Secretary of State Blinken's "tough" persuasion trip

As tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate, especially after the US launched retaliatory airstrikes against militant groups in Iraq and Syria, will Secretary of State Antony Blinken's trip help cool down the Middle East?

PLO Secretary General Hussein al-Sheikh (center) welcomes Secretary of State Antony Blinken before a meeting with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in the West Bank town of Ramallah, February 7. (Source: Mark Schiefelbein/Pool via REUTERS)

Since the conflict broke out again in the Gaza Strip after Hamas' attack on Israeli territory on October 7, 2023, this was the US Secretary of State's fifth trip to the "fire pit" of the Middle East.

According to observers, Mr. Blinken's shuttle trips to the Middle East during the crisis have different contexts and goals, but in general, they aim to seek a ceasefire, reach a mutually acceptable solution to the Israel-Hamas conflict, create conditions for humanitarian aid and prevent the spread of war, and move towards a long-term stable solution for the region.

Is the mission feasible?

However, the US Secretary of State's "fire-fighting" trips do not seem to have brought about the landmark results that Washington had hoped for. The US still has strong, superior responses aimed at forces in Syria, Lebanon... Therefore, after nearly 150 days and 5 regional tours by the US Secretary of State, the situation in the Middle East and especially in the Gaza Strip still has new escalating developments, even oil from Gaza has spread to the Red Sea, Syria, Lebanon...

In such a context, Secretary of State Antony Blinken's trip to the region with stops in Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Qatar, Israel and the West Bank this time is extremely heavy: reaching an agreement to release hostages, a long-term ceasefire, preventing the conflict from spreading further so that he can focus on the US presidential election that is heating up every day in the country.

First of all, to reach an agreement to temporarily stop fighting, exchange hostages, and move towards a lasting peace solution between Hamas and Israel, Mr. Blinken's top priority is to bring the views and demands of both sides closer together and find a solution that all parties involved can accept.

But to achieve this, it is not a matter of one day or one afternoon and certainly not easy. The US Secretary of State must not only convince the leaders in Tel Aviv and Hamas but also influence and satisfy direct mediators in the region such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Qatar in addition to external forces whose every move can affect the situation in the Middle East such as Iran...

Surely with such a heavy task, Secretary of State Blinken must have prepared and consulted carefully before leaving. According to the media, before that, in a meeting in Paris with the presence of representatives of Israel, Qatar and Egypt... Washington proposed to cool down the situation, including a hostage exchange and a long-term ceasefire agreement. In the first phase of the ceasefire, 35-40 Israeli hostages will be released. Each released Israeli hostage will be exchanged for 100-250 Palestinian prisoners being held in Israel. After that, it is possible to negotiate an extension of the ceasefire to release more Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners in the next phases of the agreement.

If Washington's proposal is accepted by Israel and Hamas, the new deal is expected to secure the release of more than 100 remaining Israeli hostages still held in Gaza and establish a longer-lasting ceasefire than the previous agreement.

The gap is still wide open.

However, it seems that Foreign Minister Antony's efforts have not been able to shake the "consistent" stance of Tel Aviv, especially the head of the Israeli government, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. During the Israeli stop, in separate meetings with the President and Prime Minister of Israel in Tel Aviv on February 7, although Secretary of State Antony Blinken reaffirmed US support for Israel's right to ensure that attacks like those on October 7 will never be repeated.

Mr. Blinken also stressed the importance of taking every possible measure to protect civilians in Gaza and efforts to release the remaining hostages as well as the importance of delivering humanitarian aid to the displaced people in Gaza, but Prime Minister Netanyahu remained determined to pursue Tel Aviv's hard-line solution.

Speaking at a press conference in Jerusalem on February 7, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continued to affirm that only military measures can ensure the rescue of hostages being held by Hamas forces in the Gaza Strip. The head of the Israeli government described the ceasefire conditions proposed by the Islamic movement Hamas as 'illusory'.

Mr. Netanyahu affirmed that the Israelis cannot accept this condition because it is a surrender to Hamas. The Israeli Prime Minister announced that Tel Aviv will continue to increase military pressure to release the hostages. At the press conference, the Israeli Prime Minister also declared that a complete victory in the war against Hamas in Gaza is "within reach" and will end in a few months. Previously, Prime Minister Netanyahu has repeatedly stated that "only ceasefire when Hamas is defeated and will not accept the exchange of hostages at any price, except for Hamas' surrender or elimination".

Meanwhile, according to regional and international sources, Hamas forces have agreed to some of the new ceasefire proposals in Gaza put forward by the US and mediators, although they previously requested a permanent ceasefire and the release of thousands of prisoners serving sentences in Israel for crimes related to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, including those serving life sentences.

Accordingly, the Palestinian armed group proposed a 4.5-month ceasefire to exchange hostages in three stages and move towards ending the war in Gaza. According to Israeli media, this proposal was sent by Hamas to Egyptian and Qatari mediators last week.

Also on February 7, while receiving Secretary of State Antony Blinken in the West Bank, Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas continued to call on Washington to recognize the State of Palestine, including the West Bank, East Jerusalem and the Gaza Strip. Mr. Abbas also asked the US to support Palestine to become a full member of the United Nations, while emphasizing that peace and security can only be achieved through a two-state solution. The Palestinian leader also called on the US and the international community to make more efforts to prevent Israel from forcing Palestinians to evacuate the Gaza Strip, as well as to end attacks on Palestinians, especially in the Jordan Valley.

With the goals of the parties still being so far apart and so different, it can be seen that bringing the parties closer together to cool down the Israel-Hamas conflict is not possible overnight. Especially, the views and demands of the parties are still very different. Especially, in the context of Washington still taking military retaliation actions against forces believed to be pro-Iran in Syria and Lebanon along with recent developments in the Red Sea, Secretary of State Blinken's "both-punishing and-comforting" trip is unlikely to achieve the goals set out as expected by Washington.

Source: https://baoquocte.vn/chuyen-thuyet-khach-kho-nhan-cua-ngoai-truong-blinken-260379.html