The number of people in Japan's workforce aged 15 and over hit a record high for the second consecutive year, according to the Internal Affairs Ministry's Labor Force Survey released on January 31.
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| The number of people in Japan's workforce aged 15 and over hit a record high for the second consecutive year, according to a survey by the Internal Affairs Ministry. (Source: Kyodo) |
The official documentation began in 1953 and defines the labor force as the total number of people who are employed and those who are looking for work.
The record set in 2023 increased by 320,000 people, reaching a total of 69.57 million workers in 2024. Among these, the elderly, women, and non-Japanese residents are the three demographic groups with significant increases.
One private research firm even predicts the workforce will exceed 70 million by 2030. This number has been on an upward trend since a total of 65.65 million in 2012 and has remained above 69 million since 2019.
In June 2024, the labor force reached 70.03 million, exceeding 70 million for the first time, and reached a total of 67.81 million in 2024, also a record high.
Although low birth rates mean the working-age group of 15 to 64 has shrunk, last year saw more women and older people joining the workforce.
In 2024, the workforce aged 65 and over will reach 9.46 million, 1.9 times the figure in 2000. About 26.1%, or one in four people, in this demographic group will be available for work.
In addition, the number of women in the workforce is 31.57 million, an increase of about 4 million compared to 2000. The "M-shaped curve" problem reflecting women in their 30s and 40s leaving work due to marriage or child-rearing responsibilities has improved.
Research and consulting firm Persol estimates the workforce will reach around 71 million by 2030 and 72 million by 2035. “The big factor behind this increase will be the elderly,” said Ryota Nakamata, an expert at the institute. “The proportion of people aged 60 to 64 who want to continue working after 65 is around 70%, and the proportion of people aged 65 to 69 who want to continue working after 70 is about the same.”
“If these people continue to work as desired, we can expect the workforce to increase further,” said Nakamata.
On the other hand, an estimate released by the Japan Institute for Labor Policy and Training in March 2024 shows that the workforce will be 65.56 million in 2030 and 60.02 million in 2040. If the country's economy grows and the workforce increases, the workforce is forecast to be 69.4 million in 2030 and fall to 67.91 million in 2040—a very different outlook than the forecast by research and consulting firm Persol.
Regardless, even if the number of older men and women working continues to increase, that does not necessarily mean that labor input—the number of hours worked—will also increase. Older people often choose to work shorter hours.
Research and consulting firm Persol predicts that the number of hours worked per employee over the course of a year will fall from 1,850 hours in 2023 to 1,687 hours in 2035.
The company also estimates a shortage of 17.75 million hours per day, equivalent to 3.84 million workers.
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