Gold prices fluctuate strongly, should you invest now?

Mr. Quoc Tuan (Thanh Xuan, Hanoi) has 500 million VND in savings at the bank but the interest rate is continuously decreasing. He is considering whether to withdraw some of it to buy gold when the maturity date is approaching.

"Will the domestic gold price continue to increase from now until the end of the year? Should we risk 'surfing' to make a profit at this time?", Mr. Tuan wondered.

Commenting on the price of gold in the coming time, in an interview with PV.VietNamNet, economic expert Nguyen Tri Hieu said that at this time, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) did not raise interest rates but the inflation rate in the US has increased to 3.7%, higher than last month; while their inflation target is still 2%.

He believes that it is very likely that the Fed will raise interest rates in December.

gold investment.jpg — Gold price approaches 71 million VND/tael, investors wonder whether they should invest now? (Photo: Duy Anh)

According to Mr. Hieu, the value of the USD is still high, so there is a force pushing the price of gold down. However, the inflation situation in the US is still very tense, so it is also a force pushing the price of gold up.

"The world gold price is torn between upward and downward forces. Although the world gold price has decreased a bit, it is still on an upward trend. The domestic gold price follows the world gold price so it increases and has now exceeded 70 million VND/tael. The economic problems in Vietnam are not optimistic, which is a factor that continues to push the domestic gold price up," Mr. Hieu analyzed.

According to the expert, the probability of domestic gold prices increasing is higher than the probability of remaining the same or decreasing.

“The world gold price is likely to increase from now until the end of the year, at $1,990/ounce. But the probability of it increasing to $2,000/ounce is about 40%; and 60% is below $2,000/ounce.

Domestic gold prices are likely to increase to 72-73 million VND/tael, especially at the end of the year near Tet, when demand for gold increases," Mr. Hieu predicted.

Therefore, Mr. Hieu believes that for individual investors, this is the time to buy gold. However, the price of gold can drop at any time, because it is a very volatile market.

Therefore, he does not advise individual investors to buy and sell gold in a “quick fix” manner. If they buy gold, they should hold it for a period of time, at least 6 months.

For professional investors who closely monitor the gold market and have many derivative tools to limit risks, expert Nguyen Tri Hieu noted that this is also the time to buy gold.

Giving a different point of view, economic expert Dinh Trong Thinh commented that the world gold price will determine the domestic gold price. Although not completely connected with the world gold price, but basically, when the world gold price goes up, the Vietnamese gold price also goes up, and when the world gold price goes down, the domestic gold price also goes down.

“From now until the end of the year, the world gold price will hover around the 1,900-2,000 USD/ounce mark. Therefore, the Vietnamese gold price will be at the same level; there will be a chance for the price to decrease to 67-68 million VND/tael,” Mr. Thinh told PV. VietNamNet.

The analyst said the Vietnamese Dong remains stable against the USD. Currently, the VND has only decreased by 2.24% against the USD since January 1, 2023.

“You can invest at any time, but the question is how to invest appropriately. The current gold price in Vietnam is relatively high, so you should only sell, not buy. If you still decide to buy, you should be careful,” Mr. Thinh advised.

At the end of the trading session on November 2, domestic gold prices were on a downward trend. SJC gold bar prices in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City were listed at VND69.9 million/tael (buy) and VND70.62 million/tael (sell).

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