Housing prices in Ho Chi Minh City will continue to increase in the next 10 years

This is the opinion of experts when predicting the market recovery, the impact of new laws, the supply-demand problem and the housing price outlook in the coming years.

Many positive signals after the new Law

On December 18, Ho Chi Minh City Business Association (HUBA) organized a Real Estate Seminar with the theme: "The Road to a New Decade of Growth".

Ms. Duong Thuy Dung, CEO of CBRE Vietnam, shared an overview of the real estate market 10 years ago. This shows that the real estate market is cyclical.

According to Ms. Dung, from 2013-2014, the real estate market gradually recovered from the crisis, with stable supply growth and house prices increasing by an average of 3-4% per year. In particular, the 2014 Land Law replacing the 2003 Law is considered a big boost, creating an important legal foundation for development. However, the market still faces ups and downs.

According to CBRE Vietnam's forecast, the market is starting to show signs of recovery, with about 30,000 new apartments expected to be offered for sale in 2024.

The expert added that the market in 2022-2023 will also face similar difficulties as in 2012 when prices fell. In addition to objective factors, there are also subjective factors such as the prolonged time for licensing and project approval...

Entering 2024, the market is starting to show signs of recovery, with an expected 30,000 new apartments for sale. Notably, Hanoi is currently leading the supply, with more than 27,000 apartments, while Ho Chi Minh City is still facing difficulties due to legal issues. This is a big change compared to before, when Ho Chi Minh City was the center of the market.

Sharing about the policy perspective, Mr. Pham Dang Ho, Head of Housing Development and Real Estate Market Department, Ho Chi Minh City Department of Construction said that currently, new laws such as the Land Law, Housing Law and Real Estate Business Law have helped the market become more transparent and minimize legal risks for businesses and customers. However, legal procedures are still complicated, causing project implementation time to be prolonged, discouraging many businesses.

Ho Chi Minh City has established a special task force to shorten the approval process, integrating steps such as 1/500 planning, land allocation and investment policy approval. In addition, the Ho Chi Minh City master plan is being reviewed by the Ministry of Construction and is expected to be approved in the first quarter of 2025, which will help speed up project implementation in the future.

Regarding social housing, Mr. Ho said that the selling price is currently closely linked to construction costs and investors are exempted from land use fees. However, the supply has not yet received due attention from businesses. The city government is making efforts to promote this segment in 2025, with the goal of highlighting the role of social housing in urban development policies.

Challenges of capital and housing prices

The number that many experts and businesses are interested in is that outstanding credit balance in Ho Chi Minh City reached more than 3.82 million billion VND, up 1.14% compared to the previous month; up 8.1% compared to the end of 2023 and up 12.5% over the same period.

Mr. Nguyen Duc Lenh, Deputy Director of the State Bank of Vietnam, Ho Chi Minh City Branch, said that the credit growth in Ho Chi Minh City in recent months is consistent with the growth trend of the economy. During that process, the capital demand for production, business, trade, services and consumption increased, becoming the main factor driving credit growth in the last month of the year.

However, Dr. Dinh The Hien, a financial expert, said that many real estate businesses are seriously lacking capital, as new capital from banks is not flowing into the market. Financial reports of listed companies show that liquidity is facing major problems.

Regarding housing prices, Ms. Dung predicts that prices will continue to increase by about 10% per year in the next 3 years, especially in the high-end and luxury segments. New supply in Ho Chi Minh City is recovering slowly, expected to be only about 9,000 apartments in 2025 and increase to 11,000 units in 2026. In the short term, housing prices will have little basis to decrease, unless there are strong population dispersion measures, which will take a long time to implement.

“In the mid-range and affordable segments, supply is still seriously lacking, putting great pressure on people’s housing needs. This situation is especially evident in Ho Chi Minh City, where infrastructure has not been improved much and land prices in central areas are high,” Ms. Dung shared.

Mr. Huynh Phuoc Nghia, an expert from the University of Economics, Ho Chi Minh City, also emphasized that people aged 30-35 who currently have an income of less than 2,000 USD/month will find it very difficult to buy a house. It is only possible to own a house in Ho Chi Minh City if they receive support from policies, family or preferential loan funds.

According to experts, expanding transport infrastructure and urbanization in non-central areas will help balance the market and reduce pressure on central areas. However, Mr. Nghia predicts that in the next 10 years, infrastructure in Ho Chi Minh City will still be a big problem, but after this decade, if invested in the right direction, the market will develop more sustainably.

From another perspective, Dr. Dinh The Hien affirmed that the sustainable development of the real estate market must go hand in hand with the real needs of the people. Ho Chi Minh City cannot forever focus on social housing or the high-end segment but needs to invest more heavily in the mid-range segment, serving customers with real housing needs. This will be the key factor to create a sustainable market in the next 10 years.

In general, experts believe that 2025 is considered a pivotal year for the transformation of the real estate market, with great expectations from support policies and the recovery of supply. However, to achieve sustainability, close coordination between the state, businesses and people is needed to remove legal bottlenecks, balance supply and demand and create conditions for everyone to access their dream home.

Source: https://baodautu.vn/batdongsan/gia-nha-tai-tphcm-se-tiep-da-tang-trong-10-nam-toi-d232927.html