Ahead of the NATO summit, the alliance is sprinting to admit Sweden, but has faced many obstacles from Turkey.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said on June 26 that he would convene an emergency meeting in the coming days to try to persuade Türkiye to agree to let Sweden join the alliance.
According to NATO's regulations, the decision to admit any new country must be approved by consensus of all members.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg speaks during a news conference in Berlin, Germany, last January. Photo: Reuters
This is considered the last attempt to help Sweden become a NATO member before the alliance's summit in July. Stockholm had high hopes that this would be an important milestone for them to be admitted to NATO, after many obstacles from Türkiye.
Stoltenberg said he had held new talks on Sweden's accession with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as well as senior officials from Sweden and neighbouring Finland, which became the world's 31st member of the world's largest security organisation in April.
“We have agreed to convene a high-level meeting in Brussels, Belgium, before the summit” in the Lithuanian capital Vilnius, starting on July 11, he said. “The aim is to make progress in the effort to bring Sweden into NATO.”
He did not disclose the time of the new talks, but noted that the foreign ministers, intelligence chiefs and national security advisers of the countries involved would attend.
Sweden and Finland abandoned their non-aligned stance to apply to join NATO last year, after Russia launched its campaign in Ukraine.
In addition to Türkiye, Hungary is also holding back on Sweden’s membership, but has not made clear what its concerns are. NATO officials hope that if they can convince Türkiye, Hungary will also agree.
Despite accepting Finland's membership in NATO, Türkiye has so far refused to approve Sweden's membership because the Nordic country has not met its requirements, mainly related to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), a militia Ankara considers "terrorist".
Ankara also accused the Swedish government of complicity in far-right protests, where people burned copies of the Koran outside the Turkish embassy in Stockholm.
Most recently, Turkey said it wanted Sweden to take action after accusing its lawmakers of projecting a PKK flag onto the Stockholm parliament building to protest President Erdogan's re-election in late May. A Swedish parliamentary spokesman acknowledged that someone had projected images onto the side of the building, but there was no concrete evidence of what they projected or who was responsible, Reuters reported.
In addition, many experts believe that another reason why Turkey prevented Sweden from joining NATO was to avoid offending Russian President Vladimir Putin. Shortly before his re-election, President Erdogan told CNN that he and the Kremlin leader had a "special relationship".
According to experts, the task of convincing Türkiye is clearly a challenge for Secretary General Stoltenberg and the longer the admission process takes, the greater its consequences will be.
Jacob Westberg, associate professor of War Studies at the Swedish National Defense University, notes that “non-member states cannot fully participate in NATO defense planning.” This is detrimental to both NATO itself and Sweden, despite the two sides having a long history of defense cooperation.
For example, if NATO wanted to quickly deploy military assets to the Baltic states and Finland, east of the Baltic Sea, "it would be very helpful if they could operate on Swedish territory," he said.
Westberg added that the delay would also mean NATO would not be able to take advantage of Sweden's military assets, such as its Baltic submarine fleet and its advanced JAS Gripen fighter jets.
Analysts have long pointed to Sweden's geostrategic importance in the event of a conflict in northern Europe, with the island of Gotland sometimes described as an "unsinkable aircraft carrier" in the Baltic.
In addition to planning for worst-case scenarios, Anna Wieslander, director for Northern Europe at the Atlantic Council, said disagreements over Sweden's accession could expose cracks in the alliance.
“If NATO fails to admit Sweden, it will look significantly weaker,” she said. Prolonged internal divisions could affect NATO’s efforts to aid Ukraine, she added.
“What has been the alliance's greatest strength during the Ukraine crisis is that its members have been able to move forward together and remain united,” Wieslander stressed.
NATO and Swedish officials now fear that missing the July 11 deadline, the start of the alliance's summit in Vilnius, would send a dangerous message to rivals, including Russia.
"If we miss the deadline, it will be understood by people like President Putin that there are weak links in the Western alliance," said a NATO diplomat.
A delay in admitting Sweden would also create “a sense of power and influence that President Erdogan has over the alliance,” said an Eastern European diplomat.
NATO officials believe a deal could be agreed before July, but it would certainly come at a price.
Many recall how President Erdogan struck a deal with the European Union (EU), under which the EU would give Türkiye $6.4 billion and other privileges in exchange for Ankara taking in Syrian refugees on their way to Europe.
Turkey is seeking congressional approval to purchase US-made F-16 fighter jets, according to CNN senior political analyst Luke McGee. US officials have been tight-lipped about the issue, but behind the scenes, they say it is certainly a deal worth considering.
Diplomats are also well aware that the Turkish economy is in dire straits, with soaring inflation and a falling currency. On the other hand, both the US and the EU are imposing sanctions on Turkey.
Location of NATO countries and countries that want to join. Graphics: Tien Thanh
While a deal is likely and members who support Sweden joining the alliance have their own leverage, the risk of NATO missing the deadline remains high.
"The problem lies in the unpredictable nature of President Erdogan. The election in late May was the last time his power was threatened and observers are concerned that he will now double down on the pressure on Sweden over Ankara's demands regarding the PKK," McGee noted.
Vu Hoang (According to AFP, Foreign Policy, AP )
Source link
Comment (0)