US Presidential Election: Fierce Race in Battleground States

Georgia is one of the most closely watched battleground states in this year's US presidential election, and there are still other unexpected variables that could impact the vote before the official election day on November 5.

Voters cast early ballots in Georgia (USA) on October 15 - Photo: AFP

This year’s US presidential election was full of surprises, such as the conviction and attempted assassination of Republican candidate Donald Trump, or incumbent President Joe Biden’s sudden withdrawal and handing over the responsibility to his vice president Kamala Harris. However, there are still unpredictable variables ahead, the latest of which is the record high number of early voters in the battleground state of Georgia on October 15 (local time).

Record in battleground state Georgia

On the first day of early voting, Georgia recorded 328,000 voters casting ballots in person or by mail - more than double the record 136,000 in 2020. CNN quoted some voters as saying that the voting process was smoother. "Last time, the lines were out the door and there seemed to be only three workers working. But this time it was easier," said voter Corine Canada. Experts say several new Georgia laws tightening regulations for mail-in voting and limiting drop boxes could sway more people to vote in person. The highlight in Georgia was the legal battle right before the election. On October 15, Fulton County Superior Court Judge Robert McBurney temporarily suspended a rule requiring election workers to count ballots by hand, criticizing Republican-led state election officials for introducing the rule so close to Election Day. McBurney is also considering legislation that would require an investigation before certifying the election results, which Democrats fear would cause chaos and delay the outcome. According to FiveThirtyEight, a candidate who wins Georgia will have the state’s 16 electoral votes, giving them a better chance of winning the election overall. In recent Georgia races, high turnout has been a good sign for Democrats. In 2020, Biden became the first Democratic candidate since Bill Clinton in 1992 to win the state by just 12,000 votes. But Republicans are also urging voters to vote early, as it’s too early to tell the final outcome.

Unexpected variables

However, the storms that hit the US last month and devastated many states in the southeastern US, including Georgia and North Carolina, have created a "political storm" when hurricane relief policies were politicized. While Mr. Trump criticized the way the Biden administration responded to the storm, Ms. Harris accused Mr. Trump of spreading misinformation. That's not to mention the problems with election infrastructure, upcoming polling stations and the story of post-storm reconstruction that could take years. "Storms can shake the election" - Politico commented, saying that the votes in the battleground states will be very close. In the past, major storms such as Sandy (2012) and Charley (2004) are also believed to have had an impact on the victories of Presidents Barack Obama and George W. Bush. In this year's election, billionaires also played an important role in the campaigns of the two candidates. Recently, statistics show that the richest man on the planet, billionaire Elon Musk, has poured about 75 million USD into Mr. Trump's campaign in the past three months. In total, three billionaires Elon Musk, Miriam Adelson and Richard Uihlein have donated about 220 million USD to groups supporting Mr. Trump. Meanwhile, Ms. Harris has also received 1 billion USD in support since joining the race in July 2024. According to Forbes magazine, the Democratic candidate has the support of 76 billionaires such as Jeff Bezos, Bill Gates, Warren Buffett...

Source: (NYT, WSJ, Forbes) - Data: TRAN PHUONG - Graphics: TUAN ANH

Which states have early voting in the US?

Most states in the US (more than 45) held early voting either in person or by mail before the official election on November 5. Today, 97% of US voters have at least one early voting option, compared to just 40% in 2000. Alabama was the first state to send ballots by mail on September 11, and Minnesota, South Dakota, and Virginia began early voting on September 20. This week, 10 states – Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Rhode Island, Tennessee, North Carolina, Louisiana, Washington, Massachusetts, and Nevada – opened early voting. Military and overseas ballots must be mailed 45 days before Election Day, so they were mailed on September 21.

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