Cash flow returns, helping VN-Index reach 2-year high

The VN-Index closed the week at its highest level in more than two years. Illustration photo: VNA

A good week

According to Vietnam Construction Securities Joint Stock Company (CSI), the stock market did not start the new week very enthusiastically when profit-taking pressure caused the index to adjust slightly in the first trading session of the week. However, it did not take too long for the index to regain its upward momentum. The market increased by more than 20 points after that with 4 consecutive increasing sessions.

Cash flow exploded strongly in the mid- and small-cap group while the blue-chip group (stocks of large companies, leading companies, stable and highly reputable in the market) took turns increasing points to keep the market in rhythm. The pressure of fluctuations tended to increase slightly in the last two trading sessions of the week, but the market remained stable thanks to the buying pressure still overwhelming the short-term profit-taking pressure.

Closing the trading week from February 17 to 21, VN-Index was at 1,296.75 points, up 20.67 points compared to the end of last week, this was the highest level of the past week. Order matching liquidity increased for the 4th consecutive week, exceeding 32.3% compared to the average level of 20 trading weeks.

Accumulated for the whole trading week, average liquidity on HOSE reached 730 million shares (up 28.09% compared to the previous week), equivalent to VND 16,307 billion (up 15.09%) in trading value.

Last week, 15 out of 21 industry groups increased in points. Leading the market's increase and trading sentiment last week were industry groups such as industrial real estate (up 5.88%), insurance (up 4.47%), construction (up 3.6%), plastics (up 3.34%)...

On the contrary, adjustment pressure casts a shadow on some industries such as consumer goods (down 3.46%), aviation (down 2.06%), telecommunications technology (down 1.99%)...

Foreign investors had their fourth consecutive week of net selling on the HOSE, with a trading value of VND979 billion. The focus of foreign investors' net selling last week was on large-cap stocks such as MWG (VND374 billion), FPT (VND277 billion), and VNM (VND187 billion).

Experts from CSI said that although the stock market has not yet reached the 1,300 point mark, last week was a week of positive trading for the stock market.

Green completely dominated last week (15/21 industry groups increased points); in which, it focused on large-cap and highly sensitive industry groups such as banking up 1.5%, securities up 3.02%, residential real estate up 3.03%, construction up 3.6%, insurance up 4.47%, industrial park real estate up 5.88%...

Technically, the uptrend continues to be consolidated after the recent "explosive" increase in both amplitude and liquidity. "We expect the VN-Index to soon surpass the psychological mark of 1,300 points and move towards the resistance zone of 1,307 - 1,327 points in the coming weeks," CSI commented.

VNDIRECT Securities Joint Stock Company (VNDIRECT) believes that the stock market's growth is driven by positive domestic and international macroeconomic information.

Specifically, concerns about US tariff policies have temporarily "cooled down" as the US government has not made any further significant tax moves, leading to a decline in the dollar index to around 106.5 points.

VNDIRECT believes that concerns about exchange rate risks have been “largely” reflected in prices and the market is gradually shifting to more topical stories such as the 8% GDP growth target and upcoming government policies to boost the economy.

Last week, the National Assembly officially approved the GDP growth target of 8% or more in 2025. This is a very ambitious target, so VNDIRECT expects that the Government will soon introduce drastic policies to realize this growth target, including expanding fiscal and monetary policies.

Last weekend, important information related to steel stocks also appeared when the Ministry of Industry and Trade issued Decision No. 460/QD-BCT, applying temporary anti-dumping tax on hot-rolled coil (HRC) steel products from China and India.

This tax rate ranges from 19.38% to 27.83%, effective for 120 days from March 8, 2025. According to VNDIRECT, this information will have a positive impact on steel stocks, especially HPG.

With current developments, VNDIRECT believes that the VN-Index may continue to move upward and challenge the strong resistance level of 1,300 points next week.

The market may experience fluctuations in this area when a portion of investors realize profits. However, VNDIRECT believes that the probability of the market surpassing 1,300 points has increased significantly and investors should take advantage of short-term corrections, if any, to increase the proportion of stocks, prioritizing businesses in industries with support stories such as public investment, construction materials, banking, residential real estate and securities.

According to Saigon - Hanoi Securities Joint Stock Company (SHS), the short-term trend of VN-Index is to grow above the support level of around 1,280 points, heading towards the strong resistance level of 1,300 points. This is the peak price zone in August 2022 as well as the peak zone in 2024 and is the upper edge of the current medium-term accumulation channel.

"At the present time, we should wait for the medium-term trend to escape the current prolonged accumulation state. With quite positive developments in the trend and liquidity increasing steadily in recent weeks, VN-Index has the prospect of surpassing the resistance zone of 1,300 points," SHS said.

According to SHS, the market has increased for 5 weeks with increasing trading volume. Trading activities are quite active, rotating between industry groups. This is a quite positive price increase with increasing liquidity, showing improved cash flow and market sentiment.

SHS believes that liquidity on HOSE is still below the average of VND 18,760 billion/session in 2024. Therefore, for VN-Index to overcome the very strong resistance zone, good growth momentum from businesses is needed. This depends largely on the banking and real estate stocks, which are the two groups with high capitalization rates in the market today, as well as market liquidity that needs to continue to improve, exceeding the average level of 2024.

However, SHS experts commented that market quality is still improving positively, with good differentiation based on fundamental factors and medium- and long-term growth expectations.

In fact, the movements of the Vietnamese stock market are showing positivity, while the world's largest stock market is going down.

Dow Jones posts biggest weekly drop in four months

On the last trading session of the week, February 21, US stocks fell sharply, extending the sell-off after gloomy economic reports.

All three major US stock indexes fell last week, with the Dow Jones posting its biggest drop since mid-October 2024, capping a trading week weighed down by concerns over new tariff threats and weakening consumer demand.

On the last trading session of the week, February 21, US stocks fell sharply, extending the sell-off after gloomy economic reports. At the end of this session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.69% to 43,428.02 points. This was the lowest closing level of this index since January 16, before Mr. Donald Trump took office as US President on January 20.

The S&P 500 also fell 1.71% to 6,013.13. The session's biggest percentage drop for both the Dow and S&P 500 since Dec. 18, 2024, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index also fell 2.2% to 19,524.01.

According to Chris Williamson, chief economist at financial data firm S&P Global, US businesses are no longer optimistic about the economic outlook, which is making investors nervous, leading to strong volatility in the stock market. This uncertainty and market volatility will last at least until the end of March.

President Donald Trump said he would soon announce new tariffs on timber and forestry products, in addition to previously announced plans to impose duties on imported cars, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals.

Van Giap (Vietnam News Agency)

Source: https://baotintuc.vn/thi-truong-tien-te/dong-tien-tro-lai-giup-vnindex-len-moc-cao-nhat-2-nam-20250223132355736.htm