(CLO) On January 14, the US and Armenia signed a security agreement to promote bilateral cooperation. In the context of the White House suspending its partnership with Georgia, the US-Armenia agreement is considered a move to gain Washington's foothold in the South Caucasus.
US efforts to increase influence in the South Caucasus
The administration of outgoing President Joe Biden is once again seeking to deepen the rift between Russia and its close allies. On January 14, a new chapter in the strategic partnership between the United States and Armenia was signed in Washington.
US Secretary of State Blinken said that a special committee will be established and the recently signed US-Armenia partnership agreement will bring many opportunities to expand cooperation between the two countries, especially in the fields of economy, defense and security.
It is known that preparations for signing the agreement began about 6 months ago. In June 2024, after a special meeting, the two governments adopted a joint statement on plans to elevate the dialogue to a strategic partnership.
US Secretary of State 0 Armenia signs strategic partnership agreement in Washington. Photo: GI/Izvestia
The core content of the agreement concerns military cooperation. Accordingly, the US side pledged to support the modernization of defense systems, organize exercises and “provide Yerevan with stronger tools to protect its sovereignty”. Thus, Armenia is the only country in the South Caucasus region that has such a tight security agreement with the US. Previously, in November 2024, Washington suspended strategic dialogue with Georgia.
According to Dmitry Sidorov, head of the Department of Foreign Regional Studies at Moscow State Linguistic University, the aim of the Joe Biden administration is to expand its influence in the South Caucasus. However, the new US-Armenia agreement is more political in nature, and whether Washington will fully implement its obligations in the agreement remains a difficult question to answer.
It is assumed that Armenia will receive support from the US in military and economic reforms, but this does not mean that the US military will directly intervene in a possible conflict. In other words, this new agreement will not provide Armenia with security guarantees on the same level as those currently available between the US and Israel or the US and Ukraine.
Tigran Meloyan, an analyst at the Center for Mediterranean Studies at the Higher School of Economics (HSE), said that four pillars will be of decisive importance for strengthening cooperation between the US and Armenia: democratic institutions, economy, energy, and security.
The new strategic partnership agreement aims to systematize the interaction between the two countries, open up opportunities for cooperation in new areas, and make necessary adjustments to existing agendas. From here, leaders at all levels of the United States and Armenia will regularly have contacts and exchanges to implement joint programs.
US-Armenia cooperation agreement poses “threat” to Russia
Responding to the new cooperation agreement between the US and Armenia, on January 14, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated that the Armenian government should resolve issues with neighboring countries, instead of seeking support from the EU and the US.
Many are concerned that the new US-Armenia cooperation agreement could have negative effects on the South Caucasus region, especially in relations with Russia. The US-Armenia strategic partnership is associated with unfriendly steps towards Russia, although the Kremlin has repeatedly stressed that Armenia has the right to develop relations with any country, including the US. However, concerns that the signing of the new US-Armenia cooperation agreement will significantly cool relations with Moscow are well-founded.
Cooperation between the US and Armenia has been steadily strengthened in recent times. Photo: GI/Izvestia
According to Dmitry Sidorov, the signing of the strategic partnership agreement with the United States is a continuation of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's efforts to create distance between Yerevan and Moscow; at the same time, it is a big step for Armenia to drift towards Western structures and harm multilateral projects of the Eurasian cooperation space.
Although Armenian officials have said they will remain a member of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and have no intention of leaving the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), the rapprochement between Yerevan and Washington could, in one way or another, affect cooperation with Moscow, most notably the fate of two Russian military bases stationed in Gyumri and Yerevan since 1995, according to Dmitry Sidorov.
In addition, this will also negatively impact the relationship between Armenia and Azerbaijan. In the context of escalating tensions in the relationship between the West and Georgia, Armenia's move closer to the West to escape Russia's "orbit of influence", the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict has many potential risks, creating a very complex and unpredictable space in the South Caucasus region.
Obviously, the unstable security situation in the region is giving the US and the West a very suitable reason to strengthen defense cooperation with Russia's neighboring countries, at the same time attracting these countries to expand cooperation with the West, receiving protection from the Western security "umbrella" in the context that these countries no longer trust Russia as before. Although the cooperation programs between Armenia and Western countries have not been strongly implemented, they have gradually brought this country closer to NATO defense standards and away from the CSTO.
As for Russia, Armenia's promotion of political and military cooperation with the US and the West is a scenario that Russia absolutely does not want, because this reflects the reality that Russia's influence in the strategic Caucasus region is weakening.
Russia still attaches great importance to its alliance with Armenia because of Yerevan’s important role and position in the Russian security environment, being in the “orbit of influence” and being a strategic security buffer zone of Russia. Therefore, it is not excluded that in the coming time, Russia will take measures to “toughen up” and retain its ally from the West’s enticement.
Despite the difficult bilateral relations, Armenia remains economically heavily dependent on Russia. According to the Armenian Statistical Committee, Armenia's trade with EAEU countries in 2023 accounted for 36.8% of the country's total trade; of which, trade with Russia amounted to more than 7.3 billion USD, up 43.3% compared to 2022. In addition, up to 40% of total foreign investment in the Armenian economy comes from Russian investors, reaching nearly 2.2 billion USD. In terms of energy, Armenia is in great need of supplies from Russian energy corporations.
In early 2024, Armenian and Russian representatives signed a contract to modernize and extend the operating life of Armenia’s Metsamor Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) until 2036. The upgrade will be carried out by Rustatom Services JSC, a subsidiary of Russia’s state nuclear energy corporation Rosatom, with an investment of $65 million from the Armenian government. The deal is another sign of Russia’s growing influence in Armenia’s energy infrastructure.
Hung Anh
Source: https://www.congluan.vn/no-luc-cua-my-nham-tang-cuong-anh-huong-o-nam-kavkaz-post330933.html
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