Scenario for gasoline prices at the end of 2024

Oil prices could hit triple digits

Domestic gasoline prices have just increased again after 5 consecutive decreases in the gasoline price adjustment period on August 15. This development, according to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, is due to strong fluctuations in the world price of finished gasoline and oil products, due to fluctuations in crude oil.

According to records, WTI and Brent crude oil prices were under great pressure in July. With 4 consecutive weeks of decline, world oil prices fell nearly 15% during this period and at one point hit a 7-month low.

Data from the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV) shows that at the end of the trading session on August 13, WTI oil price reached 78.35 USD/barrel, while Brent crude oil closed at 81.19 USD/barrel. Thus, in just over a week, oil prices have increased by more than 5% in value.

Assessing the price outlook in the coming time, in an interview with Lao Dong, Mr. Duong Duc Quang - Deputy General Director of MXV - said that in the current period, supply and demand factors will support prices in the short term, world oil prices may continue to fluctuate around 80 USD/barrel, at least until the end of the third quarter, coinciding with the time when the market expects the FED to lower interest rates. However, pressure may return to dominate the market after the peak consumption season passes and OPEC+ gradually pumps more supply into the market.

With the political situation in the Middle East, MXV representative said that with a series of leading crude oil producers and exporters, the scenario of escalating conflict will be the factor pushing oil prices to the threshold of 85-90 USD/barrel, or even reaching the triple digit mark.

World oil prices account for 64-72% of the price structure, leading to domestic prices being completely dependent on international prices. Therefore, Mr. Quang believes that there are still many factors affecting domestic oil prices in the last months of the year, including geopolitical factors and the FED's interest rate management moves...

Is the supply of gasoline guaranteed?

Mr. Phan Van Chinh - Director of the Domestic Market Department, said that in 2024, the total minimum source of gasoline and oil allocated by the Ministry of Industry and Trade to 36 key gasoline and oil traders will be 28.4 million m3/ton of all types of gasoline and oil.

In the first 6 months of the year, Dung Quat and Nghi Son Oil Refineries produced 6.87 million tons, equivalent to about 8.3 million m3/ton of gasoline and oil of all kinds, an increase of 4% over the same period in 2023.

Forecasting the supply of gasoline and oil in the last 6 months of the year, the Domestic Market Department said that the domestic gasoline and oil production output is about 8.26 million tons, equivalent to 9.9 million m3/ton of gasoline and oil of all kinds. Enterprises will import 4.5 million tons (equivalent to about 5.4 million m3/ton of gasoline and oil of all kinds).

Accordingly, the total production and import source is about 12.76 million tons, equivalent to about 15.3 million m3/ton. The Domestic Market Department forecasts the demand for gasoline and oil in the last 6 months of the year to be about 13.2 million m3/ton. Thus, the supply of gasoline and oil ensures domestic consumption demand.

According to calculations, in the last 6 months of the year, domestic gasoline consumption demand is equivalent to the first half of the year, about 13.2 million m3/ton. The total domestic production and import source is estimated to be 12.76 million tons, equivalent to 15.3 million m3/ton, ensuring enough for consumption demand and having an inventory of 1.8 - 2 million tons.

To ensure sufficient gasoline for domestic consumption, the Ministry of Industry and Trade requires 36 key traders to ensure supply in the last 6 months of the year, strictly report production, import, and purchase plans for gasoline from oil refineries, and reserve for circulation; absolutely do not interrupt the supply in the system (from key traders, distributors, to retail enterprises).

In particular, the functional sector will closely monitor the implementation of the minimum total source of key traders, especially those traders with low implementation in the past.

This is to avoid the situation of uneven import and purchase of domestically produced gasoline and oil by traders like in the first half of the year, affecting the implementation of the total source of the whole country.

Source: https://laodong.vn/kinh-doanh/kich-ban-cho-gia-xang-dau-cuoi-nam-2024-1381431.ldo