First quarter bank profits are expected to have a...

There is a clear differentiation

SSI Securities Corporation has just announced the estimated business results for the first quarter of 2025 of 39 enterprises in the research scope, including 13 banks. According to the forecast, 11 banks will record positive profit growth compared to the same period, one bank will maintain its profit, while one bank will see a decline.

SSI believes that Sacombank, VietinBank, VPBank, HDBank, BIDV, MB, ACB and MSB will have double-digit profit growth in Q1/2025 compared to the same period last year. Notably, Sacombank leads with a growth rate of 51%, thanks to low provisioning costs due to stable asset quality. In addition, the bank's NIM may recover slightly compared to the previous quarter, helping pre-tax profit reach VND4,000 billion, up 51% over the same period but down 14% compared to Q4/2024.

VietinBank expects to achieve pre-tax profit of VND8,800 billion, up 42% year-on-year, thanks to credit growth reaching 5% by the end of the first quarter and a low profit base in the first quarter of 2024.

VPBank is also expected to have a credit growth of 5% compared to the beginning of the year, with improved asset quality becoming the main driving force to help pre-tax profit reach an estimated VND5,500 billion, up 32% over the same period.

HDBank, MSB and Techcombank are forecast to have positive profit growth thanks to strong credit growth. HDBank is expected to achieve VND4,800 billion in pre-tax profit (up 19% YoY, up 18% QoQ), thanks to credit growth of about 6% and stable NIM. MSB is estimated to achieve VND1,700 billion in pre-tax profit, up 11% YoY, with strong credit growth of 6%.

Techcombank is expected to achieve pre-tax profit of VND8,300 billion, up 6% year-on-year and 77% quarter-on-quarter, thanks to credit growth of about 6.5% and NIM recovery. Meanwhile, BIDV forecasts pre-tax profit of about VND8,000 - 8,500 billion, up 8 - 15% year-on-year, thanks to stable credit growth (up 2% year-on-year) and NIM slightly improved from the low level of Q1/2024.

Banks’ Q1/2025 business results will be announced at the upcoming annual general meeting of shareholders. However, at present, some analysis organizations have made forecasts for profits for this quarter as well as the whole year 2025.

Will 2025 profits increase sharply?

Despite slightly adjusting down its forecast for banking industry profit growth in 2025 from 20.2% to 17.7% due to concerns about high provisioning levels, MBS Securities Company still forecasts that the net profits of private and state-owned banks will increase by 19.8% and 14.7%, respectively. Of which, VietinBank, OCB, Techcombank, HDBank, MB… will record significant profit growth.

MBS said that state-owned banks are under pressure from higher lending rates than private banks. Due to their role in stabilizing the macroeconomy, they are more cautious in expanding retail credit, which limits the growth of NIM. VietinBank and OCB's after-tax profits are forecast to increase sharply in 2025, reaching 30.8% and 32.6%, respectively.

According to KB Securities Vietnam (KBSV), MB can achieve a profit growth of 12% in 2025, while the problem of bad debt is no longer a major concern. It is forecasted that credit at MB will increase by over 20% in the 2025-2027 period thanks to many favorable factors, however, NIM may be under pressure in the short term.

In addition, the profits of banks such as ACB, TPBank, Eximbank, Techcombank, VIB, HDBank, VPBank, etc. are all forecast to increase by over 18%. Meanwhile, four banks including MB, BIDV, Sacombank and Vietcombank have single-digit profit growth. Credit growth remains the key factor supporting the banking industry's profits in 2025.

Credit growth across the sector is expected to increase by 17-18% in 2025, thanks to a strong recovery in the production and consumption sectors, especially retail credit. State Bank Deputy Governor Pham Thanh Ha said that as of March 12, credit had increased by 1.24% compared to the beginning of the year, after falling by 0.74% in February 2024.

Banking and finance experts believe that although NIM will not increase sharply in 2025, rapid credit growth will boost non-interest income to improve compared to 2024. The proportion of non-interest income to total income is expected to remain at 22%.

Source: https://baodaknong.vn/loi-nhuan-ngan-hang-quy-i-du-bao-co-su-phan-hoa-ro-ret-247807.html