Waiting for the 'expected star' of the real estate market

Since mid-2022, the real estate market has remained stagnant. Although the market has improved in transaction volume over the months and quarters, it has not yet been able to break through.

In that context, many experts and real estate market research organizations have made forecasts about when the market will recover.

Illustration photo. (Source: TVPL)

Some of the most optimistic forecasts believe that the market will recover in mid- to late 2023, or early 2024. However, the actual developments show that the market is still "inactive".

Up to now, many opinions expect that the new regulations will create momentum for the market to recover and grow strongly. In particular, the "expected stars" are the Housing Law 2023, the Real Estate Business Law 2023 and the Land Law 2024, which will take effect on August 1, that is, less than 1 month from now.

Associate Professor, Dr. Tran Kim Chung, former Deputy Director of the Central Institute for Economic Management, commented: The fact that the three laws related to the real estate market took effect 5 months earlier is expected to help the market move out of the state of waiting for half a year. In addition, the economy continues to develop steadily, public investment is accelerated, a large amount of capital will be disbursed. The real estate market will benefit from that.

Associate Professor, Dr. Tran Kim Chung gives 3 scenarios for the market from now until the end of the year.

In the first scenario, the market moves sideways, extrapolates, and progresses. This is the main option because the real estate market moves from waiting mode to execution mode.

“Because three laws related to the real estate market are expected to take effect, many businesses have planned to operate in 2024 as a standby mode because adjusting production and business takes time. Therefore, the real estate market in the last 6 months of the year will not have many major fluctuations but will mainly operate as expected but with a more positive trend,” said Mr. Chung.

The second scenario is a market that grows but does not boom. This scenario occurs if additional factors converge, such as a positive economic and global context, continued good macroeconomic performance, contained inflation, a well-managed 30% increase in basic wages for workers and 15% for pensioners, and foreign investment that attracts one or more strategic investors.

The third scenario is a booming market. This scenario will happen if a number of particularly positive conditions converge, such as strategic investors coming to invest and seek investment opportunities in Vietnam as in the period 2004 - 2007; tourism develops strongly again, the macro economy booms, derivative financial instruments such as real estate investment trust funds, mutual savings funds; the re-mortgage system is formed; the condotel-officetel issue is handled in writing, the mechanism for reclaiming land adjacent to infrastructure works is operated synchronously and fully; the pilot mechanism for recognizing investors of commercial housing projects when investors already have land but it is not yet residential land is operated...

"The above scenario is assessed to have too many hopeful factors, it can still happen but the possibility is not high," Mr. Chung expressed his personal opinion.

Meanwhile, Mr. Hoang Hai, Director of the Department of Housing and Real Estate Market Management (Ministry of Construction) said that the real estate laws taking effect early from August 1 with many new and superior points are expected to create a source of "support" for the economy in general and the real estate market in particular.

Source: https://www.congluan.vn/cho-doi-ngoi-sao-ky-vong-cua-thi-truong-bat-dong-san-post302982.html