Can the new US president cause Vietnamese pangasius prices to increase or decrease?

Donald Trump’s second official return to the White House could have many important impacts on Vietnam, especially its major export, pangasius. His economic policies, such as increasing import tariffs, reducing corporate income taxes, and attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) to the US, are expected to have a direct impact on many industries and sectors in Vietnam.

Pangasius is one of the five main export products to the US market.

During the 2019-2023 period, Vietnamese seafood, especially pangasius, has affirmed its position as one of the five main export items to the US market, after industrial products such as electronic equipment and textiles. It is worth noting that the US is not only a large consumer market but also one of Vietnam's leading pangasius import partners. Therefore, changes in the US administration and new policy directions will certainly have a profound impact on the export activities of Vietnamese enterprises.

Vietnamese seafood products are always popular in this market. Every year, Vietnamese seafood exports reach 10 billion USD, of which the US alone brings in about 1.4-1.5 billion USD. A typical example is Vietnamese pangasius products, as the US is the second largest importer of Vietnamese products in the world, after China. In 2022 and 2023, Vietnamese pangasius exports will reach more than 2.4 billion USD and more than 1.8 billion USD, respectively. Of which, the export value to the US will reach 527 million USD, accounting for 22% of the proportion, and 271 million USD, accounting for 15% of the proportion.

In addition, the latest data from the International Trade Center (ITC) shows that from February 2024 to August 2024, frozen pangasius fillets surpassed frozen tilapia fillets to become the most consumed whitefish product in the US. Clearly, Americans still have a demand for Vietnamese pangasius.

Previously, according to the preliminary conclusion of POR 20, the two defendant enterprises were required to receive an anti-dumping tax rate of 0.00 USD/kg. The remaining 06 enterprises were all eligible to receive separate tax rates of 0.00 USD/kg. The above preliminary results were quite positive for Vietnamese pangasius exporting enterprises when all 8 companies in the review received a tax rate of 0.00 USD/kg. The above tax rate has decreased compared to the official tax rate of the previous POR19 review, which was from 0.00 USD/kg to 0.18 USD/kg.

Vietnam’s pangasius export industry will be affected by the Trump administration’s policies in two ways. With the motto “America first”, the policy of increasing import tax to 10-20% for all countries, including Vietnam, will reduce the competitiveness of Vietnamese goods compared to domestic US goods. In addition, the case of China being taxed high will create a gap, thereby creating opportunities for Vietnamese enterprises to export to the US and gain market share.

According to Vietnam Customs, in the first half of October 2024, Vietnam's pangasius exports to the US reached 19 million USD, up 89% over the same period last year. Cumulative pangasius exports to this market as of October 15, 2024 reached 275 million USD, up 27% over the same period in 2023.

In the first nine months of this year, frozen fillets with HS code 0304 were still the main pangasius product imported by the US from Vietnam with 245 million USD, up 21% over the same period last year, accounting for 96% of the proportion.

No longer declining as in the previous quarter, in the third quarter of 2024, exports of dried pangasius products and other frozen products (whole, cut, bladder, etc.) to the US recorded positive growth again, with a value of more than 1.3 million USD, an increase of 76% over the same period last year. Exports of these products reached more than 3.2 million USD in the first 9 months of 2024, an increase of 3% over the same period and accounting for 1% of the proportion.

Notably, in the first 9 months of this year, value-added pangasius exports to the US continued to record impressive growth, with a value of nearly 8 million USD, an increase of 1,666% over the same period last year, accounting for 3% of the total export of pangasius products to the US.

Source: https://thoibaonganhang.vn/tong-thong-moi-cua-my-co-the-khien-gia-ca-ca-viet-nam-tang-hay-giam-157680.html