Ukraine's counter-offensive has begun after a long period of preparation. What is behind this special event?
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| For over a week, Ukraine has been launching a counter-offensive campaign to retake areas currently controlled by Russia. Illustrative photo. (Source: AFP/Getty Images) |
Caution is necessary
In fact, as early as June 4, Moscow announced a “large-scale offensive operation” by Kiev forces in Donetsk, southeastern Ukraine, and attempted to retaliate. Clashes broke out in Bakhmut and Vuhledar in the area. However, Zaporizhzhia was the scene of the fiercest confrontation.
Speaking at a press conference with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on June 11, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky only “hinted” about the long-awaited counter-offensive campaign: “We are conducting a counter-offensive and defensive operation in Ukraine. However, I will not disclose at what stage they are.” On Twitter, Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov wrote: “Sometimes words are unnecessary/ They only cause harm,” implying that he did not elaborate on the counter-offensive campaign.
According to experts, it is understandable that the Ukrainian government did not announce the timing or plan of the counterattack. Keeping information about the timing and plan of the operation secret is necessary to create an element of surprise on the ground. Ukrainian officials have also repeatedly worried that the results of this counterattack campaign will not meet the expectations of the US and its allies, thereby causing military aid to gradually decrease. At that time, it was necessary for Kiev to lower Western expectations and seek "slow but sure" steps.
Hot every minute
Although Ukrainian officials do not admit it, in fact, the country's counter-offensive campaign has taken place, with fighting in Bakhmut, Vuhledar and Zaporizhzhia "hotter" since last weekend.
On June 12, President Volodymyr Zelensky said the VSU had taken control of seven villages in the southeast. Vladimir Rogov, a pro-Russian official in Eastern Zaporizhzhia, confirmed that Major General Sergei Goryachev, Chief of Staff of Russia's 35th Army, was killed in the Ukrainian attack.
However, Ukraine is also said to have suffered heavy losses. On June 13, the Russian Ministry of Defense released a video showing two German-made Leopard 2A6 tanks and two US Bradley infantry fighting vehicles captured by the Russian Armed Forces (VS RF). CNN (USA) noted that the VSU lost at least 16 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, while the Helsingin Sanomat (Finland) newspaper quoted experts as saying that Ukraine lost 3/6 Leopard tanks donated by Helsinki.
Most recently, on June 13, the Kiev government said that an attack targeting the city of Kryvyi Rih, the hometown of Mr. Volodymyr Zelensky in Dnipropetrovsk province in central Ukraine, killed at least 10 people.
Key for both
Ukraine's caution, Russia's defensive efforts, and the increasingly fierce fighting in recent days more or less reflect the special importance of this counter-offensive campaign, whether for Kiev or Moscow.
Ukraine's consistent goal over the past time has not changed, which is to end Russia's presence in Ukrainian territories along the 2014 border, including Donetsk, Lugansk, part of Kherson and Crimea.
This counter-offensive operation alone is not enough. However, it underscores Kiev’s commitment to its people to regain the territories currently under Moscow’s control. An effective operation contributes to affirming the combat capabilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (VSU) against the might of the VS RF.
In particular, as NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg mentioned in a conversation with US President Joe Biden on June 13 in Washington DC, the further the VSU goes, the more power Ukraine will have at the negotiating table.
However, the West is no less important to Ukraine. The US and its allies have provided Ukraine with unprecedented military aid packages worth tens of billions of dollars, including ammunition, Patriot air defense systems, Storm Shadow ballistic missiles, Bradley armored fighting vehicles, Leopard 2A6 tanks, MiG-29 fighter jets and soon F-16s.
However, this source of aid is not unlimited. In fact, the fact that the US and its allies devote a lot of resources to the defense industry has had a significant impact on the economic recovery after the Covid-19 pandemic and many consequences of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The skepticism is new and still only a minority, but it could grow if Ukraine does not achieve clear results in this counter-offensive campaign.
On the other side, however, Ukraine’s counteroffensive is no less important to Russia. The VS RF’s task is no longer to attack, but to consolidate its position, to block the VSU’s advance at key locations such as Bakhmut, Zaporizhzhia, or to ensure security in Crimea. As President Vladimir Putin said in April, the goal now is to push the Ukrainian army “as far as possible” from the regions that Russia annexed last year.
Therefore, if VS RF can secure control over these areas, this can be considered a success for Russia. From there, Moscow can gain an advantage over Kiev if peace talks take place soon. At the same time, a failed counter-offensive campaign will be the basis for Moscow to affirm that Russia has stood firm against Western pressure, creating conditions for Vladimir Putin to consolidate his reputation ahead of the 2024 presidential election.
For that reason, the above counter-offensive campaign plays an important, even pivotal role in the development and outcome of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in the coming time.
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