Gold price today 19-5: Plunging without brakes

Domestic gold price today

Early this morning, the domestic gold price reversed and increased slightly and maintained trading at nearly 67 million VND/tael. Currently, the domestic precious metal price is listed specifically as follows:

SJC gold price in Hanoi and Da Nang is currently being bought at 66.55 million VND/tael and sold at 67.17 million VND/tael. In Ho Chi Minh City, SJC gold is still being bought at the same price as in Hanoi and Da Nang but sold at 20,000 VND lower.

DOJI brand gold price in Hanoi is listed at 66.5 million VND/tael for buying and 67.1 million VND/tael for selling. In Ho Chi Minh City, this brand gold is being bought at 100,000 VND higher but sold at the same price as in Hanoi.

Phu Quy SJC gold price is listed at 66.55 million VND/tael for buying and 67.15 million VND/tael for selling. PNJ gold is listed at 66.6 million VND/tael for buying and 67.2 million VND/tael for selling. Bao Tin Bao Tin Minh Chau gold is listed at 66.57 million VND/tael for buying and 67.12 million VND/tael for selling.

Domestic gold price updated at 5:30 am on May 19 as follows:

Yellow	Area	Early morning 18-5		Early morning 19-5			Difference
		Buy	Sell	Buy	Sell		Buy	Sell
		Unit of measure: Million VND/tael					Unit of measure: Thousand dong/tael
DOJI	Hanoi	66.45	67.05	66.5		67.1	+50	+50
DOJI	Ho Chi Minh City	66.5	67.05	66.6		67.1	+100	+50
Phu Quy SJC	Hanoi	66.5	67.1	66.55		67.15	+50	+50
PNJ	Ho Chi Minh City	66.55	67.15	66.6		67.2	+50	+50
PNJ	Hanoi	66.55	67.15	66.6		67.2	+50	+50
SJC	Ho Chi Minh City	66.5	66.1	66.55		67.15	+50	+50
	Hanoi	66.5	67.12	66.55		67.17	+50	+50
	Danang	66.5	67.12	66.55		67.17	+50	+50
Bao Tin Minh Chau	Nationwide	66.52	67.08	66.57		67.13	+50	+50

World gold price today

World gold prices fell sharply early this morning, with spot gold falling $23.7 to $1,958/ounce. June gold futures last traded at $1,959.8/ounce, down $25.1 compared to early yesterday morning, May 18 (Vietnam time).

The yellow metal suffered a sharp sell-off as the latest data showed signs of stabilization in the US labor market as initial jobless claims fell more than expected. Specifically, the US Department of Labor said weekly jobless claims fell by 22,000 to 242,000 in the week ended May 13, down from 264,000 unconfirmed claims the previous week.

The latest labor market data was significantly better than expected. Economists had expected claims to fall to 254,000. However, Thursday’s data more than doubled the expected decline.

Analysts warn that if it fails to hold the $1,950/ounce level, gold risks further losses.

Factors pushing gold lower include a rebound in the US dollar as markets re-price the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 38% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike in June. Recent macroeconomic data has reinforced this possibility.

According to Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures, the recent data points to the possibility of a soft landing. This has boosted the USD. The US Dollar Index rose 0.62% to 103.52 points early today.

At its May meeting, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell signaled a possible pause in the aggressive monetary policy tightening cycle that has seen interest rates rise 5% in just over a year.

However, many Fed officials remain relatively hawkish, forcing the market to readjust June interest rate expectations and push back hopes of a rate cut by the end of the year.

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said U.S. inflation is not cooling fast enough for the Fed to hit the pause button. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan also said it is too early for the Fed to pause. Streible noted that this week's macro data supports that view. "That pushes back expectations that the Fed will start cutting rates. That's weighing on gold," he said.

It’s too early to tell where the bottom is for gold, but $1,950 an ounce is where it needs to hold, said Frank Cholly, senior market strategist at RJO Futures.

The expert predicts that the precious metal will likely move sideways as it does not find a catalyst at the moment to push prices above $2,000 an ounce. However, if the possibility of a default increases, gold will benefit. Cholly also does not rule out the possibility of the Fed raising rates by another 25 basis points in June.

With the domestic gold price increasing slightly and the world gold price listed at Kitco at 1,958 USD/ounce (equivalent to nearly 55.7 million VND/tael if converted according to Vietcombank exchange rate, excluding taxes and fees), the difference between domestic and world gold prices is currently about 11 million VND/tael.

TRAN HOAI

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