The race for Japan's leadership is fierce.

There are currently nine candidates vying for the LDP presidency. Since this is the ruling party in Japan, whoever becomes LDP president will replace the current Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to lead the government. All nine candidates are prominent figures in Japanese politics.

Not a small burden

On September 14, all nine candidates gathered at the Japan Press Club to discuss their upcoming policies for the country. According to The Japan Times, the discussions were wide-ranging, covering a number of issues, including Japan’s relations with the United States and China, as well as how to restore public confidence in the LDP.

Gay cấn cuộc đua vào ghế lãnh đạo Nhật Bản- Ảnh 1. — Candidates for the LDP presidency at the Japan Press Club on September 14. *From left:* Sanae Takaichi, Takayuki Kobayashi, Yoshimasa Hayashi, Shinjirō Koizumi, Yōko Kamikawa, Katsunobu Katō, Taro Kono, Shigeru Ishiba, Toshimitsu Motegi

Previously, in mid-August, Mr. Kishida officially announced that he would not run for LDP president in September. The decision was made when Mr. Kishida was under pressure for his handling of the LDP-related scandal. The most prominent scandal of the LDP was the one in November 2023, when false reports on the party's fundraising finances were made public, angering the Japanese people. After that, Mr. Kishida restructured the apparatus but failed to meet expectations. Along with the scandals was the internal factionalism of the LDP.

Although not personally implicated in the scandals, Prime Minister Kishida has been accused by the media and public of mismanagement. In a Kyodo News poll in June, only about 10.4% of the Japanese public wanted Kishida to continue as prime minister, while the opposition rate was 62%.

The most notable achievements during Mr. Kishida's tenure were strengthening the alliance with the United States, giving Japan a greater position in many international and regional issues, and demonstrating a tough stance towards both China, Russia and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea. In particular, he resolved many long-standing disagreements with South Korea, allowing the two countries to make much progress in strengthening bilateral relations.

Assessing Prime Minister Kishida's tenure, Professor James Brown, specializing in political science at Temple University in Japan, said that Prime Minister Kishida did a good job, but he was unlucky because he was the "very unfortunate" victim of a political party tainted by scandals.

In fact, with nearly 3 years in power (taking office in October 2021), Mr. Kishida is still the 8th longest-serving Japanese Prime Minister since World War II. If counting from 2000 to now, Japan has had 11 prime ministers, Mr. Kishida is the 3rd longest-serving, only after Mr. Shinzo Abe (nearly 9 years) and Mr. Junichiro Koizumi (about 5 and a half years).

The bright stars

After Mr. Kishida withdrew and 9 candidates appeared to compete for the position of LDP President, the 4 most prominent people were Mr. Shinjiro Koizumi, Taro Kono and Shigeru Ishiba, along with Ms. Sanae Takaichi. Among them, Mr. Shinjiro Koizumi is the son of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi.

Responding to Thanh Nien yesterday, September 15, Professor Stephen Robert Nagy (International Christian University - Japan, scholar at the Japan Institute of International Affairs) analyzed: "The election of LDP president will be decided by the conservative members who make up the majority in the party". Therefore, the candidate with the advantage must be someone who has a conservative stance on issues that are truly important to voters, has experience controlling internal factions of the LDP...

From the above factors, Professor Nagy assessed: "Although Mr. Shinjiro Koizumi is emerging, his young age and experience are weaknesses. Mr. Taro Kono and Mr. Shigeru Ishiba are both famous figures to the public, but within the party they do not receive much support. Mr. Ishiba also cannot communicate in foreign languages, which is also a weakness."

"Thereby, Ms. Sanae Takaichi has become the brightest face. Currently holding the position of Minister of Economic Security, Ms. Takaichi was once supported by the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. At the same time, she also has experience organizing in the LDP. Her experience as a Japanese parliamentarian and her youth in the US working for a Japanese parliamentarian, as well as her strong views on security and the importance of the US-Japan alliance, will all be an advantage," said Professor Nagy.

According to the expert, the LDP leadership election within the party is probably not about who is more popular among the people but rather about who can truly be a strong leader for Japan.

"Accordingly, the LDP President will have to be someone who can deal with international challenges between the leaders of China, Russia, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, and even in the event that Donald Trump or Kamala Harris are elected President of the United States in the near future. Also judging by this factor, in the context of a challenging world, Ms. Sanae Takaichi will most likely become the first female president of the LDP and also the first female Prime Minister of Japan," Professor Nagy assessed.

Meanwhile, if Mr. Shinjiro Koizumi wins, he will become the youngest prime minister in Japanese history.