Expectations for Vietnam's economic ship in 2024

According to Minister of Planning and Investment Nguyen Chi Dung, in the first month of 2024, the macro economy was stable, inflation was controlled, and major balances were ensured. The consumer price index (CPI) in January increased by 3.37% over the same period, and commodity prices were relatively stable.

The monetary market and exchange rate are basically stable, interest rates continue to decrease; payment needs and cash supply for the economy during Tet are fully met; the safety of the banking system is guaranteed.

State budget revenue in January is estimated to reach 13.6% of the estimate. Import-export turnover, export and import in January increased by 37.7%, 42% and 33.3% respectively over the same period and increased by 5.5%, 6.7%, 4.2% compared to the previous month, showing a positive recovery trend each month; estimated trade surplus of 2.92 billion USD.

Another bright spot in the economy in the first month of the year is that total registered FDI capital increased sharply by 40.2% over the same period in 2023, reaching more than 2.36 billion USD. This is a signal that our country is taking advantage of opportunities from foreign affairs and diplomatic achievements in 2023 and the first month of 2024.

Vietnam's economy in the first month of 2024 has many bright spots. (Illustration photo)

Responding to VTC News , economic expert Tran Hoang Ngan assessed that 2024 will be a year of acceleration and breakthrough, of special significance in successfully implementing the 5-year Socio-Economic Development Plan 2021 - 2025.

According to Mr. Ngan, besides industry being a bright spot, agriculture is still a solid foundation for Vietnam's economy next year. "We need to take care of 100 million people and have a surplus of food for export. Our market is very large and Vietnam is still one of the leading exporters of agricultural products to the world," Mr. Ngan said.

Another internal force that can be further promoted to stimulate Vietnam's economic development is tourism. This is a key economic sector but investment has been modest in recent times. Currently, the domestic tourism market has recovered compared to before the COVID-19 pandemic, but the international tourism market is still low, reaching only more than 70%.

"Developing the tourism market is a strength because Vietnam has golden forests, silver seas, many beautiful landscapes and cultural and historical relics," Mr. Ngan stated his opinion.

According to Mr. Ngan, when agriculture and tourism develop, it will help Vietnam's economy develop sustainably, in the context of many fluctuations in the world.

Associate Professor, Dr. Pham Thi Hong Yen, Standing Member of the National Assembly's Economic Committee, expects two factors to promote strong economic development.

Firstly, investment capital flows into new areas such as circular economy, green economy, climate change adaptation, sustainable production and consumption. “ When domestic and foreign enterprises shift their investment to these areas, it will certainly create growth momentum for the economy in 2024-2025 ,” Ms. Yen predicted.

Second, the disbursement of public investment capital, bringing large amounts of capital into the economy according to the direction of the National Assembly and the Government. " The disbursement of public investment capital in parallel with the development of projects will certainly be one of the main factors promoting economic growth, " said Ms. Yen.

Mr. Tran Van Lam, member of the National Assembly's Finance and Budget Committee, emphasized the achievements of 2023 and said that this is the basis and leverage to boost the economy.

Although in theory the economic growth target was not achieved (6.5 - 7%), in the context of an unstable and volatile world economy, the stability of the macro economy, low inflation, public debt still ensuring safety, and a deficit lower than planned are great achievements of the Vietnamese economy.

With the current growth momentum of higher month-on-month and better quarter-on-quarter, Mr. Lam affirmed that the above achievements will continue to shine in 2024.

The number of newly established enterprises in January 2024 increased in both quantity and registered capital compared to the same period, up 24.8% in the number of enterprises, up 52.8% in registered capital and up 50.8% in the number of employees. (Illustration photo)

6 groups of urgent solutions

Dr. Can Van Luc, Chief Economist of BIDV Bank, Member of the National Financial and Monetary Policy Advisory Council, presented 6 main groups of solutions for Vietnam's economy to continue growing in 2024.

First, we must be more determined in improving the investment and business environment, especially in relation to public service performance.

Promote the recovery of traditional growth drivers along with better leveraging new growth drivers. In particular, it is necessary to better exploit signed FTAs, opportunities gained from upgrading strategic partnerships recently; develop digital economy and green economy in a methodical, substantive and strategic manner.

Ensuring macroeconomic stability in the context of many external and internal risks and challenges; not being subjective with energy security, food security, proactively adapting to climate change...

Pay more attention to the process of restructuring the economy; especially weak enterprises and credit institutions. If this process is not resolutely resolved and accelerated, it will cause congestion, ineffective resource allocation and high costs.

Accelerate and perfect economic institutions, especially those for new growth drivers such as digital economy, green economy, circular economy, and energy transition; better implement planning and implement issued plans.

Finally, to achieve the above, improving the quality of growth is both the goal and the foundation. Accordingly, the task of increasing labor productivity associated with strong reform of administrative procedures, application of science and technology, reform of recruitment - evaluation of cadres - salary of civil servants is urgent.

PHAM DUY

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