New developments make the situation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict more unpredictable.
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| Ukrainian forces during military operations in Malaya Loknya, Kursk region, Russia on August 20. (Source: Ukrainian Army/Reuters) |
Hot both on the ground and in the media
On August 6, despite difficulties on the eastern front, Ukraine mobilized about 11,000 elite troops and many new weapons aided by the West, launching the largest attack since the conflict broke out, into the Russian border province of Kursk.
The Kursk campaign is a “multi-targeted arrow”, forcing Russia to disperse its response, reducing Moscow’s offensive pressure in Eastern Ukraine; demonstrating its strength to the US and the West; reassuring the military and people; causing confusion in Russian society; occupying the nuclear power plant in Kurchatov city as a “card” to create pressure and an advantage when negotiating…
After 2 weeks of attacks, it seems that Ukraine has not had much difficulty advancing about 40-50 km, occupying more than 1,000 km2 of Russian territory, causing many difficulties and losses for Moscow. Russia has concentrated its forces and weapons in Kursk, recapturing some areas, but up to now has not been able to turn the situation around.
The media war was equally fierce, with many controversies about the intentions, goals and results of the two opponents. Public opinion was somewhat surprised by the developments on the battlefield, believing that Ukraine had achieved some of its goals. On the contrary, many experts considered Kiev too risky, because it was harder to capture than to keep, and it exposed its forces, far from its logistical and technical support bases, with a high risk of being surrounded and destroyed. In particular, it could provoke Russia to retaliate with many types of modern weapons.
Public opinion is also divided when assessing Russia. Some believe that Moscow was passive, surprised, failed in intelligence, exposed its border defense limitations, lost both military forces and power and prestige... Others say that Russia proactively "set traps" to strike a decisive blow! Up to this point, the second type of opinion is not really convincing.
The US and the West are happy that the modern weapons aid is effective, causing Russia to face difficulties, forcing it to focus on defense efforts, restore occupied areas, and not easily expand attacks into Ukrainian territory, which could bog down on the battlefield.
The Kremlin has accused the US and the West of being behind Ukraine's offensive and vowed to make them pay the consequences. It is unclear how Moscow will respond. That has also worried Washington and some Western leaders, who have expressed their disapproval of Kiev's use of long-range missiles, which it has received aid, to attack targets deep inside Russian territory.
Conspiracy theories and information warfare make it difficult to objectively and comprehensively assess the strategic intentions, results, and losses of both sides and to predict future developments. Some argue that the current situation will lead to a sudden change, a turning point, leaning towards one side or the other.
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| Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chechen Republic leader Ramzan Kadyrov look at weapons believed to have been captured during Russia's military operation, in Gudermes on August 20. (Source: Reuters) |
Scenarios - possible and impossible
After Russia’s slow but steady gains over the first 7 months of 2024, the current battlefield situation has become more unpredictable. Several scenarios are possible:
First , the two sides are in a stalemate. Ukraine is holding out on the Eastern front, continuing to attack some targets deep inside Russia, and determined to hold the newly captured areas, at least until the US presidential election in November 2024.
Russia continues to attack Ukrainian territory and counterattack to restore the captured areas in Kursk, but up to this point has not created any significant breakthroughs.
This is understandable. Behind Ukraine is the support, assistance, and involvement of the US and the West in terms of finance, weapons, military experts, and intelligence from space and the air. Along with that are economic sanctions and political and diplomatic isolation of Russia.
Second, Ukraine occupies and controls most of Kursk province, continues to launch fire attacks on targets deep inside Russian territory and basically maintains a defensive position in the East, forcing Russia to accept negotiations and exchanges between Kursk and the newly occupied area in Eastern Ukraine. This scenario is very unlikely to happen.
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| A drone view shows what Ukrainian forces said were missile strikes on Russian troops in Novozhelanne in the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine on August 21. (Source: Reuters TV) |
Third, Russia concentrated its forces, with many types of modern weapons, capable of high damage, causing heavy losses, creating a sudden battlefield situation, forcing Ukraine to fall into a disadvantageous position, having to accept Moscow's conditions.
Russia can attack in three ways. First, using strong air strikes on many targets in Ukrainian provinces and cities and land attacks in Donetsk, expanding the occupied areas in eastern Ukraine as the main front; blocking, restraining, encircling, and destroying the enemy in Kursk as the coordinated front.
Second, continue to attack by air and land into Ukrainian territory to coordinate with the main front, encircle and destroy a large number of Ukrainian forces in Kursk. Third, launch a large-scale attack simultaneously on both fronts, creating a sudden situation, forcing Ukraine into a passive position, suffering heavy losses, and being forced to accept defeat. Belarus's strengthening of its defense forces not only protects the border but also forces Ukraine to pay more attention to the new move in the North.
Many experts vote for scenario three. But in the current situation, the Kremlin will find it difficult to concentrate enough forces to launch a major offensive, simultaneously on two fronts, and ensure defense across its entire territory.
It is not excluded that Russia could deploy strategic, operational and tactical nuclear weapons to deter the West from further involvement and Ukraine from taking reckless, desperate actions. However, the use of nuclear weapons, regardless of the level, is a last resort. Because then, the conflict could erupt, spiral out of control, causing catastrophic consequences for all parties, the region and the world.
Fourth, both sides agree to negotiate a ceasefire. If the stalemate continues, both sides encounter many difficulties, or the second or third scenario occurs, along with mediation efforts by some countries, it could lead to the conflict ending through negotiations. This is the most likely scenario.
There are many different scenarios, so the form, conditions, time and results of negotiations are also different. In which, the side with the advantage on the battlefield will have the advantage at the negotiating table. However, the ability and outcome of negotiations also depend on the strategic intentions and level of involvement of the US and the West. Depending on the situation, Russia will also set conditions for the US and the West. Therefore, the developments and outcomes will be difficult to predict. Let's wait and see.
Source: https://baoquocte.vn/xung-dot-nga-ukraine-va-du-bao-ve-dot-bien-mang-tinh-buoc-ngoat-283538.html
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