According to the World Bank's Chief Economist, the global economic outlook for 2025 remains uncertain, as the world economy faces "an unpredictable crossroads".
People shop at a supermarket in Linyi city, Shandong province, China.
According to the Asian Development Bank (ADB)'s updated report on economic growth in the Asia-Pacific region, the growth forecast for developing economies in Asia in both 2024 and 2025 has been revised down.
However, ADB raised Vietnam's growth forecast to 6.4% and 6.6%, respectively, from 6% and 6.2% previously. This forecast is similar to other international organizations such as the World Bank (WB), thereby recognizing Vietnam's efforts and determination to grow.
ADB said that strong trade activities, recovery in manufacturing and export processing, and fiscal support measures have boosted Vietnam's economy.
For the Asia-Pacific region, ADB has lowered its growth forecast for developing economies, from 5% to 4.9% in 2024 and from 4.9% to 4.8% in 2025. The main reasons are poor performance in some economies and weak consumption prospects.
In addition, the ADB warned that US trade, fiscal and migration policies under President Donald Trump could negatively impact growth and increase inflation in Asian countries. The bank also stressed that most of these impacts may only become apparent in the 2024-2025 forecast horizon.
Despite concerns about an uncertain global economic future, consumer confidence in the US is improving and the labor market remains strong. These factors are the basis for the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates for the third time in December 2024, bringing the interest rate to 4.25-4.5%. However, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that the agency will continue to be cautious about President-elect Trump's potential economic policies and will likely only have two interest rate cuts in 2025.
At the same time, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut its interest rate from 3.25% to 3%. The agency assessed that inflation in the Eurozone would stabilize around its 2% target, but did not commit to a specific policy path in 2025.
In December 2024, a notable event in the world's second largest economy was China's decision to return to a "reasonable easing" monetary policy for the first time in 14 years.
The decision, approved by the Politburo of the Communist Party of China, signals a strong fiscal stimulus plan that could include a major interest rate cut and asset purchases by 2025. Chinese stocks surged following the news, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng index up 2.8%.
However, the political situation in South Korea could negatively affect the country's economy, after President Yoon Suk Yeol declared martial law on the night of December 3 and lifted it six hours later. According to forecasts, the South Korean economy will face many difficulties, including domestic political instability and tax barriers from the US, which could affect exports.
The results of the “2025 Corporate Management Outlook Survey” conducted by the Korea Enterprise Federation (KEF) and announced in December 2024 showed that the general trend in 2025 is that businesses in this country will “tighten their belts”.
Meanwhile, the tourism industry - which is expected to contribute 3.8% of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) in 2023 - is also facing concerns about potential impacts from the domestic political situation, as it has seen many foreign tourists cancel their visits to Seoul and shorten their stays.
In Europe, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has lowered its economic growth forecast for Germany and France, as domestic political crises and weakening global demand affect the growth prospects of the two economic powerhouses of the European Union (EU).
The French central bank also revised down its 2025 growth forecast from 1.2% to 0.9%, after France's credit rating was downgraded from Aa2 to Aa3 by Moody's, due to political and budgetary uncertainty.
Despite continuing to face many difficulties, according to Mr. Andrea Coppola - Chief Economist and Manager of the Equitable Growth, Finance, and Institutions Program of the World Bank (WB) in Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia - the global economy has stabilized in 2024 with an estimated growth rate of 2.7%. However, the outlook for 2025 is still uncertain, as the world economy faces "an unpredictable crossroads", with many political and trade fluctuations./.
According to VNA
Source: https://baobinhduong.vn/kinh-te-the-gioi-nam-2025-duoc-du-bao-tiep-tuc-co-nhieu-thach-thuc-a338859.html
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