.

It is estimated that Vietnam's coffee exports in 2023 will reach approximately 1.61 million tons, worth 4.18 billion USD, down nearly 10% in volume, but up more than 3% in value compared to 2022. The average export price of coffee in 2023 will reach 2,834 USD/ton, up more than 14% compared to 2022.

The latest report of the International Coffee Organization (ICO) said that global coffee output in the 2023/2024 crop year is forecast to increase by 5.8% compared to the 2022/2023 crop year, to 178 million bags (60 kg/bag), of which Arabica output increases by 8.7% to 102.2 million bags and Robusta increases by 2.2% to 75.8 million bags.

With this result, the Ministry of Industry and Trade forecasts that in 2024, the Vietnamese coffee industry will continue to benefit from the high price of Robusta coffee, which may even peak due to the shortage of supply. It is predicted that the increase in world coffee prices will slow down or reverse in the second half of 2024.

According to the Import-Export Department, Ministry of Industry and Trade, in 2024, there will be a lot of conflicting information affecting global coffee prices. In the first quarter of 2024, Robusta and Arabica coffee prices will remain high due to concerns about supply shortages and the lowest inventory in the past 12 years. This forecast is more or less well-founded because in the latest report of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), the world's Robusta coffee inventory in the 2023/2024 crop year reached 26.5 million bags (60kg), down 16.7% compared to the previous report and down 4% compared to the estimate for the 2022/2023 crop year.

However, the increase in world coffee prices will slow down or turn down in the second half of 2024. The reason is that the world coffee production in the 2023/2024 crop year will increase.

According to the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association, in the 2023/2024 crop year, Vietnam's coffee output is expected to decrease to 1.6 - 1.7 million tons, from 1.78 million tons in the 2022/2023 crop year.

This association believes that in 2024, the Vietnamese coffee industry needs to focus on many solutions for sustainable development, traceability, especially meeting the EU's EUDR anti-deforestation regulations.

Regarding export regions, in the first 11 months of 2023, Vietnam's coffee export turnover to Asia, America and Africa increased, but to Europe and Oceania decreased. Specifically, the proportion of coffee exports to Asia and Africa increased from 35.11% and 4.08% in the first 11 months of 2022 to 37.72% and 5.57% in the first 11 months of 2023, respectively.

In contrast, the proportion of coffee exports to Europe and Oceania decreased from 48.12% and 1.46% in 11 months of 2022 to 44.29% and 1.20% in 11 months of 2023. In 11 months, Robusta and processed coffee exports increased by 3.7% and 27.2% over the same period in 2022, reaching 2.71 billion USD and 776 million USD, respectively. In contrast, Arabica and Excelsa coffee exports decreased by 37.3% and 5.7%, reaching 145 million USD and 5 million USD, respectively.

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