Surpassing all forecasts, the economy grew 6.93% in the second quarter and 6.42% in the first six months, creating momentum for growth in the second half of the year and the whole year of 2024.
Growth beyond scenario, beyond forecast
Surpassing all forecasts, GDP growth in the second quarter of 2024 has nearly reached 7%, reaching 6.93%, bringing GDP growth in the first 6 months to 6.42%. When announcing these figures last weekend, Ms. Nguyen Thi Huong, Director General of the General Statistics Office, emphasized the recovery trend of the economy.
Compared to the 2020-2024 period, these are also very positive growth rates. According to the General Statistics Office, the growth rate of the second quarter of this year is only lower than the growth rate of 7.83% in the second quarter of 2022, much higher than the 0.34% increase in the second quarter of 2020, as well as the 4.25% increase in the second quarter of last year. In 2021, the GDP growth rate in the second quarter was 6.55%, still lower than the figure in the second quarter of this year.
The growth rate in the first 6 months of the year is similar, only lower than the growth rate of 6.58% in the first 6 months of 2022 in the period 2020-2024. Specifically, the GDP growth rate in the first 6 months of the year compared to the same period last year in the years 2020-2024 is 1.74%; 5.71%; 6.58%; 3.84% and 6.42%, respectively.
“The economy has achieved a positive growth rate, exceeding the growth scenario set out in Resolution No. 01/NQ-CP,” Deputy Minister of Planning and Investment Tran Quoc Phuong told reporters of Dau Tu Newspaper.
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| Economic growth in the second quarter of this year is only lower than the 7.83% growth rate of the second quarter of 2022, much higher than the second quarter of 2020 and the second quarter of 2023. Photo: Duc Thanh. Graphics: Dan Nguyen |
After the first quarter achieved a growth rate of 5.66%, higher than the proposed scenario, the Ministry of Planning and Investment has forecasted two growth scenarios for 2024. Specifically, in scenario 1, the economic growth for the whole year is expected to reach 6%, which is the lower limit of the target set by the National Assembly. In scenario 2, the economic growth for the whole year reaches 6.5%, the upper limit of the target set by the National Assembly.
To achieve this figure, the last 9 months of the year must increase by about 6.75%; of which, growth in the second quarter is 6.32%, the third and fourth quarters are 6.79% and 7.08% respectively. Growth in each quarter is about 0.1 percentage points higher than the upper limit of the scenario set out in Resolution No. 01/NQ-CP.
At that time, the Ministry of Planning and Investment recommended that the Government choose scenario 2 for proactive management. “In the context of more favorable changes in the world and domestic situation, we will continue to research and implement new support policies on fiscal and monetary policies... to strive for the highest growth rate,” said Minister of Planning and Investment Nguyen Chi Dung.
And it is true that the economy is proceeding according to scenario 2 that the Ministry of Planning and Investment has updated. The economy has recovered more strongly than expected, higher than all forecasts. The forecasts recently made by international financial institutions, typically UOB Bank, only said that Vietnam's GDP growth in the second quarter would reach about 6%. Even before the General Statistics Office announced the official figures, when the Macroeconomic Management Coordination Working Group (Group 1317) met, the forecast was only that GDP growth in the second quarter would reach 6.2%, and that of the first 6 months would be 6%.
Opportunity for economic acceleration
With such GDP growth rates in the second quarter and the first half of the year, it is entirely possible to expect an acceleration of the economy in the second half of 2024. “Economic growth in the following quarter is higher than the previous quarter, industries and sectors have achieved many important results, creating momentum for growth in the following quarters,” said Ms. Nguyen Thi Huong.
According to the economic growth scenario set out in Resolution 01/NQ-CP of the Government, for the economy to grow by 6-6.5% this year, the first quarter must grow by 5.2-5.6%; the second quarter by 5.8-6.2%; the first six months by 5.5-6%; the third quarter by 6.2-6.7%; the first nine months by 5.7-6.2%; and the fourth quarter by 6.5-7%. 
Deputy Minister Tran Quoc Phuong emphasized that GDP growth in the second quarter and the first six months will create momentum for growth in the third quarter. “This is the basis for us to strive to achieve and exceed the National Assembly's goals for the whole year,” said Deputy Minister Tran Quoc Phuong.
There are many positive macroeconomic indicators. Industrial production is an example. In the first 6 months of the year, the industry maintained its growth momentum, some key industrial products increased quite well, meeting the needs of new orders of enterprises.
As a result, the added value of the entire industry in the first 6 months of 2024 increased by 7.54% over the same period last year, only lower than the 8.32% increase in the same period in 2022 in the 2020-2024 period, contributing 2.44 percentage points to the growth rate of the total added value of the entire economy. In particular, the processing and manufacturing industry affirmed its position as the growth driver of the entire economy with a growth rate of 8.67%, contributing 2.14 percentage points.
Meanwhile, the construction industry increased by 7.34%. This is the highest increase compared to the same period in the 2020-2024 period, contributing 0.48 percentage points. The service sector also contributed greatly to growth. The added value of the service sector in the first 6 months of 2024 increased by 6.64% over the same period last year. The positive recovery trend of tourism, wholesale, retail services, etc. contributed greatly to the growth rate of the service sector.
The same goes for import and export. In the first 6 months, the total import and export turnover of goods reached 368.53 billion USD, up 15.7% over the same period last year. Of which, exports reached over 190 billion USD, up 14.5%; imports reached 178.45 billion USD, up 17%. The trade balance of goods had a surplus of 11.63 billion USD.
At the meeting of Group 1317, members from the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the Ministry of Finance and the State Bank all had positive assessments of the economy, especially in the second half of the year, when the recovery trend of global trade and investment flows is more positive, which will impact the Vietnamese economy. The upturn in the economies of the US, South Korea, Europe, China, etc. can create a positive effect on the Vietnamese economy. Financial institutions such as UOB and Standard Chartered also forecast that the Vietnamese economy will recover more positively in the second half of the year.
Of course, there are still huge difficulties, but the economic growth picture in the first half of the year is opening up great expectations for the economy in 2024.
Source: https://baodautu.vn/nen-kinh-te-phuc-hoi-vuot-du-bao-d218916.html
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