“ Global government debt would have risen by about 2% to 93.2% of GDP by 2023. This would still be 9% higher than pre-pandemic levels ,” the IMF said.
According to the IMF, the countries leading the growth are the two largest economies - the US and China, where public debt increased by more than 2% and 6% of GDP respectively.
IMF forecasts that China's public debt will reach 88.6% of GDP this year, 101.8% of GDP in 2027 and 110.1% of GDP in 2029.
Meanwhile, the US national debt will reach 123.3% of GDP this year and increase to 133.9% of GDP in 2029.
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| Global public debt rises to 93.2% of GDP |
At the same time, the IMF also expects Russian government debt to rise to 20.8% of GDP in 2024 and to increase to 24% in 2029. Ukraine's national debt will reach 94% of GDP this year, 96.7% in 2025 and fall to 88.2% in 2029.
However, the IMF notes that by 2029, global public debt will reach 99% of GDP, driven by rising public debt in China and the United States, where under current policies, public debt will continue to rise, surpassing historic highs.
Previously, the IMF released an updated report on the world economic outlook, giving optimistic assessments of world economic growth this year.
Accordingly, not only in 2024, the IMF also optimistically assessed world economic growth in the following years, but this growth is uneven across countries and regions.
The IMF assessed that the world economy will basically continue to grow at 3.2% this year and in 2025. Developed economies will have better growth this year, from 1.6% in 2023, increasing to 1.7% in 2024 and 1.8% in 2025.
In contrast, emerging economies will see a slight slowdown, from 4.3% growth in 2023 to 4.2% in 2024 and 2025. China's economy will grow by 5.2% in 2023, 4.6% in 2024 and 4.1% in 2025.
Over the next five years, the world economy will grow at just 3.1%, the slowest pace in decades.
The US is on track to grow 2.7% this year, the IMF said, estimating US economic growth this year to be higher than the 2.5% growth achieved in 2023 and up 0.6% from the IMF's previous calculation.
However, the IMF also warned that although the US's recent economic performance has been "impressive" and is a key driver of global growth, it is partly due to a budget policy "inconsistent with long-term fiscal sustainability".
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