Pork imports tend to increase again from May 2024 to present

The price of live pigs is stable at 60,000 - 70,000 VND/kg, the domestic pork supply is not high, causing pork imports to increase again from May 2024 to present.

Brazil is the largest market supplying pork to Vietnam.

According to preliminary statistics from the General Department of Vietnam Customs, in the third quarter of 2024, Vietnam imported 221,160 tons of meat and meat products, worth 473.31 million USD, up 2.5% in volume and 14.7% in value compared to the second quarter of 2024; compared to the third quarter of 2023, it increased by 4.2% in volume but decreased by 0.8% in value.

Pork imports tend to increase again from May 2024 until now

In the third quarter of 2024, India, the United States, Russia, Poland, Australia, South Korea and Brazil were the largest markets supplying meat and meat products to Vietnam. Imports from India, Australia, South Korea and the United States increased (of which the strongest increase was from the Australian market with an increase of 38.3% compared to the second quarter of 2024), while other markets decreased. Compared to the third quarter of 2023, imports from the United States and Poland increased sharply, while other markets decreased.

In the third quarter of 2024, imported meat and meat products are mainly of the following types: Meat and edible by-products of poultry; fresh frozen buffalo meat; edible by-products of live pigs, buffaloes and cows; fresh chilled or frozen pork; fresh chilled or frozen beef...

Of which, the import volume of fresh chilled or frozen beef; meat and edible by-products of poultry; edible by-products of pigs, buffaloes and cows increased compared to the same period in 2023; while the import volume of fresh chilled or frozen buffalo meat and fresh chilled or frozen pork decreased compared to the same period in 2023.

In the third quarter of 2024, Vietnam imported 32,010 tons of pork (HS 0203), worth 72.51 million USD, up 17% in volume and 18% in value compared to the second quarter of 2024; but compared to the third quarter of 2023, it decreased 32.4% in volume and 39% in value.

Pork imports have tended to increase again since May 2024 until now, Brazil, Russia, Canada, Germany and the Netherlands are the major pork suppliers to Vietnam in the third quarter of 2024. Of which, Brazil is the largest pork supplier to Vietnam with a volume of 11.8 thousand tons, worth 28.04 million USD, up 9.6% in volume and 16.9% in value compared to the second quarter of 2024; but compared to the third quarter of 2023, it decreased by 43% in volume and 45.6% in value.

In October 2024, the price of live pigs in provinces and cities fluctuated between 61,000 - 69,000 VND/kg. Specifically, the price of live pigs in the Northern region fluctuated between 63,000 - 69,000 VND/kg, in the first days of the month the price increased by 1,000 - 2,000 VND/kg, stabilized in the middle of the month, then decreased by 1,000 - 6,000 VND/kg, then increased by 6,000 VND/kg, and decreased by 6,000 - 7,000 VND/kg near the end of the month compared to the end of the previous month.

In the Central and Central Highlands regions, the price of live pigs fluctuated between 61,000 - 68,000 VND/kg. In the first days of the month, the price of live pigs increased by 3,000 VND/kg, stabilized in the middle of the month, then decreased by 1,000 - 3,000 VND/kg, then increased by 4,000 VND/kg, and decreased by 7,000 VND/kg near the end of the month compared to the end of the previous month.

In the Southern region, the price of live pigs fluctuated between 62,000 - 66,000 VND/kg. In the first days of the month, the price of live pigs increased by 1,000 - 2,000 VND/kg, then stabilized, then increased and decreased, and by the end of the month, it decreased by 5,000 VND/kg compared to the end of the previous month.

In the third quarter of 2024, the domestic meat market did not have major fluctuations, and supply always met consumer demand. Pig farming continued to grow, but in September 2024, the consequences of the recent storm No. 3 in the North and African swine fever caused damage to many farms, causing losses in the pig batches prepared for Tet.

Concerns about pork shortage for Lunar New Year

Currently, pig production in small-scale farms has decreased to 35-40%, while pig production in professional households and farms has reached 60-65%. According to recommendations from the Department of Animal Health, small-scale farmers in epidemic areas should not restock at all costs, because the disease is still latent and the risk of damage is high.

To ensure a balance between supply and demand, especially during the Lunar New Year, pork supply will have to increase by 10-15%. Therefore, this is the time for livestock units to focus on herd restoration. However, to restore the herd sustainably and ensure supply, disease prevention is a prerequisite.

Mr. Nguyen Kim Doan - Vice President of the Livestock Association of Dong Nai province - said that the pig herd restoration to supply for the Lunar New Year 2025 has started since September, but in Dong Nai, only about 50% of households have restored their herds, the remaining households have chosen to restore their herds in mid-October, when the price of piglets tends to decrease slightly. The restoration of the herd is one month later than expected, which could lead to a shortage of pork supply during the Lunar New Year 2025, pushing up meat prices.

Not only predicting a shortage during the upcoming Lunar New Year, the Dong Nai Livestock Association said that the locality has also reduced the amount of pigs supplied to Ho Chi Minh City by about 20%, to less than 4,000 pigs per day.

According to Mr. Doan, the fluctuating price of live pigs is also one of the reasons why farmers are hesitant. Specifically, in September, the price of live pigs fluctuated from 66,000 - 67,000 VND/kg, but in the past half month, the price has decreased to 60,000 - 64,000 VND/kg. Meanwhile, the price of animal feed has been constantly increasing, causing each pig sold to only break even or a profit of only 100,000 - 200,000 VND/pig. Although farmers still make a profit at a price of over 60,000 VND/kg, with the complicated epidemic situation, many households are still worried about the risk of losing everything when investing in herd restoration.

According to the Import-Export Department, Vietnam's meat supply in the coming time will basically meet domestic consumption demand, so it is forecasted that imports of meat and meat products will not increase dramatically. In particular, imported meat and meat products in the coming time will mainly be types of meat and edible by-products after slaughtering poultry; fresh and frozen buffalo, beef, and pork meat; edible by-products after slaughtering frozen live pigs, buffalo, and cows, etc.

Source: https://congthuong.vn/nhap-khau-thit-heo-co-xu-huong-tang-tro-lai-tu-thang-52024-den-nay-357767.html