Market continues to face downward pressure ahead of harvest season

Domestic coffee prices were updated at 4:30 a.m. on October 22, 2024 as follows, according to www.giacaphe.com, domestic coffee prices today increased slightly by 100 VND/kg, ranging from 111,200-111,800 VND/kg. Currently, the average purchase price in the Central Highlands provinces is 111,400 VND/kg, the highest purchase price in Dak Nong province is 111,800 VND/kg.

Specifically, the coffee purchase price in Gia Lai province (Chu Prong) is 111,600 VND, stable compared to yesterday, in Pleiku and La Grai the price is 111,500 VND/kg; In Kon Tum province, the price is 111,600 VND/kg, unchanged compared to yesterday; In Dak Nong province, coffee is purchased at the highest price of 111,800 VND/kg, an increase of 100 VND/kg compared to yesterday.

The price of green coffee beans (coffee beans, fresh coffee beans) in Lam Dong province in districts such as Bao Loc, Di Linh, Lam Ha, coffee is purchased at 111,200 VND/kg, an increase of 100 VND/kg compared to yesterday.

Coffee prices today (October 22) in Dak Lak province; in Cu M'gar district, coffee is purchased at about 111,600 VND/kg, an increase of 100 VND/kg, and in Ea H'leo district, Buon Ho town, it is purchased at the same price of 111,500 VND/kg.

Coffee prices today October 22, 2024: The market continues to be under downward pressure before the peak harvest

World coffee prices in the early morning of October 22, 2024, at 4:30 am, were updated on the Vietnam Commodity Exchange MXV (the only channel in Vietnam that continuously updates and links to exchanges around the world).

Today's online coffee prices of the three main coffee futures exchanges ICE Futures Europe, ICE Futures US and B3 Brazil are continuously updated by Y5Cafe during the trading hours of the exchange, updated by www.giacaphe.com as follows:

Coffee price today October 22, 2024: Robusta coffee price on London floor. (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com

At the end of the trading session, the price of Robusta coffee on the London floor on October 22, 2024 at 4:30 a.m. decreased to 4,324 - 4,577 USD/ton. Specifically, the delivery period for November 2024 was 4,577 USD/ton (down 125 USD/ton); the delivery period for January 2025 was 4,503 USD/ton (down 112 USD/ton); the delivery period for March 2025 was 4,405 USD/ton (down 107 USD/ton) and the delivery period for May 2025 was 4,324 USD/ton (down 106 USD/ton).

Arabica coffee prices on the New York floor on October 22, 2024. (Photo: Screenshot of giacaphe.com)

On the contrary, the price of Arabica coffee on the New York floor on the morning of October 22, 2024 decreased, from 245.35 to 251.70 cents/lb. Specifically, the delivery period for December 2024 is 251.70 cents/lb (down 2.18%); the delivery period for March 2025 is 250.45 cents/lb (down 2.17%); the delivery period for May 2025 is 248.55 cents/lb (down 2.16%) and the delivery period for July 2025 is 245.35 cents/lb (down 2.17%).

Brazilian Arabica coffee price on October 22, 2024. (Photo: Screenshot of giacaphe.com)

Brazilian Arabica coffee prices fluctuated in opposite directions on the morning of October 22, 2024. Specifically, the delivery period for December 2024 was 303.75 USD/ton (up 0.90%); the delivery period for March 2025 was 304.10 USD/ton (up 0.81%); the delivery period for May 2025 was 304.60 USD/ton (down 2.34%) and the delivery period for July 2025 was 300.25 USD/ton (down 2.34%).

Robusta coffee traded on the ICE Futures Europe (London exchange) opens at 16:00 and closes at 00:30 (next day), Vietnam time.

Arabica coffee on the ICE Futures US floor (New York floor) opens at 16:15 and closes at 01:30 (next day), Vietnam time.

For Arabica coffee traded on the B3 Brazil floor, it will be open from 19:00 – 02:35 (next day), Vietnam time.

Coffee prices have fallen sharply in recent days due to the fact that supply is no longer as scarce as before. According to the International Coffee Organization (ICO), the 2023/24 crop year is expected to reach 178 million bags of coffee (60kg), up 5.8% compared to the previous crop year. Of which, Arabica output will increase by 8.8% and Robusta by 2.1%, helping to stabilize global supply.

Although coffee prices have cooled down, domestic coffee prices are still 80% higher than they were a year ago. At the same time, many forecasts show that prices will remain high in the 2024/25 crop year due to reduced production.

October is the time when the world’s largest robusta coffee producer – Vietnam – begins harvesting its new coffee crop, which is calculated from October 2024 to September 2025. Farmers will be hoping for rain to stop around this time to facilitate harvesting, however, there are many weather reports from Vietnam saying that continuous rain will come to the Central Highlands this weekend and into the new week.

Fundamentals are also helping to keep coffee prices in check, with news that limited rains are forecast for Brazil next week, a crucial time as coffee plants need water to flower in the main coffee-growing state of Minas Gerais.

In the short term, the market is unlikely to return to the historical level of September, but due to high demand for coffee and low supply, experts expect prices to be unlikely to fall below $4,500/ton.

In recent weeks, domestic green coffee prices have fallen from VND120,000/kg to around VND110,000/kg, just before the coffee growing regions in the Central Highlands enter the year-end harvest. The VND120,000/kg price, which had been stable for the previous few months, has now dropped continuously over the past three weeks.

Nguyen Nam Hai, chairman of the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (VICOFA), said this phenomenon usually occurs before the coffee harvest season begins. Another important factor contributing to the decline in coffee prices is the European Union’s decision to suspend anti-deforestation regulations in agricultural production, including coffee, for another 12 months, reducing supply pressure.

However, Vietnam's coffee output this year is expected to decrease slightly by about 10% due to the impact of heat and drought in some growing areas in the Central Highlands, causing productivity to decrease compared to previous years.