According to a recent survey by Batdongsan.com.vn, in the third quarter of 2023, secondary market liquidity has shown signs of a slight increase, with investors starting to invest in projects with high discounts, full legal status, locations near densely populated residential areas, and convenient transportation to the central area. In addition, the demand for real estate across the country has increased by 6%.
According to a survey by Batdongsan.com.vn, this upward trend occurred in all types of real estate, including apartments, land, private houses, and townhouses. In particular, apartments, villas, and land recorded a 6-7% increase in demand. In addition to the increase in demand, real estate prices in July and August 2023 also recorded stability. The number of ads for sale at a loss decreased sharply compared to the beginning of the year.
Analyzing the developments of the real estate market, many experts believe that, according to the general law of the real estate market, when the bottom is reached, sooner or later the market will recover. At this time, the market is starting to go through the bottom. However, the new growth cycle of the real estate market will not follow a V-shaped chart but will recover and grow according to a U-shaped chart.
It is forecasted that in the fourth quarter of 2023, the real estate market will not have a sudden growth, but will certainly have better growth than the same period. With a lot of information and positive changes since the end of the third quarter, it is completely reasonable to predict that the real estate market will gradually warm up from the end of the fourth quarter of 2023, and at the same time, gradually recover more clearly from the second quarter of 2024.
Mr. Vo Hong Thang - Director of Consulting and Project Development Services, DKRA Group, commented that observing the market in the first quarter of 2023, cash flow from some "bottom-fishing" investors has begun to appear. The real estate market in general is likely to have positive changes by the end of the fourth quarter of 2023 or at the latest in the first half of 2024 thanks to factors such as real estate loan interest rates are decreasing and the trend continues to decrease in the near future.
At the same time, public investment disbursement increased sharply, in which many major key transport infrastructure projects nationwide were vigorously implemented such as Bien Hoa - Vung Tau expressway, Ring Road 3 in Ho Chi Minh City and the southern provinces.... Domestic macroeconomic growth is quite stable, although GDP growth is not strong - in the second quarter of 2023, it increased by 4.14%, but it is still at an acceptable level in the current conditions of the world economy facing many challenges, inflation maintained below 4%.
According to Mr. Thang, the real estate price level has had significant adjustments in recent times, so buyers with the need to settle down or invest in accumulating assets can consider finding a house that suits their financial conditions. The current time is a "golden opportunity" for buyers with investment purposes as the market gradually shows clear signs of "bottoming out". In the coming time, the real estate market is likely to have a certain recovery in some segments.
According to Mr. Nguyen Van Dinh - Chairman of the Vietnam Real Estate Brokerage Association, lending interest rates are on the decline, applicable to both new and old loans, which will help reduce financial pressure for investors who are currently holding on to their real estate. If interest rates are adjusted down by another 1.5-2%, the situation of price reduction and reckless selling like in the recession period, especially in the land segment, will end.
"The fact that interest rates are adjusted to the current low level also causes investment cash flow to leave banks and return to more attractive investment channels, including real estate. Once the demand for real estate increases, the downward trend will also stop. The real estate market at the end of 2023 is forecasted to not recover immediately, but will escape the gloomy situation as before," Mr. Dinh commented.
Mr. Su Ngoc Khuong - Senior Director of Savills Vietnam said that if the Land Law 2023 is applied on schedule, it will take effect in the second half of next year, thereby solving bottlenecks in project approval in new residential areas, helping housing supply recover in the period 2024 - 2025. It is forecasted that in the next 12 months, real estate will begin to receive positive changes because new policies will begin to have an effect on the market after a while.
Sharing the same view, Mr. Nguyen Quoc Anh - Deputy General Director of Batdongsan.com.vn also expects that the Land Law (amended), Housing Law, and Real Estate Business Law will soon be passed by the National Assembly and come into effect, which will create a foundation and promote the real estate market nationwide to recover and develop again in the coming time.
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